Posted on 10/15/2010 2:16:25 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
UPDATE: The poll is revealed, so my source says to put it out there. Scott DesJarlais has a five-point lead over Lincoln Davis (D., Tenn.), but 21 points among the highest-interest voters.
The Bottom Line
Congressman Lincoln Davis’ negative attacks appear to be backfiring. Over the last two weeks, Davis’ image has taken a hit and his ballot support continues to dwindle, falling to 40% now. More importantly, Scott DesJarlais now leads on the ballot and has the clear momentum with just 18 days to go.
Key Findings
Scott DesJarlais has taken the lead over Congressman Lincoln Davis. After pulling even two weeks ago, DesJarlais has surged ahead to take a five-point lead (now: 45% DesJarlais – 40% Davis / Sept 27-28: 42% – 42%). For the third consecutive survey, Davis’ ballot support has dropped (from 45% in August to 42% in September to 40% now).
1. At the same time, voters are starting to solidify around DesJarlais. His definite vote support has steadily increased from 26% in August to 29% in September to 37% now. (Davis’ definite support is stuck at 27%).
2. Moreover, DesJarlais has a commanding 21-point lead over Davis (55% – 34%) among voters who rate their interest level as “high” (8-10 on a one-to-ten scale).
Davis is a four-term incumbent who won 59 percent in 2008 and 66 percent in 2006.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Also, Jim Cooper in the Nashville district has been moved from Solid D to Likely D in Real Clear Politics. Another upset in the making?
I would not get too excited. Lincoln Davis released a devastating TV as versus Scott last week. Apparently citing some mental instability surrounding his divorce. I saw the ad only once, but I wonder how often it is being run. If the allegations are true, and Davis spends alot of money running the ad, it may turn the tide. However, I could still see Scott winning just because TN is so conservative, and Davis was such a shill for Obamacare.
There must be some signs of real movement in this race toward the GOP candidate as the NRCC is running ads targeting Lincoln Davis. Was this seat even thought to be in play before?
Mental instability excludes you from service in the US Congress? Who knew? I never would have guessed that!
Yes, it was a remote possibility. But, again, there is a wildcard here. If these allegations are true, and Davis keeps hammering them, it might turn the race back to Davis.
Attacks like that, this late in the campaign, by the losers are generally seen as a sign of desperation.
The Tsunami is still coming.
Nothing has changed.
Some news from your neck of the woods.
I agree. Most people except the libtards see it for what it is.
Yeah, thanks, I got a heads up on this. Davis is scared enough to go WAY below the belt in attacking DesJarlais over long-ago divorce records (which always contain awful crap, regardless of its validity). I think it’s more likely to blow up in Davis’s face. Even if Davis wins dirty, this district will be broken up in ‘12, so that would be his last term.
I worked the polls for David Hall today, Cooper’s challenger. Hall had a GREAT day today in Cooper’s back yard. Trust me on this, TN-5 is DEFINITELY in play. Cooper is already running commercials; he never runs commercials. We will win this race.
This ad was shot down as it has been proven to have no merit.
Whoa, I want to set the record straight here. Getting the FACTS straight is VERY important.
I live in Lincoln Davis’s district, was at the first town hall meetings and tea party events.
Davis promised he’d vote against Obamacare if it covered illegal aliens or abortion. He did what he said, and voted no for the hellcare overhaul. He is actually MORE conservative than many conservatives here, and actually kept his word, more than I can say for some RINOs.
However, I received (on FR)a good lesson on Blue Dogs and how they don’t/do fit into the equation of Democratic rule. Davis voted wrong on most fiscal issues. I actually like the guy, he reminds me of my Dad, Grandpa, uncles and the old school democrats — “this ain’t your grandpa’s Chevrolet (or party).”
But getting the facts straight goes a long way toward winning hearts and minds.
The ads Davis ran on Scott piss me off, and without some solid proof this happened, is sickening attack politics at its best. I think everybody is sick of this.
I talked with a hardcore Democrat this week (my lawyer) and he predicts a “bloodbath,” a democrat defeat so bad it will make the record books. He also doesn’t like Davis (a DINO he called him) or McWherter. When Dems are this disallousioned, it will be good news for those who vote for our own version of much needed “change.”
But we need to follow up and take care of some of the RINOs in our party. The hardcare dem (very likeable person) and I had a good conversation, and we aren’t that far apart with our views. It’s time to clean house, and get the rats out of D.C.
Whoa, I want to set the record straight here. Getting the FACTS straight is VERY important.
I live in Lincoln Davis’s district, was at the first town hall meetings and tea party events.
Davis promised he’d vote against Obamacare if it covered illegal aliens or abortion. He did what he said, and voted no for the hellcare overhaul. He is actually MORE conservative than many conservatives here, and actually kept his word, more than I can say for some RINOs.
However, I received (on FR)a good lesson on Blue Dogs and how they don’t/do fit into the equation of Democratic rule. Davis voted wrong on most fiscal issues. I actually like the guy, he reminds me of my Dad, Grandpa, uncles and the old school democrats — “this ain’t your grandpa’s Chevrolet (or party).”
But getting the facts straight goes a long way toward winning hearts and minds.
The ads Davis ran on Scott piss me off, and without some solid proof this happened, is sickening attack politics at its best. I think everybody is sick of this.
I talked with a hardcore Democrat this week (my lawyer) and he predicts a “bloodbath,” a democrat defeat so bad it will make the record books. He also doesn’t like Davis (a DINO he called him) or McWherter. When Dems are this disallousioned, it will be good news for those who vote for our own version of much needed “change.”
But we need to follow up and take care of some of the RINOs in our party. The hardcare dem (very likeable person) and I had a good conversation, and we aren’t that far apart with our views. It’s time to clean house, and get the rats out of D.C.
We need to put TN 9th in to play also, OUST STEVE COHEN! Charlotte Bergmann http://www.charlottebergmann.com/
Hubby and I voted yesterday.
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