GOP Candidates Lead For Both NH House Seats

There's still the better part of a year to go, but prospects for some GOP House seat pickups in New Hampshire look pretty healthy:

According to a new poll by the University of New Hampshire only 35% of likely voters approve of the job [Rep. Carol] Shea-Porter is doing in Congress. 40% disapprove. 24% are neutral or don’t know for sure how they feel. Even worse, all potential Republican candidates for Congress — even the lesser-known candidates — would defeat her if the election were held today. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta performs best against Shea-Porter, defeating her in a hypothetical match up 43% -33%.

But at least things look better for Democrats in the state's other seat. Oh, wait, they don't.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Smith said name recognition works for Republican Charlie Bass, who has 37 percent of the vote against Democrat Katrina Swett's 30 percent. Bass also is getting 39 percent support against Ann McLane Kuster's 28 percent.

Well, that open seat in the 2nd district is from a congressman running for the Senate, so they've got their A-team of talent in the statewide race . . . eh, no, never mind, things look bad there, too:

In the Senate race, most eyes are on Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes versus Republican Kelly Ayotte. The poll shows Hodes with 33 percent support compared to Ayotte's 41 percent. But Smith said that even more concerning for Democrats is that even though Hodes leads his other contenders, he never breaks 40 percent. Hodes gets 38 percent against Republican Ovid Lamontagne's 29, 36 percent against Republican Jim Bender's 27 and 34 percent against Bill Binnie, who trails him by 4 points.

Hey, New Hampshire Democrats can look at the bright side. They're on pace to enjoy a really early first-round draft pick in 2011.

This is what I posted on this poll on another thread:

A new poll from UNH shows conservative Republican Mayor Frank Guinta of Manchester leading moonbat Congresswoman Shea-Porter in the slightly-GOP-leaning NH-01 by 41%-33% among likely voters. Shea-Porter does not break 40% against any of the other Republican candidates, and NH adults have a net unfavorable opinion of her, with 35% having a favorable opinion and 40% having an unfavorable opinion of her.

In the Democrat-leaning NH-02, 44% of NH adults have a favorable opinion of moderate former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass, with 19% having an unfavorable opinion. Bass leads Democrat frontrunner Katrina Swett (whom he soundly defeated in 2002 in a huge disappointment for Democrats) by 37%-30% among likely voters, and Bass leads Ann McLane Kuster (the other Democrat with a chance to win the primary) by 39%-28%.

Meanwhile, conservative radio talkshow host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn is still largely unknown in the NH-02, with only 15% of NH adults having a favorable opinion of her and 9% having an unfavorable opinion of her. Horn leads Kuster by 28%-25%, but Swett leads Horn by 30%-26%.

In the Senate race, the poll shows conservative Republican former AG Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Congressman Paul Hodes by 41%-33% in the Senate race among likely voters. 38% of NH adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, with only 12% having an unfavorable opinion of her; these numbers are much better than those of Hodes, regarding whom 32% of NH adults have a favorable opinion and 27% have an unfavorable opinion.

Meanwhile, conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne remains largely unknown in the state, with 12% of NH adults having a favorable opinion of him and 9% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Hodes leads Lamontagne among likely voters by 38%-29%; indeed, Hodes runs stronger against Lamontagne than even against two nobodies also seeking the GOP nomination.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_congapp20810.pdf

I think that this poll confirms what I had assumed all along: that Ayotte would almost certainly beat Hodes while Lamontagne would almost certainly lose, that Guinta wil lsend Shea-Porter packing, and that, among Bass and Horn, only Bass has the name ID and experience to defeat the Democrat in November. If things don’t change between now and primary day, I’ll be supporting Ayotte, Guinta and (reluctantly) Bass.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2443988/posts?page=11#11

I’m pretty much with you.

Guinta will roll Che-Porter. And Ayotte is a lock against Hodes for the Senate seat.

I’m just unsure who to support in NH-2. The pragmatist in me says go for the sure thing in Bass - since NH-2 is fairly liberal and Charlie has the big name recognition and is the type of repub (i.e. RINO) that can win some votes in the college towns and Keene etc.

But Jenn Horn is a solid conservative so I am not giving up on her just yet. I’m surprised she doesn’t have better name recognition since she was the nominee last time around. We’ll see.

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