Graves Rises to Top of Potential GOP Challengers to McCaskill, Poll Shows

Roll Call ^ | 1/27/11 | Tricia Miller

[Optimist]

A new poll from SurveyUSA predicts a statistical tie in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Republican Rep. Sam Graves and Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill for her seat in Missouri.

The poll showed McCaskill with 48 percent to Graves’ 44 percent if the 2012 general election were held now, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Missouri-based Republican consultants Axiom Strategies commissioned the poll, which surveyed 700 adults in the state from Jan. 21 to Monday.

The firm did not release polling numbers for contests pitting other Republicans against McCaskill or for GOP primary challenges to Graves. However, Axiom Strategies principal Jeff Roe told Roll Call that Graves tested best against McCaskill because he cut into her Kansas City base.

If Graves does decide to run for the Senate, he may have a fight for the Republican nomination. Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is already in the race, and other Republicans have begun considering candidacies now that former Sen. Jim Talent has decided not to run.

That list includes Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, former Missouri GOP Chairwoman Ann Wagner and former Congressional candidate Ed Martin.

Roe, an experienced Missouri operative who ran Steelman’s gubernatorial campaign in 2008, worked as Graves’ chief of staff and said he would work for the Congressman again if he decides to run for the Senate.

Roe said the potential Republican candidates are having conversations among themselves about who should run.

“Everybody’s trying to determine who is the best person to take on Claire, and outside of that messaging I think it’s important to stay on target of who’s the opponent,” he said.

Missouri will lose one House seat because of reapportionment before the 2012 elections, so it makes sense that House Republicans from Missouri would take a look at the Senate race. However, the offices of Republican Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer and Todd Akin told Roll Call that the Congressmen are not interested in running for the Senate.

Roll Call Politics rates the Missouri Senate race a Tossup.

[Optimist]

Graves is relatively unknown statewide other than in the KC media market, so for him to be nearly tied with her before any camapaigning has begun is a very good sign. Also, this is McCaskill's geographic base and he eats into her support there. He is a "regular-guy" who still comes home to farm and is just as comfortable walking into Tractor Supply Company in dirty coveralls as he is in a room of "big-bucks" donors. His ability to connect with Missouri's rural base once he starts campaigning will eat into Claire's "secret weapon" which was appealing to work rural MO and eat into Talent's base in 06.

[Just another Joe]

Missouri ping

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[Just another Joe]

Missouri ping

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FReepmail me to be on, or off, this list.

[Optimist]

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[Optimist]

thanks

[Just another Joe]

Hey now, I only posted the Missouri ping once.

[magritte]

Claire only beat Talent by 55000 votes in 2006....if this Graves can take away some KC votes, he’ll be in for 2012...magritte

[KansasGirl]

I CANNOT believe that 48% say they will vote for McCaskill. How can that be when she voted for the healthcare takeover and 75% of Missourians cast a vote against the individual mandate?

[buschbaby]

Sam is a good guy. I've worked with his campaign the last two elections. He is very open and easy to talk to. I can call or email any time and know I'm listened to. His voting record is solid conservative, has a wonderful family and as mentioned above is a farmer. I have a friend who interned in DC for Sam, he has nothing but good to say. And best of all, he can beat the McCaskill witch.

I hope he runs.

[Ben Hecks]

Thanks for the ping, Joe. From the comments, I think Graves would do well in SW MO. I hope the potential GOP candidates determine the best one to challenge McCaskill and avoid a nasty primary battle - that’s how we ended up with a Democrat governor in 2008.

[cartervt2k]

Don’t worry about it. It’s partially name recognition right now, but also, your average voter doesn’t follow politics that closely and doesn’t necessary associate McCaskill with Obamacare. I’m sure she’d like it to stay that way. If the GOP has any wits about them, they will carpet bomb the airwaves with ads about her vote as the deciding one. This seat should be a pickup.

[Harley]

Go Graves. Send Aunt Bea back to Mayberry!

[Eric in the Ozarks]

ACORN cheating brought Claire mcCackle into office. Missouri Republicans need to turn out as poll watchers in force in 2012.

[K-Stater]

McCaskill is beatable, but it won’t be easy.

[Artemis Webb]

I’m encouraged that others seem to think well of Graves but I’ll support Sarah Steelman (and believe she will win the nomination) through to the primaries.

[OriginalChristian]

Thanks Joe!
OC

[AuH2ORepublican]

Graves would make a great candidate to take on Senator McCaskill, but I don’t know if he’ll run. Another good candidate would be Ed Martin, who nearly upset Congressman Russ Carnahan in a Democrat-leaning South St. Louis-based CD (which had held President Bush to only 43% in 2004), who just announced his candidacy for the Senate: http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/258454/ed-martin-missouri-republican-announces-senate-bid
I know some Missourians are wary of politicians from St. Louis, but from what I recall from Martin’s congressional run he is a solid conservative and family man with ample experience.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’m leaning to Ed Martin myself.

[Impy]

I’m fine with either.

Hmm, If Martin could run as strong in St. Louis area as he did in his near-win for the House seat he’d be a shoe-in over McCaskil.