Posted on 08/14/2011 12:00:53 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I listen ad nauseam to posters, some who are pro-Palin and some who are anti-Palin, discourse about Sarah Palin's entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 Presidential sweepstakes, generally advising her to "Hurry up!". Those afflicted with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) gleefully proclaim that she is not running. Of course, not only is there no evidence for this proposition, her actions in the last six months, as well as many of her statements, would lead any rational observer to believe that she will run. But leaving aside the PDSers (who are in any case engaging in wishful thinking because they do not want her to run), let me turn to the not insignificant number of Palinistas who are anxious that she should unambiguously announce her candidacy YESTERDAY or, at the very least, today. They are being taunted by the Establishment and the Mainstream Media over the delay in Palin's announcement. The Establishment is motivated by a desire that Palin, if she means to get in, enter the race sooner rather than later for strategic reasons, as I will explain. The media, always hungry for ratings, is motivated by a desire to have Palin in the race because her presence will juice up their withering balance sheets. The Palinistas merely want to be able to advocate for her as an official candidate and to hurl a collective "I told ya so" at her detractors. None of these constitutes a valid reason for her to adjust her announcement schedule if she wants to actually increase her chances of winning the nomination. There are many reasons to delay. The other candidates will begin to fade and to drop out, as they have. There is not clear frontrunner, which there isn't. The field is weak, which it is. And the candidates have not been vetted, which will cause their support to erode over time. On the other hand, Palin has 100% name recognition and is very popular with the GOP base. She does not need to introduce herself to them, although she will have to re-introduce herself to the national electorate, a process that she already begun with her bus tour and movie.
The most compelling reason to delay is very simple. Money. Palin will have to run an insurgent campaign. I believe she will have adequate funding, but she will not be able to compete with Establishment candidates like Romney and Perry in fundraising. A longer campaign, while it might warm the cockles of the Palinista heart, plays to the advantage of the well heeled Establishment candidates. A shorter campaign neutralizes that advantage. Both Romney and Perry will have more money than Palin. That is certain. But it is far from decisive. In 1979, Eastern Establishment scion George Bush outraised Ronald Reagan by a wide margin for his 1980 run, and former Texas Governor John Connally raised more than both, an up to that time unheard-of $11 million (for which he garnered a single delegate, before dropping out after the South Carolina primary). As Craig Shirley reported in his book, Rendezvous with Destiny, Reagan was cash-strapped when he announced (in November 1979)and did not have enough money to purchase a half hour of broadcast time the night of his announcement. And Reagan was nearly completely broke after the New Hampshire primary, while Bush continued to run a well funded campaign. Bush and Conally used their largesse to run longer, more expensive campaigns, defeating Reagan in virtually every straw poll in the summer and fall of 1979. (In Iowa, among the candidates on the straw poll ballot, it was Bush: 36%; Connally: 15% ; Bob Dole: 14%; Ronald Reagan 11%) The Gipper did worse in others, often finishing in single digits, as he did in an Oregon straw poll won by Bush with 35%. (h/t: Rendezvous with Destiny, Chapter 4)
What nearly cost Reagan the nomination in 1980 was a) the overspending of his campaign BEFORE and after his announcement and b) his failure to compete vigorously in Iowa(he visited the state only once) He lost narrowly to Bush 33-31 on caucus night. Bachmann's straw poll win garnered her some free publicity, but she bought 6000 tickets (@ $35 a pop) and received only 4800 votes.
The delay in Palin's announcement is principally rooted in a desire to neutralize the Establishment's money advantage. She already has a grass roots organization on the ground in Iowa (where she has been observed twice now in the company of Iowa fundraiser Becky Beach). She is not going to play in straw polls which do nothing but swell the coffers of the Establishment state parties, which by and large oppose her, and which garner no delegates. And her two recent visits to Iowa, to Pella and Ames, which were accompanied by raucous receptions, as well as her upcoming speech to the Tea Party activists at Wauka on September 3, indicate that she is not about to repeat the Gipper's mistake of overlooking Iowa.
Her entry in the next few weeks will cut Bachmann's support in the state in half, but she will also draw votes from conservative Catholics (who find Bachmann off-putting) and from the two governors still in the race, Romney and Perry. She is able to draw not just from the Evangelical wing (where she will shrink Bachmann dramatically) but from the CATO economic libertarian wing which finds both Perry's crony capitalism and Romney's statism anathema and which does not like Bachmann's high profile evangelical fervor.
Far from threatening her campaign, Sarah Palin's delay in announcing will prove to have been a brilliant move, as as well as a fiscally prudent one (portending no doubt the kind of Administration she will run), and it will set the standard for insurgent candidates in future races.
I agree. Iowa and New Hampshire both have long track records of picking candidates who *didn't* win the nomination and, by then, the media will also be able to pronounce Sarah's campaign dead and buried which will make the comeback all the more stunning.
“And they are all green.”
Like Caiphas, you prophesy correctly her. And like Caiphas, you do not understand your own prophecy.
I really hope she runs.
You said:
the historic great fortune about to shine on another rare woman of world history who will triumphantly lead her people out of darkness, with love and grace.
I thought Jesus Christ did that???
People choose to live in the darkness, they can come to the light anytime they want....
Your post raises many other important issues, including the different media available now, and which Palin is so adept at using. Her entry and her concomitant use of the new media will be the ultimate in political shock and awe. None of these media were available to the Gipper and it made his job much harder.
Me too. But seriously, she'll need to obtain ballot access, which is a state-by-state gauntlet that the two parties have honed to exclude challengers.
You can't have it both ways. Either you said it (which we all know you did) and are implying that she's lieing when she says that she is considering a run, or you were just horribly misunderstood, and "she has not intention of running" has some alternate meaning on the planet where you live.
The last refuge of any scoundrel is to attack the guy who nails him in the act. Suck it up, squid.
;^\
“looks like a deer caught in headlights when someone interviews her.”
Which interview are you talking about? Please be specific. Because the interviews I have seen with tough interviewers like Chris Wallace she has handled well.
Just posting something like that convinces no one. It makes people suspect that you are parroting Establishment talking points.
You just can't help yourself, can you? There are only nine (9) states out of 50 where Palin's advance teams have yet to get ready for her presidential announcement. All the early primary States have been ready to roll for almost two months.
You just keep listening to Tokyo Rove and spreading his PDS lies like a good little butt-boy. That's a good job for you. Right up your alley.
8^\
“Bachmann will be out of money in a couple months.”
She spent $200K just buying the 6000 votes at Ames (of which she got 4800), not to mention the barbecue, transport and other things. She probably dropped a million on the meaningless straw poll. She will be broke before Halloween.
________________________________________________________
Recall that her last FEC showed Bachmann had to move $2 mil from her Congressional war chest to pump the numbers for her presidential run. During the same period Newt pulled $2 something mil, approx equaling MB pres donations.
So unless MB gets a sudden torrent of funds she’s got to plead for more on the radio shows as before, to try and maintain her current visibility momentum. Her sucker play will be to accept any MSM invite she gets where she lays herself open to ambushes and large scale exposure of her flaws.
http://vodpod.com/watch/4458398-palin-silent-on-endorsee
But the comment was based on most of the interviews I've seen her do since 2008, including the many that she does on Fox as a consultant.
Thank you so much for your well reasoned and insightful thoughts.
I posted this on another thread recently. Feel free to critique my analysis and let me know what you agree/disagree with, and why. Thanks.
“We can look at her movements from two perspectives. Either she’s running or she’s not and she has already decided, but is just waiting to announce what that decision is.
Option 1: She’s not running. So she’s taking her family all around this great nation of ours on a bus tour and speaking to all the right people and getting seen in all the right places... why? Being a king-maker is nice, but can be done better in a pinpoint fashion of making individual appearances to promote individual candidates. Much of the king-making process can also be done from her home in Alaska by making televised appearances and sending out messages on social networking sites. A bus tour isn’t the best option if she’s not planning a run.
Option 2: She’s running. Right now she could be fine-tuning her campaign strategy based on what she sees working - and not working - for the other candidates. She’s gauging reactions to the hot-button issues and seeing where they’re stumbling or where the other candidates’ lines are falling flat. Plus, she’s still getting coaching on things like foreign policy and practicing her public speaking voice and avoiding the ‘gotcha’ situations that are bound to come up in interviews. No point in starting now when she can keep making improvements that will make her a stronger candidate and a stronger leader and a better president. After all, she’s seen with 0bama what happens when a person assumes the office without being fully prepared for the awesome responsibilities inherent therein.”
Very sage analysis. This is exactly what is going to happen to her. Her burn rate with Rollins and those other hacks has got to be outrageous. Plus the bundle she dropped in Ames. I bet she is close to broke now.
The non-Establishment fundraising, which is all Bachmann can get, it frozen in place until Sarah announces. Palin can sit back and watch Bachmann wither on the vine as she runs out of money. Then enter and be flush with cash.
“On most other issues she sounds completely clueless.”
You mean like QE 2 and Death panels in Obamacare. Yeah. Right. Your soft soap Palin bashing with no proof is getting kinda stale.
You are so full of it. She just didn’t want to humiliate Baxter who didn’t have his facts straight, as usual. Even someone as PDS afflicted as you can’t believe that Palin forgot she endorsed Kelly Ayotte. She just visited her and went to breakfast with her. Lame. Really lame.
We can thank NH and Huck for giving us Juan McCain.
Fine, we'll just have to disagree. Sure looked like 'deer in the headlights' to me.
That is kind of interesting...If Sarah Palin did become President, what would her husband do all day???
He seems kind of quiet and shy to me....Would he want to be in the limelight? or would he spend alot of time back at there home in Alaska, where he could do his own thing....
I don’t think he would be called *First Dude* proably the first gentlemen?
Todd does not remind me of some garage tinker person, he seems a bit young for that...Maybe he will just sit in the Man Cave and watch the Winter Olympics! LOL...
I have been on this board for many years and I have to say after seeing your name many times in the fast few months that you are the most hateful poster that I have seen. There is no need for the vitriol that you spew regularly.
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