Skip to comments.Marist Poll: Say, Obama might have a big problem getting re-elected
Posted on 04/20/2011 11:48:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Marist released more data from its poll this week, the same survey that found a significant slide in Barack Obama’s approval ratings — the survey with a +8 advantage for Democrats in the sample. In fact, Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, while Republicans only accounted for 27%. And yet, according to Marist, Obama only has 37% of their respondents committed to a second term for the President (via Newsalert):
President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.
Despite the presidents transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.
Even among Democrats, Obama isn’t a slam-dunk. He gets 70% of that 35% to commit to his re-election bid, but 12% “definitely” plan to vote against him. Obama-cons are in short supply as well, as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent. Nearly a majority of independents have made up their mind to oppose Obama, 47%, with only 32% planning on casting a vote for him and 21% undecided.
On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better. He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him. Moderates split 44/34 in his favor, a weak result, but not nearly as weak as the income demographics. Obama loses both the under-$50K and over-$50K demos by almost identical splits, 37/45 and 39/45 respectively. Among age demos, Obama only leads among the youngest bloc (18-30YOs), and that just barely a majority, 51/29. Perhaps most alarmingly, he’s losing among both men and wome, 37/43 and 38/45 respectively.
Do Republicans benefit from Obama’s woes? Mitt Romney gets into a statistical dead heat with Obama at 45/46, but so far he’s the only one who does. Mike Huckabee comes close at 43/48, and both improved significantly since January. Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56. Donald Trump loses by a similar margin, 38/54. Bear in mind, though, that the eight-point sample skew towards Democrats plays a big role in the head-to-head numbers, and the movement in this series is what actually matters. Romney closed twelve points in the gap, and Huckabee closed ten points, since January.
The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing. Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.
Tho it infuses me with nausea....there’s always a first time.
Tho it infuses me with nausea....there’s always a first time.
There must be some Dems that are saying, “How do we get rid of this guy?”
How about getting Trump to masquerade as a Republican and have at him!
we are giving 25 Million to libian rebels....anyone know what for???????? anyone know anything about the so called rebels and why they are so important to the USA?????
I like Dilbert San Diego’s Post. It’s a much better way of looking at things (state by state) than looking at national numbers.
I like this site to play with scenarios
I start with 2008 GOP=173
+6 EV for Census (as per Dilbert)
+1 EV for nebraska’s CD that was calculated separately
+15 EV for N. carolina
+11 EV for indiana
= 206 EV
+ 29 for FL and +18 for Ohio (fingers crossed)
= 253 EV. So need 17 more.
I hope Virginia will come back to GOP (based on 2009-10) but many people in northern virginia are personally benefiting from Obama’s looting of the rest of the country
so lets add +13 for Virgina and then we’re at 266EV
So in addition to the states Dilbert SD mentions we need one more state from the following target list
(New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin).
I think New Hampshire may be most likely especially if we end up with RINomney.
I think Colorado, new mexico and nevada will be tough (GOP lost key races in nevada and colorado in 2020 but did do well in New Mexico).
Wisconsin will be tough too, Prosser recently barely won.
So getting a candidate who can win Virgina and one of new hampshire/iowa/wisconsin is what we need.
Dilbert San Diego’s post
Obama beat McCain by 365 to 173 in the electoral vote.
Obama has virtually no chance of carrying any of the McCain states, so the Republican nominee starts with a base of the 173. Add about 6 due to gains of electoral votes in these states due to reapportionment, and were up to 179 as a base for the Republican.
Add to the Republican column North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, which Obama carried but likely wont this time. Add back Ohio, which Obama is in trouble in. Add all these, and the Republican is in striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed. Florida could well go Republican in 2012 also. If all of these happen, Obama cant win re-election, just due to these states alone.
I dont underestimate Obama and the Dems. and the MSM, but, hes clearly vulnerable in 2012.
I don’t think so.
Maine could go GOP, and so could Wisconsin and Minnesota if Pawlenty is the candidate. That would add another 24.
The deeper polling number look even better. Soetoro is already trailing Mitt and Huck in Florida. If he doesn’t carry Florida, he basically has zero margin for error.
No person who bombed Libya has ever been reelected president.
Republicans need a viable leader as the nominee. Romney or Huckabee won't do it.
Perhaps Democrat voters will not abandon Obama, but I think the odds are increasing that Democrat elites may be searching for a way to throw him under the bus.
It is increasingly clear to them that this guy is a dangerous incompetent who risks taking what remains of their party completely over the cliff in the next election cycle. If they can figure a way to do it while still hanging on to the black vote look for an attempt at a palace coup here.
He’s only weak among the living. Surveys of ACORN and SEIU personnel suggest that Obama’s strength among dead likely voters has grown, possibly enough to offset losses among the living. I’ll be monitoring the polls on election day, and I hope thousands of other FR patriots will be doing the same. Keep the dead in the cemeteries, where they belong, especially on election day.