Posted on 07/12/2010 6:49:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.
Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.
That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.
Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.
"Strong evidence exists that a fundamental change has occurred among African-Americans in the New Orleans area, where performance overrides ethnic voting," Kennedy said. "And since Joseph Cao is also a minority candidate who has an outstanding record of personal and political accomplishments, African-Americans identify with him and are willing to give much higher support to a non-African-American than in previous elections."
Cao is well-known throughout his district -- surprisingly so, for a freshman. Fully 54% of district residents rate him favorably, while just 9% say they see him unfavorably. Richmond is much less well-known, clocking in at 23% favorable and 12% unfavorable. Dems believe they will win over a much larger vote share as Richmond's name becomes better known.
The poll also tested Cao against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D), who last week said she wouldn't run and who trailed Cao by a 49%-30% margin. The poll did not test state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), who has qualified to run for the seat but who has much less cash on hand than Richmond and is seen as an underdog in the Dem primary.
Dems say Carter Peterson's decision not to file will give them a leg up in the long run. Running alongside Richmond and LaFonta, little-known businessman Gary Johnson (D) and ex-Congressional aide Eugene Green (D) are unlikely to take a significant percentage of the vote, meaning the winner of the Aug. 28 primary will likely get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.
Dems also caught a break when several African Americans considering an independent bid against Cao said they would not file, limiting the potential for a split Dem base. Cao got a challenger at the last minute in salesman Norman Billiot (R), though on Monday Billiot withdrew his name, giving Cao a clean shot at the GOP nomination.
Opposition strategists pointed to the very makeup of Cao's district, which gave Pres. Obama 75% of the vote in '08. No other member of Congress holds a district that favored the other party's WH nominee by such a large margin.
"Rep. Cao has done anything he needed to in order to stay in good graces with his national Republican benefactors and try to block President Obama's agenda in a district where voters strongly support it," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "The moment Cao voted against historic health insurance reform was the moment we knew our Democratic nominee will be successful in November."
The poll was conducted by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight. It surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.
I’m sick of these GOP candidates trying to fit in to the mold of Demorats. Let the welfare cheats and scoflaws of New Orleans house districts be represented by their own crooked kind. Then send them to jail every few years.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
You're wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways.
Well good for you.
Ain’t no moderates. When are you guys going to learn that.
Thanks for posting this. I saw it briefly but was planning to go back and read it thoroughly.
I am pretty shocked and sure hope it holds. Incumbency does have its perks. Being on the news every night and telling constituents what you’re doing about the oil spill doesn’t hurt.
But still, Cao has had two years to close the sale, and it looks like the “pens are coming out for the signatures”. He’s done a good job.
Anyone who really believes that 70% black district is really going to re-elect Cao should stay off the mushrooms. Cao is gone for sure. His election was a one-time fluke due to cold-cash Jefferson.
Cao was the only “Republikan” who went to Obama’s Super Bowl party..and later called it bi-partisan. Pathetic..
To see any poll showing Cao leading is a shocker to me.
Then again, I would point out that some prominent local N.O. pols have had to resign or go to jail as of late, like N.O. Councilman Oliver Thomas and State Senator Derrick Shepherd. Cao by contrast is a complete boy scout. Also, the N.O. city council is now majority white, and even elects white candidates from black majority council districts (Stacy Head is a prime example), so it’s not as if black voters will reflexively vote for the black candidate. Having said that, I’m still floored at the possibility that so many would vote for a Republican for federal office.
Blacks were Republican for generations. It wasn’t till the 60’s Civil Rights era that somehow the propaganda was that the D’s were the ones who made it all possible to eat in any restaurant, stay in any hotel,sit anywhere on a bus, or drink from any water fountain. All pure BS, but it’s been bought now for 40-50 years.
Middle class black family should by all rights be Republican. They tend to be more conservative than most whites on social issues, and increasingly on economic issues. It makes no sense for them to stay on the Dem plantation. If I were black it’d make me furious to have the likes of Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton appointed as my ‘spokesman.’
You know, this poll is quite a bit old—it was taken between May 27 and June 2. One of the reasons why this poll didn’t seem right to me is that I couldn’t think of a reason why would Cao sit on such a fantabulous result for over a month unless he knew that it was a sham.
But I just realized something that makes me wonder whether there might not have been another reason for Cao abstaining from trumpeting these results back when they were fresh. During the past 6 weeks or so there were several prominent black liberals publicly considering running for the seat as independent candidates. Now, if there was one thing that could place Cao in the driver’s seat for reelection it’s having a second black liberal take votes from the Democrat nominee, so Cao would be wise not to do anything that would discourage one or more black liberals from making an indie run.
I would posit that a poll showing Cao with 51% overall would discourage any black liberal who was thinking of running as an independent, since such a candidate would be hoping of winning with 35% or so, and if Cao was well over 40% it wouldn’t be worth the effort; in addition, it would be even more difficult for a black liberal independent to fundraise if people thought that a united liberal base was the only way of defeating Cao (as opposed to the conventional wisdom that Cao would be lucky to get 30% in a multi-candidate race or 40% in a two-person race). So Cao and his advisers decided not to release the results of the poll and see whether any black liberal candidates would make indie runs and make his path to reelection far easier.
Alas, the filing deadline came and went, and no one filed to run as an independent candidate. So, with no reason to keep the poll under wraps anymore, Cao releases the results. While I still refuse to believe that Cao could be leading a black Democrat state representative by 39% to 36%, I don’t think that this poll smells quite as bad as I originally thought.
Actually it was FDR that bought them off first, they switched instantly.
In 1936, 71% of blacks registered Democrat and they stayed Democrat, reaching up to 77% and 76%, then in 1964 Johnson and his welfare plan jumped them to 94%, since then they have been mostly in the mid to high 80%s.
I seriously doubt Cao has a "big lead" in a district this overwhelmingly RAT, but unlike many here I don't assume he's DOA because of the district's demographics either. Nobody thought he could win 2008 either, and 2010 is shaping up to be a FAR better year for the GOP. It's quite possible he could catch lighting in a bottle twice. The odds are he'll lose (that would be what you'd assume if you're a betting man), but he's only GURANTEED to lose if we make it a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm personally tired of the defeatist attitude from Republicans "writing off" RAT districts. The Dems go all out to win 60% GOP districts and then cling to them for years and have to be dragged kicking and screaming from those seats. We should fight like hell to keep every seat we have.
>> this poll sounds far too good to be true. But if there’s even a kernel of truth to it, November will be even better than we all have been hoping for. <<
Bingo. If this election is anything like 1994, we could see quite a few upsets in districts that have been RAT forever. This "poll", if it even slightly resembles the actual numbers, should give us pause. It would mean a RAT slaughter is on the way.
p> >> >>> He votes like your average Black Congressional Caucus member. Why change. I’m sorry, but I cannot distinguish this RINO’s voting record from that of any other CommieCrate. Why should I care what happens to him? He is dead to me, as far as being Republican in any meaningful sense of the concept. <<
I'm sorry you can't distinguish his record from your average moonbat Black Congressional Caucus member, but I certainly can. He's nowhere near as conservative as me but he'll way to the right of the "typical" Maxine Waters type RAT representing those types of districts. Here's some of his positions over the past year:
Final Passage of Obamacare - NO
Prohibit Federally Funded for Abortion Services -YES
Prohibit the return of the Fairness Doctrine - YES
Substitute Health Care and Insurance Law Amendments - YES
Require Timetable for Withdrawal from Afghanistan - NO
Remove Funding for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter's - NO
Prohibit Federal Assistance to ACORN - YES
Pass Energy and Environmental Law ("Cap and Trade") - NO
Allocate additional $825 billion for Obama's "economic recovery package" - NO
Do you honestly feel that Bill Jefferson would have voted the same way if he was still representing that district? Cao has a lifetime ACU rating of 55%. I would rather have someone who votes with me the majority of the time representing a district with 90% RAT politicians than have someone who votes with me 5% of the time.
>> Other than has nearly unforgivable vote on ObamaCare, I can give Cao an occasional pass for trying to survive in a district of Obamabots, much like with Scott Brown. I hope he wins re-election. <<
I agree. Normally I'd be all for purging a Republican who votes with the RATs half the time, but given the EXTREME lopsided RAT history of that district, Cao is a vast improvement. I believe the last time it had a Republican Congressman was the 1880s? And Cao did switch to the GOP on Obamacare after the "pro-life" Bart Stupak sold us out. Cao was on the right side when we needed Republicans united on the final roll call vote.
>> You're wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways. <<
I understand the anti-Cao sentiment here, because many of the same arguments used to defend Cao are being used by the GOP establishment to defend socialist RINOs who DON'T deserve it. Kirk apologists make the same claim ("he's a moderate Republican representing a very liberal district, that makes him better than any Democrat"), but in Kirk's case it's not true and the voting record of Kirk and his constituents reflects that.
In Kirk's case, you have a LIBERAL Republican representing a MODERATE district (rather than the other way around). Kirk's district is roughly 50% Republican, but Kirk agrees with the RATs on the majority of issues and switches to their side when his vote needed, because they're the one in power now and he wanted to suck up to the ruling RAT overlords in Washington to gain power and clout. That's not acceptable and Kirk is certainly not "better" than any Illinois Democrat. Indeed, many Democrats politicians in districts with comparable demographics and percentage of Obama voters are not as liberal as him (a prime example being my district). There's no excuse when a "Republican" like Mark Kirk votes in favor of partial birth abortion or cap n' trade.
The same is true of people like Arlen Specter, Mike Castle, etc., etc. Their constituency is middle of the road, not a voter base filled Barney Frank and Cynthia McKinney clones. They jumped ship to the left to gain clout in Washington, not because their constituents were demanding they vote hard-left on key legislation. Those kinds of treasonous RINOs should have been purged long ago.
Cao, on the other hand, does have the misfortune of representing the kind of district falsely attributed to guys like Kirk. Cao is an normally "safe" one-party socialist Democrat district that Obama won by an absolutely HUGE 9-to-1 margin. I wish Cao were more conservative than he is, but every time he votes with us, he is voting to the right of his constiuecy. Hopefully if Cao is re-elected and can establish long enough roots to be an institution in that district, he could risk voting with the GOP more often. As of now, any time he goes against Obama he gives the opposition ammo to bring out the legions of brain-dead Obamabots against him. I can see why Cao just lays low and says he's Obama's pal at public events.
There's an important distinction between a liberal Republican representing a centrist district VS. a centrist Republican representing a liberal district. Unfortunately, that seems to be lost on many people.
Yeah, yeah. When the marbles are down, RINOs will stab you in the back. Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe demonstrated that once again today.
Excellent post.
After Katrina, many of those folks were dispersed all over the country. They may be still on the rolls, and for several elections they were allowed to vote absentee. I think that is no longer true.
Miss Mary may be in trouble...
And...apparently Susan Collins, too!
NICE post! Thank you!
I lived there for a while. After Katrina, the demos drastically changed.
Frankly...every contested ‘Rat seat, and every open seat of any party, is up for grabs right now...with the nod going to the GOP. For me...I’m TEA Party all the way...NO RINOS...but we take what we can get, numbers wise...and hope and pray that they will be shamed into voting right.
You know what else? Obama’s push for amnesty will NOT help his party. ;o)
The Dems go all out to win 60% GOP districts and then cling to them for years and have to be dragged kicking and screaming from those seats. We should fight like hell to keep every seat we have.
There's an important distinction between a liberal Republican representing a centrist district VS. a centrist Republican representing a liberal district.
Money quotes.
I was ready to chuck him when he voted for Obamacare. Good thing he changed his mind.
I'd be glad to have him as my Rep. rather than the execrable Stalinist Luis Gutierrez. Hell I'd even take Connie Morella. ;O
If the poll is close to being accurate it could be a local fluke like his initial election. His own explanation that NOLA just likes incumbents may be true. If it's indicative of the size of the anti-rat wave then even our most optimistic predictions would be well exceeded. If would mean rats like Janice Schakowsky could be going down. (to defeat not just on Turkish spies).
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