Posted on 09/23/2011 10:07:53 AM PDT by Evil Slayer
A huge, dead satellite tumbling to Earth is falling slower than expected, and may now plummet down somewhere over the United States tonight or early Saturday, despite forecasts that it would miss North America entirely, NASA officials now say.
The 6 1/2-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) was expected to fall to Earth sometime this afternoon (Sept. 23), but changes in the school bus-size satellite's motion may push it to early Saturday, according to NASA's latest observations of the spacecraft.
"The satellite's orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent," NASA officials wrote in a morning status update today. "There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent."
NASA expects about 26 large pieces of the UARS spacecraft to survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere and reach the planet's surface. The biggest piece should weigh about 300 pounds. The spacecraft is the largest NASA satellite to fall from space uncontrolled since 1979.
(Excerpt) Read more at space.com ...
PING.
Nah, that was a Dream-Lifter trying to get home.
Jupiter had a good view of the whole thing.
I bet!
Even if a person were laying down, they'd only cover a 1 meter square area. So, assume 6 billion people - every one of them laying down, and nobody in houses or multi-story buildings, and nobody laying “next to” some else ....
6 billion sq meters of potential target area. Max.
Area of earth (land) = 148,847,000 km2 or 148 x 10^6 x 1000 x 1000 = 148 x 10^12 sq meters.
But it will probably hit the ocean -> total area of the earth = 510072000 sq km x 1000 x 1000 = 5.1 x 10^14 meters. (Granted, the orbit is not all the way up to the north pole, but that can be corrected for .. )
So, how did they get 1/3200 chance?
6x 10^9/5.1 x10^14 ain't no 1/3200.
“So, how did they get 1/3200 chance?”
Because some people are unlucky.
Aloha BIGLOOK! Looks like there is nothing overhead for you to see. The person “tweeting” on NASA’s twitter account said this almost 30 minutes ago:
NASA NASA
We’re still waiting for #UARS Done! confirmation. If debris fell on land (and that’s still a BIG if), Canada is most likely area.
23 minutes ago
JanelleMarietta Janelle Marietta
@
@UARS_Reentry 49° 42’ 0” N / 112° 50’ 0” W. I saw the debris between 11:20- 11:40pm GMT.
3 minutes ago
Janelle Marietta
JanelleMarietta Janelle Marietta
@
@UARS_Reentry @SpaceTrails Saw obvious debris moving very quickly to the North West roughly 15 minutes ago. (From Lethbridge)
12 minutes ago
JanelleMarietta Janelle Marietta
@
@UARS_Reentry 49° 42’ 0” N / 112° 50’ 0” W. I saw the debris between 11:20- 11:40pm GMT.
3 minutes ago
Janelle Marietta
JanelleMarietta Janelle Marietta
@
@UARS_Reentry @SpaceTrails Saw obvious debris moving very quickly to the North West roughly 15 minutes ago. (From Lethbridge)
12 minutes ago
They used Micheal Moore for they calculations of human size..
You are asking the wrong man. I think the odds were based on land mass vs ocean and actual orbit. That is a tough analysis RAC. PE.
NASA satellite crashes to Earth
www.yahoo.com
Any chance a statue on Easter Island was whacked..........
One of the many problems found in relying upon unconfirmed rumors, gossip and guesses from keyboard cowboys on twitter and elsewhere:
AstroCalgary AstronomyCalgary
Reports UARS landed in Alberta are spurious or just hoaxes. Nothing was visible from here. And several knowledgeable observers were looking.
8 minutes ago
6 billion square meters = 6,000 square km.
Earth’s surface area is 510,072,000 square km, like you said.
Therefore the odds for a piece of a satellite in a polar orbit (covering all surface area) would be 1 in 85,012.
I couldn’t find reliable data for how much of the Earth’s surface is beyond the satellite’s orbit inclination of 57 degrees, but let’s say 90% of the Earth’s surface is within the orbit zone.
That makes the odds 1 in 76,510 (.9 times 85,012).
NASA expected 26 pieces of the satellite to survive the reentry process; getting hit by any of the 26 pieces qualifies as “getting hit.”
That makes the odds in our scenario 1 in 3,270 (85,012 divided by 26).
Not far off.
A six-ton NASA science satellite plunged to earth early on Saturday, but where any debris ended up was not immediately clear.
Re-entry was expected between 11:45 p.m. EDT Friday and 12:45 a.m. on Saturday, NASA said. During that period, the defunct Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite passed over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans.
NASA was attempting to confirm the re-entry location and time.
http://news.yahoo.com/falling-six-ton-satellite-headed-toward-earth-011725135.html
Nothing heard on the Calgary news station FWIW.
My back-of-the-napkin version of that analysis is at post 617. Not terribly complex.
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