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The Most Endangered Senate Seats in 2012
Pajamas Media ^ | November 9, 2010 | Adam Graham

Posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:39 AM PST by Kaslin

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To: ScottinVA
She ought to be as vulnerable as any of them. Who'd be a good shot to defeat her?

From my personal point of view, any warm, breathing, male Republican would make a fine replacement for her. Apparently, other voters here are more discriminating.

The article mentioned Thad McCotter. He would be great. I don't know whether he wants to run or not, though...

I thought Jack Hoogendyk did a wonderful job running against Levin (the senior senator from MI). IMHO, Hoogendyk did very well in the debate at the Detroit Economic Club.

But, what do I know...

41 posted on 11/09/2010 6:35:30 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Not sure a Kennedy will walk into the Dem nomination. One of our illustrious Reps will be redistricted out(maybe two). I’m certain other Dem pols sees this as their time to move up. The only way a Kennedy is put into place to run against Brown is bags of cash dropped on other Dems desks to keep them home


42 posted on 11/09/2010 6:38:30 AM PST by GQuagmire (Hey now!)
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To: ScottinVA

43 posted on 11/09/2010 6:39:15 AM PST by Sybeck1 (Conservative yes, Republican no.)
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To: ExTexasRedhead
Start our campaigns now.

If we learned anything from the last election it should be this: If we throw out an incumbent, then we will get no help from the GOP and will be effectively starting from behind in the general election as regards an organizational effort. That means we must begin preparing for the general election as if the conservative is going to win the primary. It's a big risk, but if things don't pan out there is a puddle of money and energy ready to use elsewhere.

Hence (and as you imply), it is important to identify our preferred alternatives very early by which to help begin that preliminary organizational effort.

44 posted on 11/09/2010 6:41:31 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Grovelnator Schwarzenkaiser, fashionable fascism one charade at a time.)
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To: NeoCaveman
Dick Posthumus would be a good choice to boot Slab-O-cow.
45 posted on 11/09/2010 6:46:22 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Kaslin

PS: I promise not to post the Scott Brown Cosmo pinup pic. I’ll just leave it as my screensaver...


46 posted on 11/09/2010 6:47:32 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: MaggieCarta
Actually, anyone replacing "Dangerous Deb" (I'm looking for the picture, now) would suit me just fine.


47 posted on 11/09/2010 6:49:59 AM PST by absolootezer0 (2x divorced, tattooed, pierced, harley hatin, meghan mccain luvin', smoker and pit bull owner..what?)
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To: Beagle8U
Dick Posthumus would be a good choice to boot Slab-O-cow.

Ok.

Oh, I would just love, love, love it if she were gone in 2012.

48 posted on 11/09/2010 6:50:55 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: absolootezer0

Thanks!


49 posted on 11/09/2010 6:53:57 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: Kaslin
Add John Tester, MT to the list.

He squeaked our a win by accusing his opponent - Conrad Burns - of collusion with Abramahof (sp).

There are ads on the radio against Tester now.

50 posted on 11/09/2010 6:54:05 AM PST by Leo Farnsworth (I'm not really Leo Farnsworth.)
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To: ScottinVA
She ought to be as vulnerable as any of them. Who'd be a good shot to defeat her?

butler was the smart choice in '06. black, reasonably conservative, republican from detroit. too bad bouchard beat him in the primaries. btw, bouchard needs to go away. he's decent, but keeps sticking his nose into races and drawing support from someone more likely to win.
51 posted on 11/09/2010 6:56:02 AM PST by absolootezer0 (2x divorced, tattooed, pierced, harley hatin, meghan mccain luvin', smoker and pit bull owner..what?)
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To: Clintonfatigued; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; GOPsterinMA; Clemenza; Coop; randita; ...

“One should remember, two years ago, people thought that DemocRATS would make gains this year.”


True, but the GOP Senators up in 2010 were nowhere near as low-hanging fruit as the Dems up in 2012.

This article understates the precarious situation of Democrat Senators up in 2012. Tester, Webb and Ben Nelson will not survive. Conrad, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown are unlikely to survive (and I think that Conrad will retire rather than face the state AG). Stabenow, Bill Nelson and Herb Kohl are as likely to lose as win (and I think that Kohl will retire). Menendez, Cantwell, Manchin and Casey are vulnerable. Klobuchar, Bingaman, Gillibrand, Akaka, Whitehouse and Carper are potentially vulnerable. Lieberman and Sanders potentially face three-way contests that may allow the Republican to win (maybe Foley and Dubie can’t get 50%, but they can get 38% in a three-person race). So I count only two safe Democrat Senate seats among the 23 that are up in 2012: Dianne Feinstein’s seat in CA and Ben Cardin’s seat in MD.

On the GOP side, Scott Brown will probably not survive, John Ensign would probably lose if he ran for reelection (but the GOP would have better than even odds of winning the seat should he retire), and Snowe’s seat could go Democrat whether or not Snowe loses the primary. But that’s it: the other 7 GOP-held seats are safely Republican.

So the GOP has an excellent chance of picking up 6-12 net seats in 2012. And 2014 is just as promising for the GOP as 2012, with Democrat seats held by Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, Franken, the two Udalls, Rockefeller (who may retire), Harkin (ditto), Tim Johnson (ditto), Baucus (ditto), Coons, Pryor, Lautenberg (who will likely retire), Levin (ditto), Shaheen, Merkley and Mark Warner all being either gone, vulnerable or potentially vulnerable, while the only vulnerable or potentially vulnerable GOP seat is Collins’s in ME (the other GOP-held seats are located in AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX and WY, which won’t be even thinking of voting Democrat again for awhile).

And thanks to GOP victories in state races las Tuesday, giving the party control of redistricting in more multi-seat states than ever before, the House will likely stay Republican until at least 2022.

So if we elect a GOP president in 2012, he should have a GOP House for his entire term and a filibuster-proof Senate during at least 2015 and 2016 (although it would be a challenge to keep a 60+ seat Senate after the 2016 elections).


52 posted on 11/09/2010 6:57:37 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Carry_Okie

The momentum and determination to save our country that gave us the huge win last week must be kept with no let up. We are at war for our survival as a free country. We must stay focused, organize even further, identify who must be defeated and go forward with our goals as priority.

Voter fraud has got to be a priority. Thugs and goons must be exposed and neutered. Our Army of patriots must have a strategy and the resources and personnel to go forward to take back our country. We must ensure our children and grandchildren’s futures.


53 posted on 11/09/2010 6:58:55 AM PST by ExTexasRedhead
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To: absolootezer0

I agree on both counts. Keith Butler was a far better general-election candidate than Bouchard, and Bouchard’s entry into the 2010 gubernatorial primary tipped the nomination from Hoekstra to the less conservative Snyder.


54 posted on 11/09/2010 7:00:21 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: All

Lugar must go.


55 posted on 11/09/2010 7:02:57 AM PST by Kakaze (Exterminate Islamofacism and apologize for nothing....except not doing it sooner!)
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To: Artemis Webb

I think that it is fairly safe to say that Sarah Steelman would have far better odds of beating McCaskill than would David Limbaugh, and that her voting record would be imperceptably less conservative than Limbaugh.


56 posted on 11/09/2010 7:03:22 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: ExTexasRedhead
Voter fraud has got to be a priority. Thugs and goons must be exposed and neutered.

Amen and amen. In particular, both Alaska and Nevada need our attention now.

57 posted on 11/09/2010 7:04:11 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Grovelnator Schwarzenkaiser, fashionable fascism one charade at a time.)
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To: ScottinVA

Got that right, Scott-o.
We need to pound the poop out of him on his oh-so quiet vote for Obummercare. That and his penchant for hanging his aides out to dry for carrying his guns.
If it is an Allen challenge again, are we up for it? Can’t have any whimping out if he gets nailed with another “makaka” moment.


58 posted on 11/09/2010 7:05:23 AM PST by matginzac
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To: AuH2ORepublican

pulled votes from hoekstra and cox both.. repeat of the joe schwartz primary. too many conservatives running, combined with a large crossover led to the worst rino taking the bid.
MI needs to learn that fielding too many candidates is going to screw us every time.


59 posted on 11/09/2010 7:05:24 AM PST by absolootezer0 (2x divorced, tattooed, pierced, harley hatin, meghan mccain luvin', smoker and pit bull owner..what?)
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To: MaggieCarta

I like McCotter too, but was disappointed when he supported the GM bailout. While I understand that is a large part of his constituency (probably 99%), it still angers me.

I’ve also heard names mentioned to run against the cow stabenow, such as retired Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and former MI Governor John Engler....should be interesting. I want to see her GONE, and email her almost every day to repeal “healthcare” reform, and plan on the end of her political career.


60 posted on 11/09/2010 7:07:35 AM PST by kevslisababy
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