Posted on 07/01/2011 11:06:50 AM PDT by randita
Republicans Try to Even the Score with New North Carolina Lines
Stuart Rothenberg July 1, 2011 · 12:20 PM EDT
National Republican strategists, still smarting from creative Democratic map-making in Illinois, finally have a reason to smile.
North Carolina Republicans have a new Congressional map that is likely to cost Democrats at least three seats and quite possibly four in 2012.
Republican insiders are particularly proud that the new map isn’t radically different from the current one (for example, all incumbents still live in their districts), and they note that relatively small changes have produced a map that should elect nine or ten Republicans, with just three safe Democratic seats.
GOP strategists maximized their advantage, creating the possibility later in the decade that Democrats could gain back a seat through population changes or even more in another Democratic wave year.
But that won’t be much of a consolation for Democrats in the Tar Heel state, who under the new map will be able to count only three safe seats -- two African American districts, currently held by Rep. Mel Watt and Rep. G.K. Butterfield, and a liberal seat centered in the Chapel Hill-Research Triangle area, currently held Rep. David Price.
In re-drawing the lines, GOP state legislators made some rock solid Republican congressional districts less secure, though all ten of the districts that Republicans expect to win sooner or later gave Republican presidential nominee John McCain at least 55 percent of the vote in 2008.
For example, the districts of four Republicans – Virginia Foxx, Howard Coble, Patrick McHenry and Walter Jones – were carried by John McCain with at least 60 percent of the vote. But under the new lines, McCain won the new districts with just 55 percent to 56 percent of the vote.
Republican insiders note that McCain’s showing in the state was weak, suggesting that in a better Republican year all of the non-safely Democratic districts should perform even better for the GOP.
Democratic Rep. Brad Miller will lose urban Wake County to Butterfield and in return pick up Republican voters in the northwest part of the county, making the district much more Republican. The district will also stretch further west, to Surry County, along the Virginia border. It goes from a 40 percent McCain district to a 55.7 percent McCain district under the new lines.
The new district will include two familiar GOP names, Nathan Tabor and Vernon Robinson, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress. Wake County Commissioner Paul Coble may look at the race, as well.
But also in the re-drawn district is George Holding, the former U.S. attorney who recently resigned after five years on the job. Holding comes from a prominent family, and insiders see him as a potentially formidable U.S. House candidate if he enters the contest.
Price will lose the southern part of Wake County, with its many Republicans, to freshman Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers, whose district goes from a 46 percent McCain to 55.5 percent McCain.
But Price picks up solidly Democratic voters in Fayetteville, who are removed from Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell’s district. Kissell also loses Democrats from Mecklenberg County (Charlotte), making his seat dramatically more Republican (from 47 percent McCain to 55.3 percent McCain). State Rep. Jerry Dockham (R) of Davidsonville is expected to look at running in Kissell’s re-drawn district.
Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler’s 11th C.D. loses most of the city of Ashville, an increasingly liberal area that continues to attract counterculture residents and voters. Those Democratic voters move into conservative Rep. Patrick McHenry’s district. But Republican McHenry, who has been representing a very Republican district, also gains Republican voters from Gaston County.
The new map may well be one reason why Shuler apparently is pursuing opportunities that do not include running for reelection from his western North Carolina district. Shuler’s district goes from a 52 percent McCain district to a 58 percent McCain district after redistricting.
Hendersonville district attorney Jeff Hunt (R) is seriously looking at running in Shuler’s re-drawn district.
Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre also finds himself in a less secure position, although his district is already conservative and Republican-leaning.
According to a knowledgeable GOP insider, McIntyre will be losing some Republicans and getting “different” Republicans, in Onslow and Carteret (Moorhead City) counties, forcing him to introduce himself to voters he doesn’t now represent. The district went 52 percent for McCain in 2008, but McCain received 55.3 percent under the new lines.
McIntyre had a close call in 2010, and his GOP opponent last cycle, Ilario Pantano, has already said that he is considering a re-match.
Two Democrats, Miller and Kissell, seem headed for extinction, while two others, Shuler and McIntyre, will have to struggle to hang onto their seats. If and when both districts become open, Democrats will have a very difficult time winning them.
For more analysis, go to the North Carolina-based John Davis Political Report. His full report should be available momentarily.
If Schuler, McIntyre, Kissel and Miller get knocked out, it should even the score with IL.
Wish they could have gotten rid of price but ok.
Yea North Carolina (still my favorite state, though I haven’t lived there in a while).
Well, I guess we’re taking one for the team behind enemy lines here in Durham (the 4th CD, now and forever represented by the execrable David Price). What I find interesting is that they’re going to gerrymander Price’s district to reach all the way down toward Fayettenam.
Sadly, it means that those of us here in the western Triangle, Durham and Orange counties, are under the heel of Price and his ultra-liberal racist and environazi allies now and forever.
}:-)4
The GOP has control of the North Carolina state legislature for the first time in 140 years, and they won it just in time to redraw state and congressional district lines (and the Democrat Governor can’t say boo about it). The new congressional district map approved in NC will almost certainly result in 10 GOP Representatives and only 3 Democrat Representatives. NC currently has a 7-6 Democrat delegation and had an 8-5 Democrat delegation from January 2007 to January 2011, so this is a huge swing towards the GOP.
Here are the black and non-Hispanic white percentages, and President Bush 2004 vote percentages, for the redrawn CDs in NC, which I got from http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress:
NC-01 (Butterfield’s black-majority CD):
51.80% black, 36.06% non-Hispanic white
38.89% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-02 (the CD Ellmers won from Etheridge last year):
16.95% black, 67.54% non-Hispanic white
63.96% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-03 (Walter Jones’s white-majority East Carolina CD):
23.92% black, 65.89% non-Hispanic white
60.97% Bush 2004
(COMFORTABLY REPUBLICAN)
NC-04 (Price’s Raleigh-Durham CD):
29.67% black, 51.49% non-Hispanic white
38.62% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-05 (Foxx’s western NC CD):
12.49% black, 76.49% non-Hispanic white
65.14% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-06 (Coble’s central NC CD):
15.19% black, 71.25% non-Hispanic white
62.52% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-07 (McIntyre’s SE NC CD):
17.27% black, 71.68% non-Hispanic white
59.46% Bush 2004
(LIKELY GOP TAKEOVER, UNLESS McINTYRE RUNS FOR REELECTION AS A DEMOCRAT, IN WHICH CASE THE GOP WOULD BE ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED)
NC-08 (Kissell’s Cabarrus County CD):
20.15% black, 60.60% non-Hispanic white
61.73% Bush 2004
(ALMOST CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF KISSELL RUNS)
NC-09 (Myrick’s Charlotte-area CD):
11.67% black, 75.33% non-Hispanic white
64.66% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-10 (McHenry’s western NC CD):
11.70% black, 79.53% non-Hispanic white
63.58% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-11 (Shuler’s far-western NC CD):
3.10% black, 87.59% non-Hispanic white
63.60% Bush 2004
(ALMOST CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF SHULER RUNS)
NC-12 (Watt’s black-plurality (now black-majority) CD):
50.54% black, 29.28% non-Hispanic white
30.66% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-13 (Miller’s northern NC CD):
14.85% black, 75.80% non-Hispanic white
69.82% Bush 2004
(CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF MILLER RUNS)
I wouldn’t be surprised if McIntyre switched to the GOP (he’s either the most conservative Democrat in Congress or the second-most conservative after Boren) instead of running for reelection as a Democrat, or if Shuler, Kissell and Miller retired.
Huge win for us.
Good news.....
A party switch by Mike McIntyre is iffy. He’s no doubt aware of what happened to Parker Griffith of Alabama. McIntyre is one of the most conservative DemocRATS in Congress, far more so than any others in his state’s delagation. It might be enough to get him reelected as a DemocRAT. He’s beaten party lines before.
This is definitely payback for Illinois. I hope that the North Carolina DemocRATS badger their Illinois peers about this.
Great breakdown. Thanks. With those Bush numbers, it astounds me that Obama won NC in ‘08, even if it was by only 16,000 odd votes. I don’t think Obama will win NC in ‘12.
If only Congressman BillyBob were still alive...
He would’ve made a fine Congressman. However, as I mentioned to him in a previous run, he was a bit short on cash. You gotta have $$ to make a serious bid... often around a cool million.
9, 10, 11 are pretty reasonable, on the whole. But they butchered the Piedmont, Triangle, and Sandhills.
President Bush got 56% in NC in both 2000 and 2004 (he probably would have gotten at least 58% in 2004 had John Edwards not been the Democrat VP nominee); McCain was held to 49% in 2008, largely due to one-time-only increased black and youth turnout and Obama’s one-time-only outperformance among white moderate-to-conservative voters. (BTW, the 7% drop in NC for the GOP was lower than the 9% or so drop in VA and the 12% drop or so in IN.) Obama will be lucky to come within 5% of winning NC in 2012.
Forgot to mention: High Point to Tennessee.
I had hoped they would redraw Butterfield’s district. :(
Never met him. But I cherished the relationship.
As it happened, John was no doubt responsible for defeating the execrable Charles Taylor -- but ended up electing the buffoon Heath Shuler.
GOP legislators weren’t trying to draw 13 compact CDs; they were trying to draw 10 GOP CDs. And I think they accomplished that. And it did so without completely redrawing the basic shapes of the current CDs.
Is it perfect? Of course not. I would have placed some counties from the NC-11 in the NC-05 to make things even harder on Shuler without having to decrease the GOP percentage in the NC-10 that much; I would have placed all Mecklenberg precincts not in the NC-12 in the NC-09 (which would also make the NC-08 more comfortably Republican); and maybe I would have tried to get more black precincts SW of Fayetteville in the NC-04. But you can’t fault the redistricters from placing half of Robeson County in a CD with counties far away—they want to defeat McIntyre, and keeping Robeson whole plays into McIntyre’s hands. And GOP parts of NE Wake County *had* to be connected to Alamance County, etc. (although perhaps not Mount Airy) because they are separated from GOP precincts in south and west Wake by the Dem precincts in Raleigh. And making the NC-12 a black-majority CD means that even if Dems get control of redistricting at some point they’d still have to draw two black-majority CDs in the state.
I have to tip my hat to NC Republican legislators for having the gonads to draw 10 GOP districts that gave President Bush 59%+ in 2004.
They would serve the public interest better by drawing more compact districts and giving greater deference to existing political boundaries.
And it did so without completely redrawing the basic shapes of the current CDs.
I have no idea why this should be a consideration. Draw the districts right, regardless of what was done in the past -- as we know, the past maps were a result of gerrymandering.
The map isn't terrible. But.
And GOP parts of NE Wake County *had* to be connected to Alamance County, etc. (although perhaps not Mount Airy) because they are separated from GOP precincts in south and west Wake by the Dem precincts in Raleigh.
Not true. Wake could have been split between one GOP-leaning CD and VRA CD1. No reason for CD4 to dip into Raleigh. As long as they're gerrymandering to Fayetteville, might as well include Robeson in CD4. But that does cut the population up in an unworkable way.
Riddle me this, though: why is Carteret County split? Randolph doesn't need to be split.
Why is Catawba County split? (looks like Hickory, formerly the center of the district, has been ripped out and put into CD5). That appears to be a direct result of Republican unhappiness with empty suit Rep. Patrick McHenry -- by taking out Hickory, he dramatically cuts down the chance of a successful primary challenge. Catawba County has never been crazy about him, and now by chopping it up this career politician scumbag gets a free ride every cycle.
You are assuming that the parts of Raleigh that were placed in the NC-04 wouldn’t have made the NC-02 less Republican had they been placed in the NC-02. Raleigh is too big to place all of it in the black-majority NC-02 (unless you *really* gerrymander it to extract white parts of the rural counties) and too Democrat to place it in the NC-02 without giving Etheridge a good chance of winning it back.
As for Hickory, they removed it because they wanted McHenry to take on all of those Democrat precincts in Asheville, so Hickory had to go so as to (i) keep the NC-10 within the population limit and (ii) keep McHenry’s base within the district. I don’t think that redistricters should have drawn a district for the express purpose of defeating McHenry, even if you think that he’s an empty suit (personally, I think that he’s a principled conservative and hope that he runs for the Senate in 2014). I would love for Walter Jones and Virginia Foxx to be sent packing, but I wouldn’t expect the legislature to try to kick them out.
As for Carteret County being split, it was done in order for NC-03 and NC-07 to have the required population. Had Carteret not been split, some other county would have had to have been; and placing at least part of Carteret in the NC-07 makes it harder for McIntyre to hold the seat.
Drawing a bunch of square districts, or looking at “communities of interest” first and foremost, would have probably resulted in at best an 8-5 GOP map. This map is nowhere near as abhorrent as the RAT gerrymander of 2001 (not to mention of 1991), and it should serve to get rid of the remaining “moderate” or “conservative” Democrats that have kept the NC delegation Democrat for decades. Maybe after 2020 NC can draw square districts and have, say, a 10-4 GOP delegation (NC will pick up a Representative next time), but I don’t want ten more years of Blue Dogs calling the shots in Congress.
Here’s a picture of the new map:
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