Posted on 09/14/2011 10:09:27 PM PDT by Antoninus
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 14, 2011
Mary Beth Hutchins or Elizabeth Ray at 703-683-5004
WEPRIN VOTE FOR GAY MARRIAGE COST HIM SEAT IN CONGRESS
Washington –The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) today released a “flash” survey conducted yesterday among voters of New York’s 9th Congressional District which demonstrates that David Weprin’s support of same-sex marriage was a major factor in his loss to Republican Bob Turner.
“This survey demonstrates what many people have been saying for a long time – David Weprin’s vote in favor of same-sex marriage cost him election to the US House,” said Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage. “NOM funded a major independent expenditure campaign in this race and the survey shows that marriage was a major factor in the race and cost Weprin the election.” The election of Republican Bob Turner marks the first time this district has been represented by a Republican since the early 1920s.
The survey by QEV Analytics interviewed 251 actual or highly likely voters in the NY 9th Congressional District and concluded just as the polls closed last evening. It found the following:
Fifty percent (50%) of district voters believe that marriage should only be between one man and one woman; while only 38% of voters disagree (13% didn’t express an opinion). Marriage supporters include 88% of Orthodox Jews, 53% of Catholics and 47% of other Christians. There is a high correlation between a person’s position on marriage and their vote between Turner and Weprin. Those who agree marriage should only be between a man and a woman voted for Turner 81% - 19%. Turner won Orthodox Jews 91% - 9%; Catholics by 72%-28%; Other Christians 53% - 47%. Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%; among Other/None/DK 76%-24%.
Moreover, among those who agree with the traditional definition of marriage, 44% said Weprin’s position was a factor in their vote, while 29% of those who disagree said his position was a factor. Voters told the pollster that David Weprin’s position on same-sex marriage was a specific factor in the voting decision of 72% of Orthodox Jews, 29% of Other Jews, 27% of Catholics, 33% of Other Christians, 27% of other/None/DK.
“When the New York legislature voted to redefine marriage, NOM vowed that we would hold those legislators accountable. This is what happened last night,” Brown said. “Legislators were sold a bill of goods when they were told by Andrew Cuomo, Michael Bloomberg and the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) that they could redefine marriage and suffer no political consequences. All you have to do is look at David Weprin’s shocking loss to Bob Turner to understand that voting for same-sex marriage has consequences. Weprin just lost one of the most Democratic Congressional seats in the country in large part because of his vote to redefine marriage. Cuomo, Bloomberg and the HRC couldn’t save him and neither will they be able to save other legislators when it comes time for them to face voters.”
QEV derived the survey sample from a random selection of registered voters in the district most likely to vote in a special election. They carefully monitored the age distribution of the obtained sample so that it matched the age distribution of those likely voters. They weighted the obtained results so that these precisely matched the actual vote result.
The survey sample was 13% Orthodox Jewish, 25% Other Jewish, 36% Catholic, 12% Other Christian, 14% Other Faiths + No Faith + No Response. The margin of sampling error for Orthodox Jews on the ballot question is +/- 10%, which means that actual result of the ballot question could theoretically be as close as 81% Turner/19% Weprin.
I always thought sample size was based on variance within the population from which you seek to draw inferences. This is a yes or no issue. I question where that 400 figure came from.
I may be mistaken, that number is awfully small. If you run into even a small group of similiar-minded people not representative of the general public you can skew the results if the total count is only 251.
I would not be terribly surprised to find that gay marriage is very unpopular, I just wouldn’t get worked up on a sample that small.
“I really think a wrench of some kind was thrown into their election fraud machine this time, for whatever reason.”
I hope that happens more often.
“NOM should stifle themselves. NY-09 happened because of Obama, not gay marriage!”
I live in NY 9. You don’t know what you are talking about. Of course it was about gay marriage. Yes, they don’t like Obama but if weprin wasn’t for gay marriage he would have easily won. Jews voting for a catholic over another Jew? That would be like blacks in Harlem voting for McCain instead of Obama.
“Ignored in virtually all the mainstream media coverage is another factor leading to opposition among Weprin’s fellow Jews: New York’s same-sex marriage legislation, which Weprin supported. Of all the sources quoted above, only HuffPo mentions this:
Weprin also became embroiled in New York-centric disputes over Israel and gay marriage, which cost him some support among Jewish voters.
Orthodox Jews, who tend to be conservative on social issues, expressed anger over Weprin’s vote in the Assembly to legalize gay marriage. In July, New York became one of six states to recognize same-sex nuptials.”
Read more: http://www.ncregister.com/blog/steven-greydanus/post-weiner-election#ixzz1Y5J2joQE
Even the Huffington admits what an important factor Weprin’s vote for same-sex “marriage” was.
Turner won Orthodox Jews 91% - 9%
Turner won Catholics by 72% - 28%
Turner won among non-Catholic Christians 53% - 47%
Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%
The first stat with the Orthodox Jews is amazing to me. I agree it's unprecedented in American politics, and would be similar to blacks in Harlem voting for McCain. Orthodox Jews have always been the most politically “conservative” of the three major Jewish denominations but by no means have ever been overwhemingly Republican like say, Mormons. In fact, they're probably best described as the “least liberal” of the three main types of Jews. Also, we have to remember Weprin himself IS an Orthodox Jew. That doesn't seem to have helped him one bit. The pre-election polls showing an orthodox Jewish landslide weren't overly optimistic, they were correct.
The Catholic vote is impressive too. Yes, Bob Turner himself IS Catholic but this ain't the JFK era where Catholics show up and blindly vote for whoever is Catholic because they've never been in power before. (just ask John Kerry how much being Catholic helped him with Catholic voters) Being a Catholic politician in NYC is hardly news. Catholics are swing voters nationwide, from what read they're just about 50-50% on the GOP/Dem spectrum in modern America. Turner obviously was far more popular with Catholics that Weprin.
Then we have the “other Christians”. Since it's NYC, I'm guessing this category is almost entirely made up of Protestants. (even nationally, Orthodox Christians are a tiny percentage of the population), or they'd be “nondenominational Christians” who refuse to identify as protestant for some reason. Protestants seemed about equally divided in this election, Turner wins by a slim margin but that's probably because the district as a whole voted for him so undecided protestants went with the perceived “winner” at the last second. You can't argue the close divide is a racial split, as the district is only 4% black. Probably a great deal of white protestants favored the RAT.
Then we have... non-Orthodox Jews. Unlike the “non-Catholic Christians” behind shorthand for protestants, this could probably be all sorts of Jewish voters — Conservative (not politically conservative, the denomination is called Conservative) Jews, Reform Jews, Reconstructionist Jews (have no idea what that is and it's probably not that common, but it seems to be a distinct denomination), nondenominational, and of course secular Jews who come from a Jewish family and heritage but don't practice the faith (betsa the last group voted overwhemingly for Weprin). Overall, any Jew that wasn't Orthodox voted the way that Jewish voters usually vote in America — heavily for Democrats. Not at the 80% level Obama got, but 70% is certainly a huge advantage for the RATs. And I must remind freepers, Orthodox Jews may make up a big percentage (40%?) of NY-9 Jews, but nationally they're only 10% of Jewish voters. So if you're expecting a huge “Jewish” swing nationally to the GOP, don't get your hopes up.
It's interesting how a bunch of freepers claim Catholic voters are more “liberal” than Protestants and like to point out that heavily Catholic states are RAT, but in this case the Catholics heavily voted for the conservative Republican where nearly half of the white protestants supported the RAT.
Some food for thought: People within a religion can tell the difference between themselves and another denomination of their faith almost instantly, but outsiders rarely can. For example, I visited an jewish synagogue a few months ago and had no idea where it was Conservative, Othorodox, or Reform until I asked, but I told a Jewish friend about the trip and she recognized as Reform Jews right away (because wearing Yarmulkes during the Shabat service was optional). Whereas I would immediately be able to tell whether I was in a Catholic Church or a southern baptist one, but a Muslim who was learning about Christianity had no clue that service he observed near me was a Pentecostal protestant service and not a Catholic one. Maybe there are some big cultural divides between Orthodox and Reform/Conservative Jews that escapes me.
I do think those “wedge” social issues like abortion and gay marriage played a big part in this race, motivating Catholics and Orthodox Jews to show up for a special election and vote for Turner because he shared their views. The liberal media and even some freepers have this talking point about how “social conservatives” outside the bible belt are “unelectable” and scare away nice suburban moderate mom in droves. Of course, if that was true you'd never seen urban RATs like State Senator Ruben Diaz in NYC be so outspoken AGAINST gay marriage or Congressman Dan Lipinski (who represents a Chicago based district), rally against Obamacare because it funds abortion. The liberal media and the freepers who tout RINOs can't explain why these urban RATs would push for such “losing” issues, so they simply ignore it.
Whereas I've noticed that even in areas that are otherwise completely socialist, you'll find alot of voters who are pro-life and pro-traditional marriage.
And here the "demography is destiny" argument works in our favor for once. The Orthodox are known for their enormous families.
NY-09 is one more seat in the House. That's wonderful! But limited, since we don't even have the Senate, much less the White House.
But there is a larger narrative, extending well beyond the gerrymandered borders of NY-09, that addresses the meaning and significance of the election result. If it's seen as a referendum on gay marriage, that's fine and dandy, but, come November 2012, Zero gets re-elected.
I'd prefer the country view the NY-09 result as a rejection of Zero, everything he stands for, the Democrat Party, and eight decades of social progress
.
IOW, thank you very much, NOM, now get off your high horse and STFU!
Do not believe.
From what I hear, Orthodox Jews and Reform Jews are both increasing their percentages. Conservative Jews are losing ground. But Orthodox Jews currently have far less members than Conservative or Reform and will remain that way for quite sometime.
Excellent analysis.
BTW, the survey found that only 4% of voters in the special election were Hispanic, which is far less than PPP predicted in its poll. This helps explain how Turner won such a huge supermajority among Catholic voters: mostly Irish, socially conservative Catholics in Rockaway (Turner’s home base) cast a larger percentage of the district’s Catholic vote than they would have had there been higher turnout among Hispanics in central Queens.
Ping
Truth. To be a social liberal is to be a fiscal liberal in the long run. After all, the taxpayers end up being the ones forced to pay for the consequences and results of social liberalism in society.
Bingo. This point needs to be hammered again and again until the “liberal on social issues” crowd gets it.
Wow. And against an Orthodox rat. To think some of us were worried about running a goy(?) Republican.
So that helped fuel his huge 2-1 win the Brooklyn portion (Weprin actually won the larger Queens portion).
All the returns still aren't in yet as far as I can tell. Weird.
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