Skip to comments.Latest Results For 9 UNDECIDED US HOUSE RACES GOP+63
Posted on 11/07/2010 1:19:12 PM PST by MillardFillmore
CURRENT GOP 240 DEM 187 (GOP+61) 8 UNDECIDED
based on reading 8 articles (one for each race)--see links below and full details in my comment
PREDICTION GOP 243 DEM 192 GOP +64 vs last Congress
(Excerpt) Read more at seattletimes.nwsource.com ...
UNDECIDED RANKED FROM WORST TO BEST with best guess at winner below (and how it would affect House in parentheses)
1) WA-2 Larsen (D) vs Koster (R) D ahead by 3,872 (240/188)
2) VA-11 Connolly (D) vs Fimian (R) D ahead by 968 with counting complete but recanvass outstanding (240/189)
3) KY-6 Chandler (D) vs Barr (R) D ahead by 649 with counting complete but recanvass scheduled for Nov 12 (240/190)
4) CA-11 McNerney (D) vs Harmer (R) D ahead by 548 but thousands left and court case pending (240/191)
5) CA-20 Costa (D) vs Vidak (R) R ahead by 648 but his lead has been sliced by 2/3 and many more votes to be counted in a county that went 60/40 for Costa (Kern Co. I believe) (240/192)
6) IL-8 Walsh (R) vs Bean (D) R Ahead by 350 although lead has been cut since Tuesday. (241/192)
7) NY-1 Altschuler (R) vs Bishop (D) After error corrected, R has lead "just under 400" 9,000 Absentee ballots to be counted (242/192)
8) NY-25 Buerkle (R) vs Maffei (D) R has 684 vote lead. Absentee/Military uncounted (243/192)
PREDICTION 243R/192D +64 vs last Congress
Good work (((((((((applause))))))))) for your efforts.
Looks like the ‘RATS need to “find” a couple of “bags of ballots” for New York and one for Illinois.
When it comes to undecided races, NC District 4 [?] ought to be included here too — Etheridge (D) vs. Ellmers (R). Ellmers upset Etheridge by 2099, but the next morning Sampson County “found” enough “early votes” to close the margin for Etheridge to call for a recount. Ellmers holds a 1600+ vote lead — but this is typical for NC Democrats — they steal elections this way (Chicago has NOTHING on them). This race CANNOT be counted as a “sure thing” and must be regarded as “undecided.” Not sure where it falls in these numbers.
I predict +63, but +64 is very possible.
WA-2, VA-11 and KY-6 are lost unless a huge error is found.
CA-20 very unlikely that Vidak can hold on. The remaining counties are breaking 60/40 for Costa.
CA-11 Harmer has a small chance to overcome his deficit, but absentees seem to breaking for McNerney.
IL-8 Walsh has a 50/50 chance. Bean has been outperforming in Cook county absentees, but it’s not clear how many are left to be counted.
NY-1 Altschuler’s lead likely to shrink a little because the absentees have a slight Democratic tilt - GOP registration is +%5% but the absentees only +3%.
NY-25 Buerkle should win. The absentees are proportional between Dem and GOP areas.
The last 4 really depend on the relative effectiveness of the parties’ absentee programs.
Then we win, yes???
“Absentee/Military uncounted? Then we win, yes???”
You can’t assume that. Last year there was a special election in NY-20. The Republican led by 17 initially, after the absentees were counted, the Democrat won by 401. And this is a GOP district.
Thankfully, the Democrat Murphy was defeated this year.
‘Rats probably busy in basements across the country with ACORN forging ballots as we speak.
I would love to see them get to 240 just because it would be historic. As it is, there are more Republicans in the House than at any time in my lifetime! I hope to live long enough to see 56+ GOP senators since 55 has been their ceiling since the 1920a I believe. They came close in 1996, 1998, and 2004 but just can’t seem to break that barrier. 2012 is possible, but it would be tough. It could happen in 2014.
They are already at 240. They have 2 or 3 more within their grasp.
I'm pretty confident Ellmers will hold on to her win over Bob ("Who are YOU?") Etheridge. And I'm also confident that the newly elected, Republican-controlled for the first time in more than a century General Assembly (NC Senate and NC House) will make her district safer when they redraw the lines next year -- most likely by removing that "finger" jutting into minority-heavy southeast Wake County, and attaching it to a Dem district.
Don’t get too upset if we lose IL-8.
Democrats control redistricting, they will make the new district safe for Melissa Bean to win in 2012.
in 2012 there are twice as many dems that have to defend than repubs. IIRC there will be 22 dems up and 11 repubs up.
That smells good.
Where does the NC race with Etheridge(D)stand? Have you already included that seat among the 240 held by Republicans?
I don’t know where you got your count from, Millard, but Rush Limbaugh has said since Thursday that the GOP is already assured a net gain of at least +63 seats. I believe that that number does not include any of the races said to be undecided. I believe I’ve also heard the +63 with nine contests undecided on a cable TV outlet.
Much more probable in 2012 given there are 21 dim senators up for re-elction, plus the will have to run in the long shadow of 0Bozo on the 'big ticket'. The dims have 19 up in 2014.
Thanks, justicekeeper, for the ping.
Millard is right in line with the CNN Election Center Projection.....
Both Millard and CNN show...
GOP 243 DEM 192 GOP +64
Seems like the Rats are winning all of these close races. You know, the places where they are finding missing votes. I have a bad feeling the Republicans are satisfied and not making sure these races are not being stolen.
I have a hard time believing all these Dems won on a day where Republicans were sweeping in all over the country. No doubt Reid stole that election in Nevada. There is no way you have a 9 point swing on a single day when everything is going the other way. Compound that with the rigged machines where you pull for the Republican and the votes go to Reid and the Democrats. Plus don’t for the power outage.
+61 is assured (includes Ellmers and Farenthold)
We have a decent chance to win 3 additional seats where we have tenuous leads (Walsh, Buerkle, Altschuler).
Vidak and Harmer look like longshots at this stage.
You think they can gain 9 in 2012 to break that ceiling of 55?? It is possible but it would take a lot of luck and a tremendous “wave” once again. I think a gain of 4 to get to a majority is very possible but getting up to 56 is probably out of reach. At this point though just to see the Dems in the minority would be great.
If 0bama is reelected and 2014 is his second midterm then we can hope it is a bad year for Dems and dolts like Franken et al will get dumped.
Two years is so long in politics.. look at how quickly things changed from 2008 to 2010.
Means conservatives in the house can pass whatever they want even if all Dems plus a couple dozen RINOS oppose.
They won't be able to pass much that the Senate will go for, the Senate will not be able to pass anything objectionable to Republicans, and Obama will veto anything the Democrats don't like. Pretty much a stalemate.
But the House Republicans CAN have fun with an unending series of investigative hearings on the Obama administration, ACORN, vote fraud, etc, etc. It may be a fun two years.
Great work, do you have a ping list for people who would like to follow this? I would like to be added if you do.
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