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Key House Races - 28 August 2010 Update - Biggest Gains Yet by the Republicans
KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 28 August 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 08/28/2010 11:10:17 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

This weeks news:

It was a BIG WEEK for our "Experts" and as usual the changes were highly favorable to the Republicans. We had a total of 55 updates this week, the largest number we've recorded for a single week. CQ Politics finally woke up up so we will lay off of them for awhile. RCP also came through with several updates. And Sabato has promised a major update on September 2nd.

See below for the summary.

We have winners in the Arizona and Florida primaries.

The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include the Arizona and Florida primaries and all funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.

So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR Polls Page.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 55 updates this week to the 93 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 46 were favorable to the Republicans
  • 9  were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.177 from last weeks -.251. That's a very big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by a huge margin. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week - lots of RED entries. For the newbies, the -.177 figure means that the average "Expert Rating" for every race on our list is rated a Toss-Up but slightly favoring the Dems. If the index gets into positive territory (where it seems to be heading) then the average rating for all 93 races would be Toss-Up with a Republican tilt.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page

We've added a new page to show the Master List in a ranked order last week and there is now a link to this page on KeyHouseRaces Home Page. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most Likely Republican Winners at the top and the Most Likely Dem Winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.

You  can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .

Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries:

August 28: Louisiana

September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin

September 18: Hawaii

TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: election2010; elections; keyhouseraces; khr
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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I'm posting the "Expert's View" of the Master List today just so everyone could see the huge number of favorable updates. It was a banner week for sure. The trend continues.

District Incumbent Party Average Average Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Likely R 2.0 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Likely R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up CA 11
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Likely D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R CO 4
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D CT 5
DE AL Open R Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 8
FL 12 Open R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Toss-Up FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Likely R FL 25
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Likely D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Toss-Up Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 14
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D IN 2
IN 8 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D Leans R 0.8 Toss-Up Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Leans R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Likely D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 10 Open D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Likely D Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Safe D Leans D MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Michele Bachmann Incumbent R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans R NC 8
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R ND AL
NE 2 Lee Terry Incumbent R Likely R 2.0 Likely R Likely R Mod R Likely R Likely R Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D NY 25
NY 29 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Jean Schmidt Incumbent R Safe R 2.8 Safe R Safe R Mod R Safe R Safe R Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 6 Jim Gerlach Incumbent R Likely R 1.8 Likely R Likely R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R PA 6
PA 7 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Toss-Up PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Safe D Leans D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D TN 4
TN 6 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 3 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Leans R Leans R WA 8
WI 7 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up WI 8
WV 1 Open D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
District Average Average Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up -0.177 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 28-Aug-10 -0.446 -0.380 0.109 -0.250 -0.391 0.293 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 08/28/2010 11:10:20 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 1776 Reborn; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ..
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:


2 posted on 08/28/2010 11:15:24 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

John Hall, (NY19) who’s as lefty as they come, came out against the mosque this week....he’s crappin in his pants and the campaign has not even moved into full swing yet...


3 posted on 08/28/2010 11:21:33 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Placemark and thank you!


4 posted on 08/28/2010 11:23:50 AM PDT by onyx (Sarah/Michele 2012)
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To: InterceptPoint

BTTT


5 posted on 08/28/2010 11:24:59 AM PDT by E.G.C.
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To: God luvs America

It won’t work. Hayworth has the campaign cash to take him out and we’ve already started to get the mailers from her.


6 posted on 08/28/2010 11:25:08 AM PDT by BCEagles
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To: InterceptPoint

Luv you guys for all this hard work!

NY20 is lookin’ good. Since early July, 5 of the 6 ‘experts’ have changed their rating of NY20.

FReepers that want to adopt a contender district, and help turn NY 20 back-to-red, please take a look at Chris Gibson.
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

Side notes
—talking to a couple Lib relatives yesterday. They got a tele/pollster re Obama, and said they would never ever vote for him again....hee

—and my Lib brother, who also voted for Obama, and usually votes dem, is searching his soul re which party really lost him big$$ to his 401k...etc

And, they are starting to realize the ‘teach someone to fish’ mantra I’ve always preached them

You can just ‘feel’ the energy on the ground here in NY20

I...can see November from my house
repeat, rinse, repeat

~Kate


7 posted on 08/28/2010 11:38:48 AM PDT by Hush44
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To: InterceptPoint

Dick Morris presaged on FOX this week that the GOP will pick up 80 Seats on November 2nd.

Check out this post re: how the Party Trend has not even set in yet, and that this years mid-terms will be a greater victory for the GOP than we now think.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2579244/posts


8 posted on 08/28/2010 11:40:41 AM PDT by no dems (To Every Democrat in the U.S. House and Senate: "Shame, shame. Shame on all your houses.")
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To: InterceptPoint

Scott Tipton Leads John Salazar in New CO-3 Poll.

The Tipton for Congress campaign today released results of a telephone survey that demonstrates Republican businessman Scott Tipton leads Democrat Congressman John Salazar 49% to 43% in the 3rd Congressional District race.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2576891/posts


9 posted on 08/28/2010 11:42:50 AM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: InterceptPoint

Frazier Leads Perlmutter 40-39 (CO-7)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2578989/posts


10 posted on 08/28/2010 11:44:18 AM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: InterceptPoint
Some suggestions:

IL-17 - for some reason this has flown under the radar nationally, but Phil Hare is a weak incumbent and a poor campaigner with very bad poll numbers and a strong challenger, Bobby Schilling.

OH-2 - think you could just take this district off?

NC-7, NC-11 - very little information about these races so far but could emerge as competitive quickly, depending on what outside groups get involved with how much $

WA-2 - an interesting one to watch - the Republican nominee (John Koster) won more votes than the incumbent Democrat (Rick Larsen) in the jungle primary

GA-2 - if black turnout is low, Sanford Bishop could be in trouble in this district

11 posted on 08/28/2010 11:57:44 AM PDT by Crichton
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To: InterceptPoint; TonyInOhio; fieldmarshaldj; chimera

OH looking great. Virtually every one of the people who came in during the 08 election is losing or in tossup mode.


12 posted on 08/28/2010 12:05:32 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: InterceptPoint
The only race I am really interested in is watching that nutjob Grayson lose in Florida. Otherwise, I am confident we will take back the Congress.
13 posted on 08/28/2010 12:08:10 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: InterceptPoint; randita; onyx; Liz; LS
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 25
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30
21-Aug-10 204 209.86 216 4.47% 30
28-Aug-10 205 210.91 217 7.03% 31

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 37% of the 92 races being tracked. 34 polls are being used out of 54 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 63%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
31-Jul-10 207 212.12 217 8.64% 33
07-Aug-10 206 211.07 216 4.66% 32
14-Aug-10 206 211.04 216 5.02% 32
21-Aug-10 207 211.6 216 6.03% 32
28-Aug-10 211 215.2 220 25.97% 36

And in the Senate...

This week saw the race in California tighten up as Carly Fiorina pulled within one percent of Barbara Boxer, Marco Rubio moved outside the margin of error against Charlie Crist in Florida, and Missouri's Roy Blunt moved outside the margin of error against Robin Carnahan. However, Illinois moved from a tie to favoring Alexi Giannoulias over Mark Kirk.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7
21-Aug-10 47 48.69 50 3.05% 7
28-Aug-10 47 48.86 50 5.88% 7

-PJ

14 posted on 08/28/2010 12:09:07 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
Oops... make that 93 races.

-PJ

15 posted on 08/28/2010 12:14:57 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Goodbye Pelosi.


16 posted on 08/28/2010 12:15:42 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: InterceptPoint

Gee, the Marxist have a lot to do if they expect to stay in power.

Bribes, blackmail, fraud..you name it, they’ll do it.


17 posted on 08/28/2010 12:24:30 PM PDT by TribalPrincess2U (demonicRATS= Obama's Mosque, taxes, painful death. Is this what you want?)
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To: InterceptPoint

Republicans will win every one of those races in Pennsylvania. Count on it!


18 posted on 08/28/2010 12:27:46 PM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (U.S. Out of My Doctor's Office!!)
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To: LS

Good deal. Keep the pressure on. We need to give Strickland the gate, and I’d love to see the voters in OH 15 kick Mary Jo Kiljoy out on her DSA butt (I know I’ll do my part).


19 posted on 08/28/2010 1:28:39 PM PDT by chimera
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To: InterceptPoint
Illinois 11 is definitely leaning (R) Halvorsen is toast.
20 posted on 08/28/2010 1:34:31 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: Hush44

Kate,
Go Gibson Go!

from,
Pete
Tedisco ‘09, eastern Dutchess


21 posted on 08/28/2010 1:42:54 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: no dems
Hope Morris is right. I remember the pundits on the eve of the 94 Republican landslide of 54 seats. The brilliant ones were saying the Repubs would pick up 4 to 6 seats max. What a good laugh I had next day.

They are clueless.

vaudine

22 posted on 08/28/2010 2:36:43 PM PDT by vaudine
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To: InterceptPoint

Every week your thread is getting better and better. And I think the experts out there are noticing YOU, too.

I’ll bet you’re really enjoying yoursef, too!


23 posted on 08/28/2010 2:45:53 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: InterceptPoint
Here in Kentucky, some of the local media have been reporting recently that Ben Chandler is in real danger of being knocked off by Andy Barr, his Republican opponent.

The 6th District went for McCain over Obama by a 55-43 margin two years ago, and while Chandler is a "Blue Dog Democrat", this race will probably be decided by less than five percent.

24 posted on 08/28/2010 2:55:46 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson (Put your trust in God; but mind to keep your powder dry. - Oliver Cromwell)
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To: no dems

Dick Morris presaged on FOX this week that the GOP will pick up 80 Seats on November 2nd.
******************************
I heard him say that. But it still seems like a bit of a stretch to me. OTOH, 50 is starting to look like a real possibility. But right now we are at about 35.


25 posted on 08/28/2010 3:30:21 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Crichton

We could take OH-02 off the list but ....... not yet. It is in the bag for sure.


26 posted on 08/28/2010 3:34:17 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Political Junkie Too

Looking good. The Experts are still trailing the pollsters - as anticipated. A few more polls and you are going to break through that 39 seat pickup threshold.


27 posted on 08/28/2010 3:38:03 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: no dems

10 days before the Election may have been when the trend starts in the past, I suspect we will see a sharper, earlier break this Election.

The Dhimmis have nothing to run on but Cash, and they do have a large amount of cash on hand, that is the one firewall they posses.


28 posted on 08/28/2010 3:40:25 PM PDT by padre35 (You shall not ignore the laws of God, the Market, the Jungle, and Reciprocity Rm10.10)
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To: Red Steel

Goodbye Pelosi.
*****************
And hello to ??? Will the Tea Party force the choice of a true conservative as Speaker?


29 posted on 08/28/2010 3:41:51 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: usconservative

Illinois 11 is definitely leaning (R) Halvorsen is toast.
*********************************************
That’s my take. This one’s a winner - Kinzinger is a great candidate.


30 posted on 08/28/2010 3:47:40 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Alas Babylon!

Every week your thread is getting better and better. And I think the experts out there are noticing YOU, too. I’ll bet you’re really enjoying yoursef, too!
*************************************
I confess -It is a labor of love. But it is a huge amount of work. And yes, the experts are noticing us. They should since we bug them enough. In fact we are a very convenient place for them to go to see how their competitors see the races. I think they do that.


31 posted on 08/28/2010 3:54:18 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

If there is only one seat in play in NC, there is no great shakes comeing to the congress.


32 posted on 08/28/2010 3:59:10 PM PDT by MSF BU (++)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping, brother.


33 posted on 08/28/2010 4:04:00 PM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: Stonewall Jackson

KY-06 is one of the most recent additions to our list (along with OR-05). It would be so nice to see this one flip to the Pubbies.


34 posted on 08/28/2010 4:05:22 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint
And hello to ??? Will the Tea Party force the choice of a true conservative as Speaker?

Well, Pelosi is on the bottom of the barrel of the 435 Congress critters. We are still going to get a considerable upgrade. It looks like we are going to get Boehner.

35 posted on 08/28/2010 4:28:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Crichton

I agree on Schilling in 17; leaning his way. It is his to lose. Likewise with Kinsinger in 11 and Hultgren in 14. They’ll win unless they do/say something stupid and commit suicide (political).

IL 8 is the one where we blew the opportunity. For some reason the Republican primary voters chose a weak and flawed candidate. So it is our own fault that we lose that one.

Although unlikely, a Pollack win in Chicago is conceivable.


36 posted on 08/28/2010 4:35:12 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: InterceptPoint
That’s my take. This one’s a winner - Kinzinger is a great candidate.

I live literally next door to 11 and know a ton of people in that district. Not a single one is voting Halvorsen, they're all fed up with the D's and are willing to do anything to stop the Obama agenda. I suspect we're going to see alot of that come November 2nd (which can't come quick enough for me!)

37 posted on 08/28/2010 4:35:59 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: spintreebob
Likewise with Kinsinger in 11 and Hultgren in 14.

I'd caution against under-estimating Foster in 14. He took that district handily after Hastert retired, and that district had been solidly (R) for a very long time.

38 posted on 08/28/2010 4:38:22 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: Red Steel
Well, Pelosi is on the bottom of the barrel of the 435 Congress critters. We are still going to get a considerable upgrade. It looks like we are going to get Boehner.

And is there anything wrong with that? A Minority Leader's job is to hold his caucus together. Boehner successfully accomplished that.

Some people object to him as an ineffective "spokesman". But that's not his job -- as a Minority Leader, nor as a Speaker.

The test will be whether he can continue to hold the caucus together and pass (and repeal) the legislation that we want -- in the face of united liberal opposition and a media assault.

It isn't about how he performs on camera, it's how he performs in the cloakroom.

39 posted on 08/28/2010 4:51:05 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignoran>ce on Parade)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Thanks. Still a long way to go.


40 posted on 08/28/2010 5:54:58 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: MSF BU
If there is only one seat in play in NC, there is no great shakes comeing to the congress.

NC is an individual story ... the incumbent Dems generally do a good job piling up conservative votes when it won't affect the outcome, the districts are gerrymandered, and the GOP bench is weak. Democrats have controlled the state for over 100 years and NC hasn't yet had the breakthrough most other Southern states have. That breakthrough is likely coming this year, but to take the NC House, Senate, AND a couple of congressional districts is a lot to handle with only so much $$ to go around.

41 posted on 08/28/2010 6:45:01 PM PDT by Crichton
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To: Crichton

McIntyre and fellow Democrats Larry Kissell and Bob Etheridge should all be on the chopping block this year; especially McIntyre. Pantano is a superb candidate and I’m surprised that he’s not on your list.


42 posted on 08/28/2010 6:57:53 PM PDT by MSF BU (++)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping!


43 posted on 08/28/2010 9:40:52 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: IMissPresidentReagan; CourtneyLeigh; Just Kimberly; Knuckrider; MBohman; republicanbob1; jcwky; ...
A Kentucky Ping.

...for those interested. :D

Here in Kentucky, some of the local media have been reporting recently
that Ben Chandler is in real danger of being knocked off by Andy Barr,
his Republican opponent.


44 posted on 08/28/2010 10:03:05 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Zer0 to the voters: "Here's my DeathCARE Plan"...now....just die (quicky), please. :^)
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To: okie01
It isn't about how he performs on camera...
it's how he performs in the cloakroom.

short / concise.


45 posted on 08/28/2010 10:17:56 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Zer0 to the voters: "Here's my DeathCARE Plan"...now....just die (quicky), please. :^)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks again! Great work.


46 posted on 08/28/2010 10:33:22 PM PDT by matthew fuller (2012: Bachman, Bolton, Brewer, Liz Cheney, Coburn, DeMint, Inhofe, Jindal, Palin and Pence.)
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To: okie01
"And is there anything wrong with that? A Minority Leader's job is to hold his caucus together. Boehner successfully accomplished that."

You've made an excellent point.

47 posted on 08/29/2010 6:15:06 AM PDT by NoGrayZone (Please Lord, give America a second chance.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the update ping. I’m trying not to get too excited...yet, but simply cannot help myself!


48 posted on 08/29/2010 6:16:07 AM PDT by NoGrayZone (Please Lord, give America a second chance.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the Ping.

I know this has got to be a labor of Love. We at Freerepublic sure thank you!!! Just think we knew you before you were famous.

3 corrections or updates:

WA3 Jamie Hererra has not been updated on spreadsheet.
NC11 RCP has moved Heath Schuler into Toss Up (Must be in response to Congressman Billybob in Heaven.)
CO-7 might move off the Tier 2 with this poll

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2010/08/colorado-7th-congressional-district-survey-82710/

I also look for Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks to move. FReep mail me with Cook,Rothenberg and Sabato’s e-mail addys I’d like to ask them about these races.


49 posted on 08/29/2010 7:45:22 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay
WA3 Jamie Hererra has not been updated on spreadsheet.

Thanks. I fixed it on the spreadsheet and updated the Master List.

NC-11. One more Toss-Up or Leans D and this one will go on the Master List.

CO-7 Could be the next one.

50 posted on 08/29/2010 8:19:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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