Posted on 08/16/2010 11:16:14 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed
(snip)
Schonberger: Sans fiscal stimulus and the Feds' intervention -- quantitative easing -- do you think we would even have GDP [gross domestic product] growth?
Schiff: We don't have economic growth. GDP is going up, but that's not a sign of any economic growth. All we're measuring is what we're consuming. But we are paying for it by going into debt. As a nation, we're in worse shape because of the GDP growth. The real economy is shrinking. All we're doing is borrowing money from economies that are growing, like China, and we're spending their money. But that's going to stop.
Schonberger: You mentioned that you think we're in the early stages of a depression. When do you think we begin to see a double dip back into a recession?
Schiff: We've already seen that. GDP is decelerating now as the stimulus is wearing off, and the hangover is setting in. By next year, I believe we'll be back in recession territory, as far as the GDP numbers.
Schonberger: If we continue on the current policy path, is there a chance the U.S. is facing a Japan scenario where we're in a slow-growth, deflationary malaise?
Schiff: No. There's no chance of us getting off as easy as Japan. Our situation is considerably worse. We're going to have runaway inflation and recession simultaneously. I call what we're going to have an inflationary depression, which is the worst possible depression you can have.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at fool.com ...
Schiff: By getting out of U.S. assets entirely, by not owning any dollar-denominated debt. Don't own Treasuries or bonds. Invest in the economies that are doing it right. Invest in emerging markets -- Southeast Asia, China. Invest in natural resources economies like Australia, Norway, and Canada. I invest in commodities and precious metals. Just get out of dollars.
Schonberger: So you're still buying gold, which is currently trading around $1,200 an ounce. Where do you see gold going from these levels?
Schiff: There's no limit to how high gold prices will go. They will rise many times from here --thousands and thousands of dollars per ounce higher. People will be shocked.
It's surprising to me that gold is still as cheap as it is. I just know it's going higher, and eventually it's going to go ballistic. ...
Schonberger: Given your outlook for the U.S. economy, do you think the U.S. stock market is poised to crash?
Schiff: No. I don't think it's going to crash in nominal terms -- the way we think about it -- because the government has already created inflation. All that money creation will put a floor under nominal stock prices. But I do believe that the Dow Jones will fall down to about one ounce of gold, which is an 80% or so decline from where it is right now. In real terms, U.S. stocks are going to get killed. But in terms of dollars that we create out of thin air, no, I'm not looking for Dow 1,000 or Dow 2,000. But I am looking for the equivalent, loss of purchasing power, in terms of an ounce of gold.
And no way to stop it. The communists takeover of Federal Government will take years to dismantle and in the meantime the depression will be worst than the Great Depression.
So they recommended with a straight face to invest in china, canada?
Thank American idiots who have cable and sat TV because ALL of TV supports Obama, Islam and the Saudis including Fox Saudia News.
We are also in the early stages of a Jihad/Revolution/Civil War. So which hits the fan first?
Schiff may be right. As the dollar collapses prices will INCREASE !
The Fed will be stuck, increase rates and the housing/mortgage industry will implode, the bailed out financial institutions will collapse. Do nothing and leave rates near zero and the dollar will become worthless.
In a nutshell, THE USA IS F***ED !
Ah yes. Canada’s banks are the safest in the world and they are the #2 in energy resources plus minerals. Do a little homework next time. Canada’s economy is fine. Keep clicking that clicker.
>> So they recommended with a straight face to invest in china, canada?
Oh, not only those, but also gold and commodities. And did I mention gold?
Sometimes I think that what these clowns recommend is what they’re stuck holding (or the opposite of what they’re shorting).
Investing in commodities and consumer production in a deflationary period or depression is insane.
ping
Post Of The Day.
We're going to have runaway inflation and recession simultaneously. I call what we're going to have an inflationary depression, which is the worst possible depression you can have.
Has not the Suntrade Institute said this repeatedly? Inflation and Depression are two forms of the same thing: citizen impoverishment. Big deal how much phony money the Government prints.
We're not interested in a Nobel Prize however; Gore, Obama, Arafat, etc. Bad Company.
I believe the economy cannot get better with the Fascists in charge. The question is how to make changes in November and not have those changes blamed for what are systematic problems going back to Roosevelt. It is necessary that DumBO get no credit for whatever the Republicans can accomplish. It will be required that DumBO vetoes bills that get little or no Bolshecrat support. That is, the Republicans must propose legislation that is contrary to Bolshecratic policies.
This is the intention and the goal. Witness that Section 8 "rally' near Atlanta. The progressives need foot soldiers and this is how they plan to get them.
It needs to be repeated.
Schiff depression bump!
More and more I am being swayed by those saying high inflation will result from all of the government printing - people like Peter Schiff and Gerald Calente. I am beginning to fear that the government does indeed have an unlimited printing press, as Eric Janszen has said.
My problem is I cannot disregard people here like NVDave and Southack who say that we will not have inflation, and will have Japan’s lost decade or worse - a 30’s style deflatioanry depression. (I hope I have not mis-stated the beliefs of either NVDave or Southack). They are both backed up by people like Robert Prechter, who agree a deflationary depression is the end result.
Now, I know full well that we are heading for a deflationary period. What baffles me is if unlimited dollar printing can snap that around from deflation to hyperinflation (I don’t see anything in between, unfortunately. The volume of money it would take to stop a continuously deflating US economy would be so vast that I can’t see anything but a complete loss of confidence in the $USD resulting, causing a hyperinflation.)
I guess I have to finally come out of the closet and take a stand. Put me officially in the inflationary depression camp with Peter Schiff, and put me down for hyperinflation as well.
There. I said it. Commence the wrath of Southack - I have it coming.
That can be true. It can also be true, when somebody sees a crisis coming, they position for it. You see "clowns" promoting what they are holding. I see investors holding what they think they need at the time. Just because someone is pushing commodities or gold does not mean they are wrong.
Investing in commodities and consumer production in a deflationary period or depression is insane.
BINGO. Which makes these people credible. They are not just shouting fire in a crowded theater, they have brought nomex and fire extinguishers. I find a person who yells "inflation" more believable when he has his own skin and his client's skin in the game.
Love or hate Schiff, he is "all in" for inflation and is walking the talk. He believes it. You don't. One of you is going to get slaughtered. That is why the inflation/deflation debate is the single biggest issue any of us faces today. If you hold a all cash for a deflatinon and we inflate, you go broke. And if you have gold and commodities in a deflation, you go broke. Moste people are screwed either way, the rest of us have to hope we guess right. This is almost as bad as a coin flip, even though we all feel strongly about our reasoned positions.
I don’t want to put words in your mouth or mis-state your current positions on the inflation/deflation debate. I dropped your names so I should ping you to correct anything I might have done to mis-state your beliefs regarding deflation.
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