Posted on 01/27/2010 4:18:03 PM PST by MitchellC
Taken Jan. 22-24, 600 voters, margin of error +/-4%.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance?
If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you're not sure, press 3.
Approve 46%
Disapprove 49%
Not Sure 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman John Spratt’s job performance?
If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve 41%
Disapprove 42%
Not Sure 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mick Mulvaney?
If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Favorable 14%
Unfavorable 24%
Not Sure 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Albert Spencer?
If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Favorable 8%
Unfavorable 17%
Not Sure 75%
Q5 If the candidates for Congress this fall were Democrat John Spratt and Republican Mick Mulvaney, who would you vote for?
If John Spratt, press 1. If Mick Mulvaney, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Spratt 46%
Mulvaney 39%
Undecided 15%
Q6 If the candidates for Congress this fall were Democrat John Spratt and Republican Albert Spencer, who would you vote for?
If John Spratt, press 1. If Albert Spencer, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Spratt 46%
Spencer 37%
Q7 Do you think that John Spratt is too conservative, too liberal, or about right? If too conservative, press 1.
If too liberal, press 2. If about right, press 3. If you’re not sure, press 4.
Too Conservative 9%
Too Liberal 34%
About Right 47%
Not Sure 10%
Q8 Do you support or oppose the health care bill the House of Representatives passed in November?
If you support it, press 1. If you oppose it, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Support 33%
Oppose 51%
Not Sure 16%
Q9 Do you think that John Spratt voted for or against the health care bill?
If you think he voted for it, press 1. If you think he voted against it, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Voted for it 62%
Voted against it 9%
Not Sure 29%
Undecided 17%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing?
If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve 37%
Disapprove 55%
Not Sure 8%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Republicans in Congress are doing?
If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve 27%
Disapprove 58%
Not Sure 15%
Q12 Do you think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal, too conservative, or about right? If too liberal, press 1.
If too conservative, press 2. If about right, press 3.
Too Liberal 48%
Too Conservative 12%
About Right 40%
Q13 Do you think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
If too liberal, press 1. If too conservative, press 2. If about right, press 3.
Too Liberal 23%
Too Conservative 34%
About Right 43%
Q14 Who did you vote for President last year?
If John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press 2. If someone else or you don’t remember, press 3.
McCain 51%
Obama 46%
Someone Else/Don't Remember 3%
Q15 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate, press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal 12%
Moderate 44%
Conservative 44%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman 53%
Man 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat 41%
Republican 35%
Independent/Other 23%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African American, press 2. If other, press 3.
White 66%
African American 30%
Other 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29 8%
30 to 45 22%
46 to 65 49%
Older than 65 21%
Continued for Cross-Tabs
distraction ..
Excuse me?
Spratt was nearly defeated last election. This time we have more ammo. This is in my district.I will start promoting Mulvaney tomorrow morning.
He presents himself as fiscally conservative. Surely that can’t be hard to disprove this time. And I just have to ask; is it true his wife can eat no lean?
Mitch,
I thought that it was pretty good, actually. For a guy that has been around as long as Spratt to poll below 50%, that flashes danger for his re-election.
With a margin of error of +/-4% in this poll, Mulvaney at -7 is within the margin of error, and statistically, might even be leading by 1.
Voters seem to be unfamiliar with Mulvaney. When asked if they view him favorably or unfavorably, 62% answered “Not Sure”. They do know John Spratt, and by 42 to 41% they disapprove of his job performance. Mulvaney needs to introduce himself to the district.
47% of the voters believe that John Spratt’s Ideology is “About right” for the district, yet 38% are either unaware or are misinformed of the fact that he voted for the health care bill. Since only 33% of the voters support the health care bill, Mulvaney should be able to make up ground with this group.
With 9 months until Election Day, I’m sure this campaign can be successful.
O'Bonzo's approval rating only at -3% in this district? 44% call themselves "moderate"? "Moderate" normally means: "liberal, but too gutless to admit it". They'll vote the wrong way when the time comes, especially since Spratt is a "moderate" too.
No need to abandon hope in SC-5 but I thought the district was more right-leaning than it appears to be based on this poll.
You’re absolutely right. There’s a clear path for Mulvaney according to these numbers.
As an aside, it’s interesting to see the different spin on the same polling data, some from the exact same outlets...
“Poll: Spratt leads would be opponent” (The State)
“Poll says Spratt not supported by majority in district” (The State)
“Poll: Spratt faces challenges in November election” (The Herald)
“Poll: Spratt would beat challengers” (The Herald)
“SC-5 Poll: Good News For Spratt” (RealClearPolitics)
“Spratt leads Mulvaney by 7 points” (Politico)
“Spratt faces a battle, but at least he leads” (The Hill)
I noticed that, too, especially the local papers. At first they seemed to give an edge to Mulvaney, and then about half an hour later, the tune changed.
Think they got a call from the Chairman?
No need to be discouraged at all, and I tried to temper any wild expectations of Spratt cratering. These numbers are actually quite good, if you know the realities of the district:
- The district is very mixed, with overwhelmingly Republican parts in the west, trending Republican parts in the Charlotte suburbs, overwhelmingly Dem parts in the east that would just as soon elect another Jim Clyburn, and mixed parts at all points in between.
- The district has voted Republican by a very strong margin at the presidential level for at least the last decade. 2008 was less of a margin than 2000 and 2004 because of the Obama campaign’s concentration on the Charlotte media market, and McCain’s complete neglect of it, along with the huge black turnout.
- As of right now, Mulvaney probably has little name ID outside of York/Lancaster counties. Spratt is a 30 year incumbent, yet he’s ahead only 7. Mulvaney has yet to run any ads.
Like most places, we can’t sit back and expect some all-powerful ‘national trend’ to deliver us this district. It will take work. But as of right now, I actually think we have a better chance of picking this one up than we do NC-8, which has similar demographics and voting trends, and which the NRCC plans on targeting hard. (BOTH should be targeted of course, my point here is that SC-5 is even more favorable to us.)
The papers’ editors probably knocked on the door and asked why Spratt being ahead wasn’t the highlight.
More good polling news.
The same editors that will endorse Spratt...
LOL I’ve arrogantly come to expect to see rat incumbents trailing so at first glance I was disappointed. ;)
Not bad numbers at all. Spratt’s under 50 and his unfavorable is higher than his favorable.
Favorable district, favorable electoral climate, top tier challenger - I do believe Spratt is going down.
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