Posted on 11/01/2009 8:19:45 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.
Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.
Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.
As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.
As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.
In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.
Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.
Full results here
Yeah but the polls open in less than 36 hours.
What will money do now for Christie? Last minute tv ads? Isn’t ad time for tonight already all booked up?
I’d just want to have some serious $$$ in reserve in case Corzine pulls something, tho usually by Monday it’s too late. Dirty tricks usually come the FR/SA/SU before elections if they’re to be effective. Alas, with Corzine’s endless $$ (say for ACORN ‘volunteers’)I’d be concerned if I were Christie.
Hillary is gonna challenge “the one” in “12”.
Here's something I have yet to post at The Dark Underbelly and America Held Hostage-- a little snippet from the blogosphere:
Newt gets read the riot act-- and the plain truth-- at his own blog here:
"Can you hear us now," indeed.
And it applies to both parties.
I am damned sick and tired ( to use Hillarrheah!'s memorable screech ) of overpaid, overfed popinjay's in $3,000 Armani suits dictating my life, picking my pocket, and then ignoring me.
And I doubt I am alone in that.
This is supposed to be a nation of free men, not government drones...
Nov. 3 is going to be...
"interesting..."
I’m praying this is true and holds, and that Christie has a good ground game and plenty of poll watchers with their antennae tuned to ACORN and union thug activities.
They poll for the rats, but they’re not a push-poller AFAIK. I read a lot about pollsters last year before the election, and, IIRC, PPP is considered reputable and has decent accuracy. Rasmussen has the highest accuracy.
NY-23 is by no means in the bag. According to Hoffman, ACORN and union thugs are already messing with ballots. It’d be good if we had FReepers who could go up there and help.
Maybe we need to train tea partiers on how to police polls and watch ballots, follw the people carrying ballots, etc., and how to spot and perhaps stop trouble such as ballot fraud/disappearing and reappearing ballots, how to spot ACORN and union activity such that tea partiers could actually be more pro-active than carrying a message. That’s important, but elections are more important. And I think preventing thugs from stealing elections is more valuable. I can envision tea party caravans spreading out during election day to stop the election theft.
Polls in Jersey mean nothing.
They need foreign poll watchers to keep an eye on fraud.
Lots of dead folks will keep the dem in powere in Jersey.
-PJ
Maybe we can all get together tomorrow in downtown Newark to set them straight. /sarcasm, of course
Now that's exciting. Go Christie!
Not sure what you mean - that the "everything but marriage" law isn't going to be flushed?
Let’s practice ABC in New Jersey - Anyone But Corzine!
...And a Republican majority could impeach Obama as early as 2011.
Corzine has been capped near 42% in all of the latest polls. It would be very difficult for him to win with those numbers. Now it looks like the undecideds are breaking heavily toward Christie.
Well it looks like Butch Gould up in Corinna was a little less persuasive than anticipated!
Dem outfit, but they seem to be pretty well in the ballpark. Please, NJ... throw Corzine out and prove my past statements wrong!
The problem with this poll is that they neglected to poll dead voters.
bttt
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