Posted on 08/20/2011 1:39:41 PM PDT by Libloather
Five most vulnerable Dems in redistricting
By Cameron Joseph - 08/20/11 07:30 AM ET
Congress’s lines are being redrawn, putting some longtime incumbents in a tough spot heading into next year’s election. Due to population shifts and partisan interests, some congressional districts are undergoing extreme makeovers, forcing their representatives to run in unfamiliar and sometimes inhospitable territory. Here are the five most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
#5: Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.)
Missouri is losing a congressional district, and Republicans in control of the Missouri statehouse overrode Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon’s veto to axe Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis district. He still plans to run for Congress and seems to be leaning towards a Republican-leaning district that includes much of the territory represented by Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), who is running for the Senate. His centrist record could help keep him in the House, but the district is about 53 percent Republican and he may face a rematch with Republican Ed Martin, who lost to Carnahan in a more Democratic district by just two points in 2010.
#4: Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.)
Shuler, a centrist Blue Dog Democrat, survived the 2010 wave election in a Republican-leaning western North Carolina district. But Republicans have made his district even more conservative in redistricting, removing half of the liberal college town Asheville from the district. Shuler’s nine-point win in a terrible year for Democrats proves he will be a tough foe, but while the old district gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 52 percent of the vote the new one would have given him at least 58 percent.
#3: Mark Critz (D-Pa.)
Pennsylvania is losing a congressional district and Republicans are in control of the map-drawing process. The southwest part of the state he hails from has had the slowest population growth and Critz’s district can be easily parceled out to Republicans without weakening them too much. He may be paired with fellow centrist Democrat Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) in a tossup district, or may choose to run an uphill race against Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) in a heavily Republican district.
#2: Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.)
Michigan lost population in the last decade and the Republicans in control of the statehouse targeted Peters’s suburban Detroit district for removal. He has few good options: he could either take on longtime and popular Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) in a primary, or take on a nearby Republican in a tough to win district, possibly Rep. Thad McCotter (R-Mich.).
#1: Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
Like Shuler, Kissell survived a competitive 2010 race, winning with 53 percent of the vote. But he is known as more of a liberal and his district goes from one that would have given McCain 47 percent of the vote to one that would have given him 57 percent of the vote.
Honorable mentions: Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (Calif.), Linda Sanchez (Calif.), Brad Sherman (Calif.), John Barrow (Ga.), Bill Keating (Mass.), Mike McIntyre (N.C.), Brad Miller (N.C.), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Leonard Boswell (Iowa).
HA HA HA...use to have all of Travis Cty which is Austin, TX. liberal hole. He barely has any of Travis Cty. He now has a whole bunch of republican counties...
There are a whole lot more than five vulnerable Dems, a couple dozen who are in very deep trouble politically. In the generic ballot, GOP beats Dems by about 7%. They are going to get stomped into the dust unless unemployment drops below 8% (which is impossible with the socialist in our White House).
Critz occupies the district that John Murtha had. Gerrymandered beyond belief. I heard, a year and a half ago, that that district might be eliminated. Yay!!! Go away Critz!!
Doggett can still run in a district that it includes most of Austin’s liberal neighborhoods, but the CD also takes in many overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in South San Antonio and Doggett would have a much tougher time beating a San Antonio Hispanic Democrat in the primary than he did against that underfunded Hispanic Democrat (her last name was Hinojosa, nonrelation to the congressman, IIRC) from McAllen in 2004 back when his district squirreled south all the way to the Mexican border (when Doggett bought himself plentiful endorsements from Lower Rio Grande Valley Hispanic Democrats). So I think that Doggett will finally be gone.
The Supreme Court believes otherwise.
Majority minority districts were created in response to a SCOTUS dictate.
. I elieve TPT meant Asheville was a town with a college, not a college town.
Personally, I prefer to think of Asheville as the San Francisco of the Smokies...
Math question:
Is there a reason that an algorith could not draw district boundaries to simply minimize the length of the district boundaries, i.e., compact contiguous districts and no gerrymandering possible?
It is possible and has been done --
But to be legal, the districts would have to comply with the Voting Rights Act and applicable court decisions.
There are also common sense guidelines that may make more sense than strict compactness, such as grouping communities of interest and following existing political boundaries (precinct, town, city, county lines).
FIVE????? ONLY FIVE????? Good freaking grief!! It SHOULD be 195!!!!!
YMCA doesn’t “dominate” Asheville like, for instance, HVAC dominates Athens, or UF Gainesville in traditional college towns.
Congress should do their job and impeach several of the justices. Well, at this point it needs to wait until after 2012.
I really wish 20 or 30 year limits would be put on the Justices. Life time appointments for these clowns is insane.
Bye Bye Peters!
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