Posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
The Dems had a decent week last week but the GOP trend picked up steam this week as our "Experts" re-evaluated the races and made 61 ratings changes to our list of 100 House Seats in play. That's the largest update we've seen this election season. And it's more bad news for the Dems.
You may have noticed that we are now at 100 seats. You can credit CA-20 for sneaking on to our list as a result of the ratings change by Charlie Cook from Likely D to Leans D. That adds the necessary extra steam to the Toss-Up rating of this race by RCP and that was enough to qualify for the Master List.
So our list now stands at 100 races in play: 88 Dems and 12 not very vulnerable Republcans.
We've also added a couple of races to our Tier 2 list of districts that are starting to look like they are in play. This weeks additions: MS-04 and OH-06.
Just a reminder for the Twitter fans: We are now posting on a regular basis. If you are a Twitter user give us a look. It's the fastest way to see the latest polls, videos and changes to KeyHouseRaces.com data.
We are continuously updating the Pickup Projections from a number of sources. These are always posted on KHR but here is the latest list:
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.032 from last weeks -.113. Inching ever closer to positive territory. It's so nice to make predictions that actually come true.
Look at Texas 17 in the table in post 1! This morning Flores’ people were canvassing my neighborhood. They don’t have Chet’s money but they are working hard to get their message out. Did all of you notice Chet’s “scare the vets” and “I stood up to Pelosi” campaigns are ramping up? What a liar!
You can say that again!
Nothing on Pollak in IL-9?
They need to come out this time and forever.
We need to control Congress for a generation (a conservative generation).
IL-09 just isn’t on the KHR radar screen. Have there been any favorable polls?
| Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
| 16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
| 22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
| 01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
| 08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
| 19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
| 10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
| 17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.86 | 216 | 4.47% | 30 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.91 | 217 | 7.03% | 31 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 206 | 211.88 | 218 | 10.45% | 32 |
| 11-Sep-10 | 208 | 213.67 | 220 | 20.31% | 34 |
| 18-Sep-10 | 208 | 214.1 | 220 | 23.14% | 35 |
| 25-Sep-10 | 209 | 214.72 | 221 | 27.54% | 35 |
| 02-Oct-10 | 210 | 216.44 | 222 | 41.34% | 37 |
Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.
This week, the polls cover 71% of the 100 races being tracked. 72 polls are being used out of 84 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 86%. Poll coverage is down slightly from last week.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Jul-10 | 207 | 211.93 | 217 | 8.43% | 32 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.66 | 216 | 4.51% | 31 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.56 | 216 | 4.44% | 31 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 208 | 212.88 | 218 | 11.83% | 33 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 211 | 216.78 | 220 | 42.58% | 37 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 213 | 217.53 | 222 | 50.40% | 38 |
| 11-Sep-10 | 214 | 219.05 | 224 | 66.39% | 40 |
| 18-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.54 | 223 | 62.30% | 39 |
| 25-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.46 | 223 | 61.17% | 39 |
| 02-Oct-10 | 217 | 220.83 | 225 | 83.86% | 41 |
The House is safely going to turn over. Now it's just a matter of watching the win grow in the remaining weeks.
And in the Senate...
After two weeks of plateau, there is some positive movement.
Linda McMahon of Connecticut closes the gap with Richard Blumenthal as Blumenthal supporters move to McMahon, putting this race back within the margin of error. West Virginia is surging wildly away from Governor Manchin and towards Republican John Raese as he regains the lead by 2%. Republicans also gained in Colorado as Ken Buck takes 2% away from Michael Bennet, moving Colorado safely outside the margin of error. Also moving safely beyond the margin of error is Wisconsin, where Ron Johnson pulls away from Russ Feingold. And finally, Dino Rossi again swung ahead of Patty Murray to retake a slight lead in Washington state.
For the Democrats, Sharron Angle lost 1% against Harry Reid, breaking the tie in Nevada.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.69 | 50 | 3.05% | 7 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.86 | 50 | 5.88% | 7 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 48 | 49.21 | 51 | 14.19% | 8 |
| 11-Sep-10 | 49 | 50.08 | 52 | 37.67% | 9 |
| 18-Sep-10 | 48 | 48.95 | 50 | 3.67% | 7 |
| 25-Sep-10 | 47 | 48.35 | 49 | 0.30% | 7 |
| 02-Oct-10 | 48 | 49.7 | 51 | 21.47% | 8 |
This week, the Republicans put the Senate back in play, regaining one expected seat.
-PJ
Houst Republicans are generally more conservative than Senate ones.
Very nice. The trend is still our friend. Just hope it continues fo a few more weeks.
Thanks InterceptPoint!
None that I can find. Here’s all I know:
1. Simon Ribeiro is a Green candidate. Will he siphon votes from Jan?
2. Jan’s nervous, but is it a head fake?
On several occasions she’s mentioned Pollak by name. Not very savvy. Is she shilling for coins?
In this solidly Democrat and safe district they’re doing a very strong prep for GOTV. They normally wait until a week before the election, things are that easy.
But, Nick Blase the Niles strongman is gone. The towns much softer than it had been. Jan’s depended on a solid Niles vote. She’s likely got Evanston, Skokie (??), etc. If the Green pulls some off her column and Joel can show she’s soft on Israel he might get into striking distance.
Pollak signs are everywhere & I mean on front lawns of homes. Jan’s are rare. Is she holding fire or are things that soft for her?
I’d hate to miss an opportunity to knock her out. Can any of your experts contact the Pollak campaign and get their internals at least?
Joel’s a bit soft on SSM (CVs are OK) and abortion - personally against, wants to cut Fed funding and let states limit it to rape and incest. Better than Jan by far for both fiscal and social conservatives, but he’s more a fiscal than a social conservative. He’s an Orthodox Jew.
If he’s in striking distance it’d be great to put him on the map and let him get some funding in.
Knocking Jan out would be like Manna from Heaven.
If you can do anything to find out anything I’d appreciate it.
| Week | Sabato | CQP | EP.Com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-May-10 | 205.13 | 202.9 | 206.85 | 206.76 | 203.1 | 213.38 |
| 19-Jun-10 | 207.51 | 205.63 | 210.49 | 207.64 | 203.35 | 216.33 |
| 10-Jul-10 | 207.87 | 205.64 | 209.4 | 208.16 | 203.99 | 214.37 |
| 17-Jul-10 | 207.4 | 205.12 | 210.12 | 207.63 | 203.51 | 213.9 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 207.28 | 205.26 | 210.33 | 208.03 | 207.38 | 213.83 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 206.71 | 204.67 | 211.75 | 208.78 | 207.22 | 215.1 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 204.65 | 212 | 208.77 | 207.19 | 215.35 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 206.78 | 204.81 | 212.86 | 208.97 | 207.23 | 215.49 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 206.7 | 204.78 | 213.14 | 210.76 | 207.19 | 216.42 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 208.66 | 214.13 | 210.74 | 207.62 | 217.58 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 210.14 | 208.68 | 215.4 | 211.8 | 207.53 | 218.1 |
| 11-Sep-10 | 211.15 | 209.09 | 216.53 | 214.14 | 210.88 | 220.32 |
| 18-Sep-10 | 211.34 | 209.23 | 217.05 | 214.66 | 211.98 | 220.5 |
| 25-Sep-10 | 211.3 | 212.2 | 216.89 | 215.17 | 212.56 | 220.21 |
| 02-Oct-10 | 213.74 | 212.48 | 219.97 | 215.52 | 215.01 | 221.51 |
This week's moves:
-PJ
Excellent! Thanks for the updates.
“120 Seats!!!! Now that would be something”
Saw a post on one the the Dick Morris threads, that 112 is a veto proof House :)
US Rep Steve Cohen US 9th District TN makes a complete fool out of himself on FNC.
Cohen and Cavuto on TARP, ARRA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfjBPyb5qPg&feature=youtube_gdata
Congressman Steve Cohen Discusses Healthcare Reform with Neil Cavuto - April 2, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peJ6Dv696jQ&feature=related
Limbaugh, Media Outrage Over Rep. Steve Cohen TYT Interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9BFqq526uw&feature=related
MEET HIS GOP TEA PARTY BACKED OPPONENT
CHARLOTTE BERGMANN http://www.charlottebergmann.com/
Just wondering..any way you can go back to 1994 and tell us what the self proclaimed "long time experts" ( i.e. Cook, Rothenberh, EP, CQ..predicted before the GOP landslide.....I wonder how far below they were..
Chet leans R? Riiiiiight....
‘I’m now predicting a gain of 120 seats.’
The largest GOP gain in US history was 130 seats in 1894.
It means the district is leaning Republican. If you look at the top of each column you will find names of various experts who are giving their opinion on which way the district will go. Five say it’s leaning right and one says it’s a toss up. Not one says it’s leaning towards Chet. It’s good news!
Great !!!
I am within the “margin of error” !!!
I still say it 120.
Me and good ol’ Dick Morris -——— everyone here on these forums hates him, but I kinda like him.
He certainly wrote one of the best books on “what we do next” and several other good ones with LOTS of details on Dem corruption, and suggestions on how to “take back America”.
And since he has been doing this longer than nearly anyone else on FR< I think we should not be so harsh on him .........
120 !!!
Go for the Hispanic vote - as has been pointed out many (incl my friends) are hard working and religious Americans ====== just the kind Obama hates!
Go for the African American vote (no, not the big Zero, I mean black people). The ones I know are having second thoughts
...and as many have pointed out if we could get Black support of the Gay / Lez/ Commie/ Dems down to 70% they’d never win another election.
Go after that human POS Barney Frank.
Go after “Guam might tip over” and a dozen more just like him!!!
Now is our chance.
Now is our moment!!!
We all must hang together or we will surely hang separately !!!!
Now is the time to make the maximum effort of the last 100 years!!!
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