Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
RE: Who are they polling?
__________________________________________________________________________
According to Rasmussen, they polled registered Republicans who are likely voters in this survey.
This is taken from their website:
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
RE: Who are they polling?
__________________________________________________________________________
According to Rasmussen, they polled registered Republicans who are likely voters in this survey.
This is taken from their website:
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
RE: Who are they polling?
__________________________________________________________________________
According to Rasmussen, they polled registered Republicans who are likely voters in this survey.
This is taken from their website:
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
You’d be surprised at how many people think Palin just dropped out of the sky and into the VP nominee slot. People need to know that she has served in elected office for more than 17 years, with a record that is second to none. We know it, the emails showed it, so now this new attack is to counter balance anything good that the media had to report about the emails.
The Undefeated will turn a lot of heads and change a lot of minds.
Like Mitt, Gingrich, or Plalenty is the answer.
But we are all still thriving and knocking down high 6 figure salaries, ensuring that America has energy to burn. And we would love it to be abundant and cheap, but those pesky and interfering politicians like Palin keep getting in the way.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2014601450_alaska27.html
Oh, by the way, have fun stalking someone else.
I also don't remember seeing polls about who voters definitely WOULDN'T vote for 18 months before the election.
The media polls are just as pathetic as the media email freaks.
Go Sarah.
We just need the green light from Palin and we hit the ground. I believe her popularity among Independents is also growing steadily. Lord, I hope she gets in!
http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM41_reagan_story.pdf
“Remember the 1980 Campaign
During the summer of 1979, Ronald Reagan’s campaign reported that it was broke. The candidate had to explain his weak fundraising and big spending, as well as overcome doubts about his age and ability. The campaign faced the decision of closing its doors or accepting restrictive federal matching funds. Reagan lost the Iowa caucus. Not only that, the campaign also experienced a dramatic staff shake-up in the middle of the primary season. But by the spring of 1980, closing in on the nomination, the Washington Post wrote, “As Ronald Reagan sees it, the seeds of his victory in the Republican presidential contest were sown in the dark hours of defeat.”
As the second quarter of 1979 came to a close, Ronald Reagan did not lead the Republican candidates in fundraising. He didn’t even come in second. As a matter of fact, Reagan trailed Rep. Philip M. Crane of Illinois, former Texas Gov. John Connally, and former CIA Director George Bush. Reagan not only lagged in fundraising, he outspent the other candidates, burning through $1.3 million of the $1.4 million the campaign had raised. Things only got worse—by September, the campaign was $500,000 in debt. By January, the campaign ultimately decided to take federal matching funds and the strict spending limits that accompanied them.
In addition to financial distress, the campaign also endured internal staff disputes. In December, 1979, campaign director John Sears moved to oust a trio of close senior Reagan advisers: Lyn Nofziger, Mike Deaver, and Marty Anderson. Ronald Reagan then lost the Iowa caucuses to George Bush on January 21. Then, on the day of the New Hampshire primary, February 26, Reagan took the dramatic step of firing top leadership and bringing in Bill Casey. Many other top staffers also left, either being let go or resigning. Reagan ended up winning New Hampshire by a ratio of 2:1. Ultimately, when Ronald Reagan took control of his own campaign, he started to see successes. In this way, “the seeds of his victory” really were “sown in the dark hours of defeat.” By March of 1980, the National
Journal reported that Ronald Reagan had a “commanding lead” for the Republican nomination.”
“About 3 million. About 8% of blacks of the estimated 39,000,000 vote Republican.”
Your 39 million includes many who are ineligible to vote for one reason or another. 10 million or more are kids, plus some have spent time in prison.
I pay you no mind. You are a foul as they come.
I believe and all voters poll shows sarah with something like 40%. The others something like 50%, the thing to remember is sarah support is firm where as the others is not. I do believe at this stage I’d much rather have a smaller solid base of supporters then a larger wishy washy base of supporters. If she runs, she will win.
I think she will follow the campaign circuit and promote countless candidates like she did in ‘10. She gets a very large fee to use her star power and rightly so.
Yes, she is selling all sorts of promotional items, and I’m sure others are using her site to do so as well for a fee, etc. Her losing her Analyst position and reality fame would also suffer is she runs.
I don’t blame her one bit if she decides not to put herself and her family through another political ringer
Sounds stupid to me... Why would anyone want to restrict the number of choices?
LLS
We don't watch or read the same media.
Whether Sarah Palin is in or out of the race, I will not under any circumstances cast a vote for Mitt Romney, period. I’ve been McCained once and that’s all it takes.
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