This data ALSO confirms what I've been saying for months now - the resurgence in conservative activism is NOT due to the swinging of the "mythical moderate fiscal-conservative-but-socially-liberal" voters to the GOP. If you look at the breakdown of independents, you see that well over half of them lean GOP, less than a third lean Dem, and a little more than a tenth are "true" independents. When you integrate these numbers for partisanship with the numbers for ideological breakdown, this strongly suggests that a healthy majority of unaffiliated voters are people who probably were Republicans at one point, but left because of the leftward tilt in recent years, or people who would be Republicans if the Party wasn't full of mushy RINOs.
For what it's worth, it also appears that the vast bulk of "moderates" (which generally means social liberals who are also somewhat fiscally conservative on some things) are siding with the Dems - and we're winning without them. There's no reason for the GOP to pander to the centre and try to build another "big tent," just to get us back to where we were four years ago.
Ping pong tourney, tonight at seven!
“There’s no reason for the GOP to pander to the centre and try to build another “big tent,” just to get us back to where we were four years ago.”
Hear, hear! We may be finally learning our lesson. The result may be a true Conservative revival.
If Gallup is right, and lets say we conservatively get 57 % voting Republican... Its going to be a blowout. That would be swell.
Over 50% of the public identifies itself as conservative-leaning, while only 20% calls itself liberal. The natural state of things is for Democrats to win no more than 1/5 of elections.
We are witnessing the market correction of the Dem bubble.
54% of likely voters identifying themselves as politically conservative, while moderates are in conspicuously short supply compared with recent midterms. Also, Republicans make up a larger share of the electorate in Gallup's initial 2010 likely voter pool -- greater than their 1994 shareNot to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative, because of the mobile phones that are the only phones so many younger and lefter boneheads have as literally their only phone -- no landline. Thanks Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus.
Never thought I would say it. . . . Thanks Obama. . .
I got robo polled this week where you answer the questions by pushing the one or two key on the phone.
End result of my answers: I am an angry, registered democrat Hispanic Woman voting republican this fall.
“for partisanship with the numbers for ideological breakdown, this strongly suggests that a healthy majority of unaffiliated voters are people who probably were Republicans at one point, but left because of the leftward tilt in recent years, or people who would be Republicans if the Party wasn’t full of mushy RINOs.”
More accurately, the independents we are winning back are fiscal conservatives who want smaller Government overall and want successful economic policies - that is a 60% majority of the electorate - but left the GOP over:
- social issues (dont like the RR, or conversely dont like the GOP paying only lip service to these issues)
- the war (iraq, etc)
- competence
- corruption
- RINOism (dont like the GOP not living up to its promises)
The “Reagan coalition” was a
A note of caution here: just because people self-ID as “conservative” does not mean they will vote conservative. This is a common mistaken assumption that spans numerous election cycles and frustrates many.
The old saw is that poltics is about addition not subtraction.
Conservative candidates recommend reductions in government and the instant they do they lose so-called self-IDed conservatives who suddenly decide they don’t want certain programs reduced or eliminated.
BEING a conservative is a real commitment; just telling a pollster “I’m a conservative is nothing.” Less, actually.
While we are all excited and pleased at the numbers we are seeing, be aware of the flip side of this news.
The Dems haven’t forgotten 1994. The better our chances get to more likely they will resort to extremes we’ve never seen to disrupt and corrupt this election.
I wouldn’t suggest probabilities, but I think pretty much anything is on the table for “October Surprise” gambits. And I guarantee gross polling illegalities beyond anything seen over seen this this country.
That poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it. It shows that when the Republican party goes liberal (referred to as “moderate”) the GOP is a minority party. If you have two liberal parties, conservatives - the majority - have no home. Therefore conservatives are a HUGE, wasted power base shunned by both parties.
But the truth is, Rinos do not mind the GOP being a permanent minority socialist party working with their friends across the aisle. That is why conservatives have to go in like gonzilla on a Rino hunt every time the Rinos take over the GOP. The Rinos hate us as much as the liberal Democrats hate us.
The reason: RINO's at the top of the GOP heap, by and large, are stooges for globalism and the money it brings.