Experts Say The ‘Big One’ Will Be Even Bigger

CBS) ^ | October 10, 2010 9:35 AM

[BenLurkin]

The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday.

A report in the August issue of Geology by researchers at UC Irvine and Arizona State University suggest the fault is long overdue for a major quake — running from Monterey County to the Salton Sea, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The last major rupture on the San Andreas was in 1857.

Until recently, experts believed that the section of the fault through the Carrizo Plain, located approximately 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, would remain dormant for at least another century.

Not according to the latest research.

“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study.

U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones, who was not involved in the study, said it was possible that the entire southern San Andreas fault could rupture.

Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, calculated that would produce a magnitude-8.1 quake. Jones said that figure sounds about right.

The northern section of the fault, which begins north of Parkfield and ends in San Benito County, tends to move at a constant creep. And because stress is relieved regularly, large quakes don’t occur there, The Times reported.

[mazda77]

“The Big One” in Florida is usually expected sometime close to Labor Day each year. I am now using up my collected extras so they don’t waste away and will replenish them in a timely manner starting next June.

[SideoutFred]

Be nice, there are still a few of us out here that hate liberals and would rather not go down with the nutjobs on the left that have a 5:1 ration on us.

[The Comedian]

So outlawing incandescent light bulbs didn't help?

Isn't there something that can be taxed to reduce seismic activity?

Or hey, wait a minute...does this have something to do with Barry lowering the sea levels?

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[Wuli]

The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday........the fault is long overdue for a major quake"

It (the "big one") has been reported as due "anytime" and "long overdue" for the last fifty years. I expect that reporting to not change in the next fifty years.

While the general mechanics of earthquakes are understood, the science of the geologic specifics for accurately identifying and predicting their next occurrences is presently in the kindergarten stage.

[brothers4thID]

Well, yeah, and the New Madrid COULD go any day and is “overdue” for a major rupture. I expect the same could be said for 90% of the major fault lines in the world. (Chili and Sumatra being the obvious exceptions)

[Names Ash Housewares]

The “big one” has been said to come any second now since I was a kid in the seventies.

You just live your life and quit worrying.
I figure it’s just as likely to not happen in my lifetime as well or be much less then they thought.

Now I wouldn’t live in LA or the Bay area, there are places that you definately do not want to be.

[Caipirabob]

Experts Say The ‘Big One’ Will Be Even Bigger

"October surprise"?

Maybe in 3012. They've been promising this would happen for years and it's been as evasive as "Global Warming".

[SatinDoll]

The subduction fault lying off the coasts of Oregon and Washington States moves catastrophically, on average, every 265 years. Last time a subduction earthquake occurred the coastlines sank 16 feet.

We are overdue for another quake. Predictions say it will be of about an 8 or 9 in scale. Tsunami approximately 100 ft. high. In other words, a real corker of a catastrophe.

[LurkedLongEnough]

I’ve always wondered why they call it a “fault”.

[Czar]

* Ping *

[airborne]

"I don't know about that."

Not quite sure what your response was in reference to, but to clarify my earlier post, I was commenting on the "expert's" statement that - “The next earthquake could be sooner than later,”

It's sort of like a weatherman predicting the chance of rain being 50%.

It doesn't take a college degree to make such a vague statement, and it appears that you provided at least as much information in your post than she did in her paid for study.

[Paladin2]

"I’ve always wondered why they call it a “fault”."

Something to do with W's geological edumacation.

[BenLurkin]

Please share this link with your neighbors. Ventura and Oxnard, even though far from the San Andreas, are going to expereience severe and prolonged shaking due to geological conditions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xioHswbahPc
Earthquake Scenario Shaking Simulation

[SunkenCiv]

The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday.

Of course, that headline could have run at anytime since the great SF quake. :') Thanks BenLurkin.

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[grey_whiskers]

Chili always gives me seismic outbursts.

I'm eating some right now, in fact.

Guess I'll be sleeping on the sofa tonight!

Cheers!

[Mike Darancette]

Until recently, experts believed that the section of the fault through the Carrizo Plain, located approximately 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, would remain dormant for at least another century

There has been virtually no activity on the San Andreas between the Cajon Pass and Parkfield for quite a while. Tick, Tick ... Tick.

This may be the only October Surprise the Democrats might get.

[dragnet2]

I heard the Midwest, all the way up the Mississippi, could experience a 13.4, that could ring their bells in D.C., real good.