Nighty nite Ciro ...
Posted on 06/18/2010 5:57:53 AM PDT by randita
GOP Poll Shows Rodriguez In Trouble
June 17, 2010 11:26 AM
By Reid Wilson
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) faces a tough re-election bid against an Hispanic GOPer the party is excited about, according to a new survey for attorney Quico Canseco's (R) campaign.
Rodriguez leads Canseco by a narrow 48%-45% margin, according to the survey, and the Dem doesn't have a lot of backup. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Pres. Obama both have overwhelmingly negative images, and GOPers lead the generic ballot test by 5 points.
Canseco is little-known, and he doesn't have a huge amount of cash to spend on the race; Canseco only had $28K in the bank as of March 31, just after the GOP primary and runoff.
But he has the ability to put at least some money into his own race. Canseco already owes himself $967K, all but $56K of which is from his unsuccessful '08 bid, when he lost in the primary.
National GOPers wanted Canseco to win the primary, and they've listed him as an "On the Radar" Young Gun contender -- the lowest of the 3 tiers. Still, he could give GOPers a chance in the sprawling district, which takes in the San Antonio suburbs in the east and the El Paso suburbs out west. Canseco will have to make inroads with Hispanic voters, who make up 65% of the district.
Rodriguez hasn't had the easiest time keeping his seat, which he won in '06 after serving in a differently-drawn district for 3 terms prior. Rodriguez took 54% in an '06 runoff against ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and 56% against Bexar Co. Commis. Lyle Larson (R) in '08.
The poll, conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. for Canseco's campaign, tested 550 likely voters between May 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.
Update: "This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted," said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. "That's why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama."
Key House Races Ping!
Yes!
We might also look at Roy Morales running for CD 29 in the Houston area. He did quite well in the Houston Mayors race and might be a sleeper this year.
Thanks randita.
Canseco for Congress
Man, the margin between them is tight (much closer than I would expect).
I'm not ready to make a contribution until I research him, since he wasn't on my radar. I will check on him, as I hope many Freepers will, and I'll be sending a BIG donation if he passes muster.
Someone ought to get that message to Canseco.
That’s not shocking since Ciro originally represented a different district.
Ping!!!
TX-23 ping!
If you want on, or off this S. Texas/Mexico ping list, please FReepMail me.
I sure hope Solly and Solly, Jr. get beat this year. TX-27 seems to be off the radar for most pollsters.
Does he stand behind Barney or if front of him?
Nighty nite Ciro ...
Unfortunately, Republicans will not do well in heavily Hispanic congressional districts this year. Bush won in 04 with 40% of the Hispanic vote. We’ve shot ourself in the foot with a really big and growing demographic group.
In Texas, when in doubt, bet on the Dem losing.
Mean Gene Green.
It is one of two districts we can take over this year, the other being Chet Edwards.
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