Posted on 02/16/2010 12:31:45 PM PST by honestabe010
Sen. Evan Bayh's stunning decision Monday to pass on a reelection campaign in Indiana is the latest blow to a Senate Democratic majority that is suddenly within striking distance for the GOP.
While the retirements of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) had a clear political logic to them — both involved vulnerable incumbents badly trailing their prospective opponents, according to publicly released polling — Bayh’s calculus was less obvious since he had a comfortable double-digit cushion and a nearly $13 million head start.
Either way, the two-term senator’s departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.
The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.
With that in mind, here’s a list of five developments that would make the Democratic hold on the Senate even more tenuous:
The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate
By most measures, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is checking all the boxes as she gears up to run for a third term. She’s made staffing additions to the campaign squad, boasts a healthy $5 million war chest, and a spokeswoman reports the senator is planning a headquarters grand opening on the same day she files for reelection in two weeks.
While Lincoln’s office dismisses speculation that she will be the next incumbent to drop, Bayh’s unexpected bombshell is a reminder that the act of gearing up for a campaign doesn’t necessarily guarantee an incumbent will run again.
(Excerpt) Read more at thewoodwardreport.com ...
Robert Byrd has successfully named everything in his state after himself so I think he can safely rest in peace now too
Byrd is still alive, isn’t he? Inside the Capital Beltway being braindead does not stop one from voting in Congress.
“Robert Byrd has successfully named everything in his state after himself so I think he can safely rest in peace now too.”
He’s going to give himself a name change from “The Great State of West Virginia” to “The Great State of Robert Byrd” for his next birthday.
For example: Sen Arlen Sphincter
No. He is not.
Senator Byrd is the walking undead. He is no longer a human, but some sort of demonically animated undead vampire thing masquerading (successfully, alas) as a human.
Anyone who has seen him in the last year or so knows what I mean.
Chances are that those two could take the big dirt nap before Nov.
1-n.d. gone
2-del castle has a 25 pt lead
3.ark- lincoln has a better chance of surviving the shooting than blance does of winning that election
4- pa spector doesn’t pull this one out.
5-reid is toast
6- bayh did us an enomous favor becomes a safe pub seat.
Best case scenario is rats -6.
7- ill meeks has a comfortable lead.
8- col bennett is in serious trouble.
more speculative
wash especially if rossi runs
cal if boxer loses rats will never recover.
wis especially if tt makes a run or the economy gets worse.
nyI and II
kudlow and pataki would send a shiver up the collective @#$%$ of all the rats.
This election will be better than 1980 better than 94.
let’s just put all the nails in the many deseved coffins of the rats.
The ‘Pubs should do everything they can to get Thompson to try for the WI seat. I’m surprised about Rossi in WA state. I didn’t think he wanted to go to DC. But the last time out the voters made it clear they didn’t want him as Gov. Maybe they see him doing better in the Senate.
Thank you - Good analysis. I would point out that developments in NY First CD and NY Second CD are the direct result of last summers town hall meetings about the attempted takeover of health care. Bishop in NY 1 was blasted at the town halls. Steve Israel in NY 2 tried to get away with “telephone town halls” so he wouldn’t have to face angry constituents. Israel tries to dance around every issue, but always come down on the side that Chuck (the schmuck) Schumer tells him to. Ditto for the non-elected Senator Gillibrand, the appointee of our non-elected governor. I’m beginning to lose count of how many NY democrats are in elective offices to which they were never elected.
Maybe Spector will switch back to the Republicans...and announce it at a Tea Party.
Maybe Spector will switch back to the Republicans...and announce it at a Tea Party.
too bad dead people can’t announce anything.
Boy, I can’t wait to never hear about him anymore...when he went off on Bachmann, I wanted to jump through the tv screen
More or less. He hasn't started smelling yet, but for all we know that's due to the preservative power of the moonshine and he's actually been dead for five years.
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