Posted on 01/22/2011 3:19:41 PM PST by Brices Crossroads
As I write this, the news has just reported that a Tea Party Conservative, Jack Kimball, who has previously pledged to support a strong conservative for President has won the Chairmanship upsetting the choice of the GOP Establishment and outgoing Chairman John Sununu,Julia Bergeron by a vote of 222-199. By all accounts, Kimball is a tough, no nonsense conservative who worries many in the Establishment, including Sununu, that he is not "inclusive" enough. That this is catastrophic news for Mitt Romney is an understatement. Kimball has pledged neutrality in the 2012 GOP Presidential primary, but is is a fair bet that had the Establishment choice prevailed, she would be busily reading the same playbook that Delaware GOP Chairman Tom Ross used to torpedo Christine O'Donnell. Having a Tea Party Chairman in New Hampshire was not part of Mitt Romney's plan in what has to be his firewall state.
The other piece of good news for Palin is the straw poll. As it is wont to do, the media and Democrat agitprop outlets like Politico will spin the straw poll as disastrous for Palin and good news for Romney. Don't believe it. In a straw poll of the state central committee, in a state that he calls home, the results of the top eight contenders were as follows:
Romney 35 percent; Paul 11; Pawlenty 8; Palin 7; Bachmann 5; DeMint 5; Cain 4; Huckabee 3
Pawlenty and Paul had signs up and brochures available as did several of the candidates. All of the top seven--except Palin-- and some who finished lower (like Rick Santorum who got three percent) had paid multiple visits to the state or had run there in the past. Palin has not visited the state since 2008 and her last foray into New Hampshire politics was her critical endorsement of now-U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte which helped Ayotte eke out a 1% victory in the GOP primary last summer, earning Palin a major chit. So, without so much as blowing New Hampshire a kiss since 2008, while the others have been working the state for months to years, Palin did better than nearly all of them (except of course Romney the resident).
What are we to take away from this. First, Mitt's firewall has just sprung a major leak. The Establishment candidate for GOP Chairman has gone down in flames to a Tea Party activist who is staunchly conservative a la William Loeb. the machinery of the New Hampshire GOP will not be at his disposal for this primary. Moreover, the straw poll, which is usually meaningless, is more telling for him this time. It is a straw poll of the New Hampshire GOP state Central committee, which should be top heavy with Establishment Republicans. Nonetheless, Romney can manage barely a third of the vote. Of the next seven finishers, six(Palin, Demint, Bachmann, Cain, Huckabee and Paul) are all Tea Party or quasi Tea party candidates and their combined vote from the Establishment Central Committee is 31% to Mitt's 35%.
Fast forward to Iowa in early February 2012. Only one of these Tea Party Candidates is going to emerge as viable after Iowa. That candidate is going to come out of Iowa with a wind at her back and a boatload of momentum and free publicity. The Tea Party, which is a majority even in the Establishment GOP, will unite behind the only viable Tea Party candidate. The grass roots are even more favorably disposed to her. (A Magellan Strategies automated poll taken earlier this month for the website NH Journal showed Palin in second place with 16 percent in New Hampshire, behind the very familiar Mitt Romney’s 39 percent. Nearly three-fifths of Republicans — 59 percent — had a favorable view of Palin, compared with 31 percent who had an unfavorable view. Half of independents, who can vote in New Hampshire GOP primaries, also viewed her favorably.)
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47986.html#ixzz1Bo9wUcuV
In other words, what you just saw in New Hampshire was a very large crack forming in Romney's firewall. If, as expected, Palin wins Iowa, she will sail into friendlier than anticipated territory in New Hampshire, where she only needs a silver medal to set up the coup de grace the following week in South Carolina. If Mitt's fire wall continues to leak, and he actually loses New Hampshire to her (as he unexpectedly lost it to McCain in 2008) that would end the nomination contest earlier than it has ended in decades. That fizz you hear is the sound of the alka seltzer hitting the water at Mitt Central.
Ping!
Please ping our other friend. I am really bad with screen names.
Interesting analysis. Thanks!
Request ping!
Open primary or semi-open primary...whatever you care to call it.
It’s a closed primary. (Don’t know if that will change) According to the Magellan Poll half of the Independents have a favorable view of her though. It is an anti-tax libertarian state. I think she can get a nice slice of the indies, so the open primary doesn’t concern me.
Ayotte and Lamongtagne, both prolife conservatives finished first and second in the Senate Primary, so the GOP electorate isn’t as liberal as the media suggests.
Mitt=Chameleon. And people know it. It is why he is imploding.
Thank you! Woo-Hoo!
No Sinunu.
I was going to something similar, earlier. As a former governor of Massachusetts and an inhabitant of Vermont, who has been campaigning non-stop, Romney practically owns the state of New Hampshire. He is the Great RINO among the contenders, and naturally the more conservative candidates split the conservative vote. I’m sure that the Paulites have also been working hard, and they’ve gotten him into second place.
But this is about as high as either of them are going to go. 35% is not enough to win the state. And Paul will fade because he appeals only to fanatical Paulites.
The same thing happened last time, in 2008. Romney was top of the heap, at around 20%, but he proved unable to go any higher. Is he likely to do better now, when more people have seen through him? I seriously doubt it. What’s he going to run on? His success in bringing the Olympics to Salt Lake City? That’s getting pretty old. His stint as goernor of Massachusetts? Gay marriage and Romneycare were his two chief accomplishments.
No, I think he has peaked already.
Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits voters that have not declared their party affiliation to vote in a party's primary. A voter does have to officially join one party or the other before voting; however the voter can change his or her affiliation back to "Undeclared" immediately after voting, and hence he or she only has to belong to a party for the few minutes it takes to fill out and cast a ballot. Voters who are already a member of one party or the other cannot change their affiliation at the polling place: that can only be done before the checklist is closed several weeks prior to the election. New voters can, however, register at the polling place.[1] All voting is done with paper ballots; however, most of the paper ballots are counted by machine.
You can certainly see how the opportunities for 'shenanigans' abound with this system...explains all those cars with Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts plates at the polling places in primary day...
Aargh. I’m getting ready to go out, but read the post.
I was going to SAY something similar, earlier. As a former governor of Massachusetts and an inhabitant of NEW HAMPSHIRE.
I don’t even know why we even give such weight to a minor state like New Hampshire to begin with!
Yes. Hillary bussed in a ton of people from Massachusetts to vote for her the last time. The system is easy to game. Deliberately so, apparently. The RINOs like it that way, I think.
Property taxes are among the highest in the nation...they also kill you on tolls and 'town taxes' when you register your car. They get you...one way or another.
Thanks for the analysis Brices. Very informative.
As I said the last couple of times around, the RNC and the DC pros have decided they want it this way.
In fairness, New Hampshire used to be a decent, conservative state. But it has morphed into something very different. And the RNC seems determined to ensure that the primary system remains front loaded with crossover states and liberal states.
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