Posted on 5/16/2011, 11:20:07 AM by SunkenCiv
...there are less than a dozen that each party has won at least twice since 1992: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia. Out of these ten, not many folks would consider Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee or West Virginia to be swing states in 2012.
That leaves Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio, all states generally considered as in play for 2012... since 1992, Nevada is the most "one-sided" with Democrats winning 51.5% of the 3.1 million or so two-party votes cast since 92. Nevada voted for Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush and Obama.
In Ohio, America's other electoral college prize, things are predictably tight with Democrats winning 50.7% of the roughly 24.5 million votes cast since 92. Ohio also went for Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush and Obama...
This brings us to Colorado (Clinton, Dole, Bush, Bush and Obama) and Florida (Bush, Clinton, Bush/Tie, Bush, Obama), the former which is universally considered a battleground state, while the latter is often debated...
Since 1992 in Florida, some 30.7 million two-party votes have been cast for President, with the Democratic candidate winning 15,395,501 votes and the Republican candidate winning 15,338,047 votes.
The margin over five cycles: 57,454 (closer than the 06 Governor's race). In percentage terms, that rounds to a mere 0.19% edge for the Democrats--well inside the margin of a recount. Obviously if you add in the Perot and Nader votes, it is even closer.
But Colorado was even closer, where during the past five Presidentials, Colorado voters have given the Democratic candidates a narrow 16,090 vote margin over the Republican candidates out of the 8.6 million votes cast, for a margin of 0.18%.
(Excerpt) Read more at steveschale.squarespace.com ...
We will see how things shake out in 2012 having voter id in a few more states.
Excellent point about Voter I.D. Hope it has the desired result.
LLS
Florida leans Red this time for the following reasons:
(1) Obama won with pretty much the same margins Kerry/Gore did in the heavily Democratic areas of South Florida, Gadsden, Leon, Alachua.
(2) Where the margins of victory occurred was Obama’s overperformance in places along the I-4 Corridor, Southwest FL and Duval County. McCain seriously underperformed here and lost a considerable share of not only independents, but conservative protestors as well.
(3) That won’t happen this time for Obama. He’ll get the same people Kerry got, but the secret is out among independents about his true policies making the battleground areas of the state much more difficult.
(4) The GOP 2012 Convention is in Tampa
(5) Florida has a mix of the conservative spectrum. It has it’s share of social conservatives, economic conservatives, and RINOs. The nominee has to be able to able to pull all 3 groups.
(6) The 2010 Senate race shows just how deep in trouble the Democrats may be. Their nominee got just 20%, while the Conservative and RINO combined for over 80%, with the Conservative winning an almost outright majority. However, if you assume Crist’s votes came from Democrats, then it’s still 50/50.
(7) Florida is essentially must win for the GOP and just about the everything with the kitchen sink needs to be thrown at it. If the GOP loses FL, technically, they could still win the election but it would require virtually sweeping all the following battlegrounds (NV, CO, NM, IA, WI, OH, and NH). If they were to lose both OH and FL, but somehow win MI and the battlegrounds listed, they could also still win, but that combination is remote.
(8) This is why some people would like to see Marco Rubio in the race. FL comes off the table, and all of a sudden the Democrats are in major trouble in the SW states.
Ping
I meant in 2008.
Since the GOP is running on SS and Medicare cuts for retired seniors they should have a landslide victory here in Fla. in 2012. Drilling off our coast is a big winner here too...especially after the Deep Water Horizon disaster in La.
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FL is pretty much a lock for the GOP in 2012...assuming we nominate a competitive candidate. The economy here stinks. We just completed a literally statewide sweep. We will have Rubio campaigning with the GOP candidate, which helps with both conservatives and hispanics. I would guess it fades from the list of swing states by mid to late October. The focus will be on the midwestern states, PA, NV and CO.
I agree.
LLS
Definitely.
Wow, thanks, good stuff! Rubio on the ticket would rip the lungs out of Zero among Hispanic voters in 2012, and that could flip at least three of the four largest states, putting two of them out of reach, and putting Cali in play.
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