Posted on 07/29/2009 12:43:57 AM PDT by DGHoodini
Political hard-liners warned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Tuesday that he could be deposed, as previous Iranian leaders have been, if he continued defying the country's supreme religious leader. More News
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The implied threat was the latest evidence of the rift within Iran's conservative camp and could serve to further sap the authority of a president already considered illegitimate by reformists.
The Islamic Society of Engineers, a political group close to parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani, warned in an open letter to Ahmadinejad that he could suffer the same fate as Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq, who was deposed in a CIA-backed coup with the acquiescence of the clergy. The letter also cited the experience of Abol-Hassan Bani Sadr, who was impeached and fled the country after he fell out with the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Both leaders had been elected by huge margins.
"It seems you want to be the sole speaker and do not want to hear other voices," the group's letter said, noting that recent actions by Ahmadinejad have frustrated his own supporters. "Therefore it is our duty to convey to you the voice of the people."
Meanwhile, Iranians braced for another round of clashes between protesters and security personnel after the Interior Ministry on Tuesday rejected a request to allow supporters of opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi to gather at a large Tehran mosque Thursday. The protest is meant to commemorate those slain in the unrest following Ahmadinejad's disputed June re-election victory over Mousavi.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/29/MNG9190I5P.DTL#ixzz0MdFFa6Ta
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
OR?
OR?
? Could you give a bit more elaboration?
Ah! So you think that the IRGC and the Basij are all monolithic in their support for Amadinijhad? Think again.
Then thete is the regular army, the Intelligence services, the police...IOf this were to become a full fledged fight for control in Iran, it could become a civil war. Don’t forget that while many who live in rural areas are conservatives, tyhey are more Khamenei conservatives than thney are Amadinijhad conservatives...and then there is the urban populations. This could all tyurn into onre great *big* civil war, and it would is not an assured victory gor Amadinijhad or Khamenei, even if all the IRGC were to take one side. It would be more likely that both power bases would be shattered, and the “victor” would find themselves in no position to be able to bring the regular people back to heel, in the aftermath.
Well, OR we will do WHAT? Talk louder...Call Putin? We have no ammunition in this fight so we need to either get out all together or strike (fat chance)...
Could not agree more...but there is nothing that the US can do to support them (actually, vocal support may be worse that non-support). So...we wait and do nothing...
Well, for what it’s worth, my opinion is, is an Iranian fight. we should not set one U.S. combat boot in Iran. Let them nourish the Tree of Liberty themselves. But that doesn’t mean we can’t give them aid and supplies if they want them. Sat uplink data/phones, machine pistols, shoulder fired rockets...
A burqa can easily conceal 2 machine pistols, 20 clips of ammo, 4 grenades, 2 throwing knives, a wire garrote, and even a gas mask...
Agree that it is about all we can do... Too bad though. Like most problems in the Middle East, we have no correct solutions. I would like to see major support for the uprising against the current regime - but how to do that without destroying current relations with other countries is a problem. The Middle East will continue to be a MAJOR problem!
My gut instinct is that this is a setup to get rid of Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader needs an excuse, and Ahmadihejad gave him one. This way, he can onload the unpopular leader, install the guy who really won, and save face and possibly a civil war, or at least the constant demonstrations by the people over the illegal election. Ayatollah Khameini has his back up against the wall right now, and if he wants to continue to maintain control over his people, at least in the short term, he had better get rid of ImaNutJob, and fast. So NutJob’s days are numbered, as Khameini doesn’t want his numbered also. He doesn’t want NutJob to take him down with him. NutJob is expendable.
I have to say that your idea is far-fetched! The idea that the ruling body (Supreme Leaders) would or could care about booting Ahmadinejad is a stretch! If they really wanted him out, they would have rigged the election or just given him a vote of no confidence.
Obviously, his continued reign has NOT prevented the revolt so either his controllers have misjudged the situation or the public has decided enough is enough... I vote for the latter.
What?ou really think that the other Middle Eastern Countries wouldn’t love to see the Shia “Islamic revolution” go down in flames? Most of them are frightened by Iran and their actions to forment the spread of radical Shiism into *their* countries. They may not want to say it publicly, but they see Iran as a threat, and they are right in doing so. Some aren’t even being shy about it. Saudi Arabia has recently made their opinion of Iran clear, ajnd it was iin the form of a blood threat.
I just read a blogsite that has suggested a “death Watvh” for Amadinijhad, for this reason. Figuring he’s a marked man. >Bo)
It’s not so clear, cut and dried. Back when Amadinijhad was first up for Presidential election, he was not the favorite of Khamenei, and when he won, he was given a cool congrats by Khamenei, who had another as a favorite. But Khamenei’s son, who is rumored to be his fathers chosen succesor as Grand as Supreme Leader, was well on his way, moving up the chain of authority, buty in the background of the Intelligence and control of the IRGC, and is reputed to not only be the architec t of Amadinijhads “re-election”, but the violent crackdowns afterward.
Yes, other countries are afraid of a nuclear Iran... Amadinijhad is in power because the religious leaders want him to be in charge. He will be rejected when he is no longer of use...(they like his nuclear plans).
Other countries may want to see Amadinijhad overthrown, but not in a way that involves them. Sure, they fear Iran and its’ nuclear ambitions but they are also afraid of any intervention, so they wait and hope (kind of like the US).
So...like them, we mosey along and wait for the big bang.
Too late, the damage is done. The effects of his relentless, reckless and over-exuberant saber-rattling have so unnerved the Israelis that an attack on his nuclear toys is almost assured.
All of the Iranian blustering and photoshopped missile images notwithstanding, it will prove to be a one-sided rout. The Iranians may get lucky and land a missile somewhere that it can do some damage, but then they had better hope to their satanic Allah that the Israelis do not respond in kind or they are cooked.
The Israelis will fight ‘nice’ and go after the military targets and try to avoid civilian casualties. The Iranians will not. If they manage to harm large numbers of Israelis, they are screwed.
Strange...they go to all this trouble to rig the election for Ahmadinejad, put down riot after riot, put the legitimacy of their regime on the line, and now just a week before he’s due to be sworn in they’re telling him he could get the boot. Oh dear, did the mullahs’ election plan backfire? (snicker)
The regime is so divided it’s tearing itself apart now. It can’t stand much longer.
The regime's biggest opponents are the productive middle class who keep the economy rolling.
The regime's big supporters are the rural poor, the recipients of Islamic welfare via the Islamic zakat tax. The Basiji are mainly recruited from the poor (think ACORN with weapons).
When the conflict finally turns into civil war, it will not be pretty. I think the conflict is inevitable, and will occur when the middle class finally does an "Atlas Shrugs" and acts to deprive the regime of the funds needed to buy the support of the poor.
One problem with that: NutJob is from the Revolutionary Guard, and is the guy who allows the Guard to have such a lucrative hold on the economy. The Guard does not want to be taken off the gravy train.
Amadinijhad is already helping the cause:
“# Just before the election Ahmadinejad increased government pensioners’ checks. He got their vote. After the election, he reduced the checks. Pensioners must’ve thought they’d been played for Louisiana constituents. Their checks are quivering.
# Ahmadinejad is threatening to fire ministers, ministers are refusing to attend meetings, and some are walking out of the cabinet entirely. Most of this is symbolic. Next week Ahmadinejad is inaugurated for his second term, at which point he’ll have to submit his new list of ministers to Parliament for confirmation. The clashes are making him appear even weaker than he already was.”
;o)
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