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Greece Falls Into 'Death Spiral': Rising Debt, No Growth
cnbc ^ | Monday, 3 Oct 2011 | None

Posted on 10/03/2011 7:05:53 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi

Drowning in red ink, Greece has nowhere to turn to revive the economic growth that might put its debt on a sustainable trajectory, reassure angry foreign creditors and offer hope to its recession-weary citizens.

Instead, the country finds itself in a vicious circle—a death spiral, some would say—in which it is borrowing ever more to keep up on its existing debts, crushing growth in the process and thereby worsening its all-important ratio of debt-to-gross domestic product.

Springing the debt trap would not be a miracle cure either: a manageable level of borrowing is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Greece to start restoring competitiveness and resume growth after three years of economic contraction.

"If there was a deus ex machina tomorrow and you halved Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio overnight, there'd obviously be a huge benefit in terms of cash flow," said George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS in London.

"So you can alleviate the financial stress on Greece quite quickly and effectively, but I don't think that in and of itself means the economy is going to grow," he said.

New figures dramatize Athens's bind. As recently as July, the International Monetary Fund was forecasting that Greece would eke out 0.6 percent growth next year. Just 10 weeks later, it reckons the economy will in fact shrink 2.5 percent in 2012 after a 5.5 percent slump this year.

With tax revenues shrinking as the economy shrivels, debt is likely to rise to an eye-watering 173 percent of GDP in 2012 from 162 percent this year.

To illustrate the speed of the deterioration, the IMF based its May 2010 bailout of Greece on forecasts that gross debt would peak in 2012 at 149 percent of GDP.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bhoeconomy; collapse; commies; debt; decline; default; dollarcollapse; europeancollapse; grease; greece; obamanomics; obamasdepression; prepperping; survivalping
Greece's debt could not have gotten so high except that they don't print their own money. They could raise interest rates and find additional euro's all across Europe. If that wasn't enough, their creditors would give them a bit more.

Even with that opportunity the game is up. Their debt increases all on it's own. It's gone exponential.

1 posted on 10/03/2011 7:05:58 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

2 posted on 10/03/2011 7:07:33 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The USSR spent itself into bankruptcy and collapsed -- and aren't we on the same path now?)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

over 40% work for the government.


3 posted on 10/03/2011 7:08:21 PM PDT by ken21 (ruling class dem + rino progressives -- destroying america for 150 years.)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

All the Asian Markets are down again tonight.
Look out..


4 posted on 10/03/2011 7:09:54 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

This just in, socialism doesn’t work.


5 posted on 10/03/2011 7:10:17 PM PDT by Patrick1 ("The problem with Internet quotations is that many are not genuine." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

A nation of addicts is about to run out of crack cocaine.


6 posted on 10/03/2011 7:10:32 PM PDT by lurk
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To: ken21

50 million Americans are retired on Social Security and don’t work for the government.


7 posted on 10/03/2011 7:14:03 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi
Drowning in red ink, [INSERT NATION HERE] has nowhere to turn to revive the economic growth that might put its debt on a sustainable trajectory, reassure angry foreign creditors and offer hope to its recession-weary citizens.

"Death spiral." Now there's an interesting term. Sort of what one might expect to happen to a culture of death.

8 posted on 10/03/2011 7:16:07 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (...then they came for the guitars, and we kicked their sorry faggot asses into the dust)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

Greece Debt spending is 10% of GDP, the real economic standard is down 12.3%, meaning Greece is yet another country in a prolonged economic depression. That level of deficit spending is never sustainable, and the problems are incredible - you might get away with it for a single year, but you then add to the core government commitments of spending - covering that deficit spending plus the interest on that debt. Two years, and you’re cutting out social programs just to service the debt. Four years, and you’re drowning in debt.

The choice is difficult, but real - If Greece tomorrow tore up all the debt, they’d still be in heaps of economic trouble, as they’re adding to their deficit in huge numbers each and every day. All that would happen with debt forgiveness is the need for it to be repeated over and over again.


9 posted on 10/03/2011 7:17:02 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: the invisib1e hand

That would be Greece on the Left.

10 posted on 10/03/2011 7:18:36 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The USSR spent itself into bankruptcy and collapsed -- and aren't we on the same path now?)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

If we don’t clean house (White and otherwise) we will be here very very soon.

We ran out of fun money a long time ago. Will we learn this lesson? Sad to think that this is people’s lives going down the toilet.


11 posted on 10/03/2011 7:19:56 PM PDT by King_Corey (www.kingcorey.com -- Twitter @KingCorey_Com)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi
I remember discussing this with a friend a couple years ago saying Greece would fall into a death spiral (we can call it "Charybdis" to sound more classical) and that we'd follow. The problem is that people will not acknowledge the depth of the problem and will support no serious action to fix the debt. Eventually the economy tanks (I mean really tanks!), and the dying economy makes the problem worse. When Greece falls and then other European countries fall, it'll push us over the brink and we'll tear down Asia.

On the bright side, once we hit bottom, there is no where to go but up. Until then, work on your foraging, gardening, and home defense skills.

12 posted on 10/03/2011 7:19:56 PM PDT by ElectronVolt
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

let’s put’em to work!

/s


13 posted on 10/03/2011 7:22:50 PM PDT by ken21 (ruling class dem + rino progressives -- destroying america for 150 years.)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

I hear they haven’t fired a single government employee.... when do they try “austerity”??


14 posted on 10/03/2011 7:25:05 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Happiness)
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To: kingu
If Greece tomorrow tore up all the debt, they’d still be in heaps of economic trouble, as they’re adding to their deficit in huge numbers each and every day. All that would happen with debt forgiveness is the need for it to be repeated over and over again.

Precisely. I have been trying to explain that to some people. It is mathematically impossible to bail out Greece as long as spending exceeds real and potential revenue. And it is a guarantee that isn't going to change.

15 posted on 10/03/2011 7:26:20 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ( If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi
Coming to America soon. We are on the edge. When do we step off, next stimulus package?
16 posted on 10/03/2011 7:27:07 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (EVERY knee shall bow and EVERY mouth shall say: Jesus Christ IS LORD!!!!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Nice.


17 posted on 10/03/2011 7:28:13 PM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com/)
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To: ElectronVolt

Try this on ‘em:

Total US+European debt is $23,000 per person. Each individual did not agree to the debt, and gets nothing for it...but your name is on the bill, due process is over, and the repo man is coming. What to do? Ink or lead?


18 posted on 10/03/2011 7:31:52 PM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com/)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi
I think the IMF and ECB now only have once choice: write off around 40-50% of the Greek sovereign debt and immediately start a four to six month process to get Greece out of the Eurozone, including time to have Greece go back on the drachma as their own currency. That country was already in poor financial shape to start with before entering the Eurozone, and getting out will allow the ECB and IMF to concentrate on saving Spain and Italy, two countries that under the right reform can produce their way out of their debt problems.
19 posted on 10/03/2011 7:34:16 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: ClearCase_guy

And Germany on the right.


20 posted on 10/03/2011 7:35:08 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

Their only trap is of their own making. They could recover tomorrow...but they would have to throw off all the Socialist crap. The first step would be to simply outlaw trade unions...that would get them 10% more GNP overnight (since strikers would just get fired).

And one can continue from there with changing laws in probably every segment of society.

It’s their choice...but it is a choice.


21 posted on 10/03/2011 7:35:43 PM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

We’re doing the same, spending nearly $2 for every $1 revenue ... times one and a half trillion. We’d have to cut spending in half just to stop the bleeding, and then the remaining by half to pay off the debt in 30 years. Increasing GDP isn’t enough.


22 posted on 10/03/2011 7:35:58 PM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com/)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi; Kartographer
“Greek Default Will Trigger an Immediate Magnitude 10 Earthquake”

If someone knows the truth, it is the guy at the top of UniCredit [Szalay-Berzeviczy], which we expect to promptly trade limit down once we hit print. Among the stunning allegations (stunning in that an actual banker dares to tell the truth) are the following:

“The euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default”… “The euro is beyond rescue”… “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”….”A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe.“…”Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.”

In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse…

23 posted on 10/03/2011 7:38:28 PM PDT by blam
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

It should be clear to all that the world’s economy is on life support and the doctors are all ‘quacks’! Sooner or latter are the spinning plates are going to start to tumble and there is going to be on hell of a mess!

What kind of a mess you ask, well I think that we are in for something like the collapse of Argentina ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yerKMQc7-w&feature=grec_index )but on a global scale. Additionally I think we will see a much more violent version. As recent events show (Flash Mobs, UK riots, etc)we have a larger entitlement minded population and a the US has a much more violent and armed population than Argentina. I see many many small business wiped out by flash mob looting, and see rape, robbery and murder for murder sake. Many of these ‘yutes’ will think no more about killing you than most people think about stepping on a roach. That will be the test of many. Most preppers I know are Christian people and they will hesitate to do what they might have to do to stop the ‘yutes’. On the other hand the ‘yutes’ won’t think twice nor lose a minute of sleep, in fact they will smile and laugh about it.

Think of this quote which is one of my favorites:

“Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: The Siege of AR-558 (#7.8)” (1998)
Quark: Let me tell you something about Hew-mons, Nephew. They’re a wonderful, friendly people, as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers, put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time and those same friendly, intelligent, wonderful people... will become as nasty and as violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon. You don’t believe me? Look at those faces. Look in their eyes.

Now go look at some of the videos of the riots in the UK and of some of the flash mobs here in the US and look into there eyes.

For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:

http://www.tomeaker.com/kart/preparedness1i.pdf

For those of you who haven’t started already it’s time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.

As the LDS say “When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.”

Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3

Lastly this for the doubters and the scoffers.

“There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger.

Underestimation can be fatal.”


24 posted on 10/03/2011 7:48:41 PM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: appalachian_dweller; OldPossum; DuncanWaring; VirginiaMom; CodeToad; goosie; kalee; ...

PING!!


25 posted on 10/03/2011 7:50:27 PM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: BobL
I think they are past the point of choice.

With tax revenues shrinking as the economy shrivels, debt is likely to rise to an eye-watering 173 percent of GDP in 2012 from 162 percent this year. To illustrate the speed of the deterioration, the IMF based its May 2010 bailout of Greece on forecasts that gross debt would peak in 2012 at 149 percent of GDP.

Even an objective dispassionate person can't figure out what choices need to be made. Do they put all people drawing a government check at poverty level? 80% of poverty level? Cut off all people who can work more than four hours a day? Tax earners 20%? 40%? 60%? There's no way to tell because economic models don't work when conditions are so sensitive to bond holder sentiment.

They are going to have to default and let things ride. It will be every family for itself and those without family will go.
26 posted on 10/03/2011 7:53:16 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
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To: mylife
Most Asian Markets Are In The Red As The Global Selloff Continues
27 posted on 10/03/2011 7:58:18 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Things look ugly out there.


28 posted on 10/03/2011 8:04:08 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: ElectronVolt
Charybdis
29 posted on 10/03/2011 8:08:40 PM PDT by blam
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

“They are going to have to default and let things ride. It will be every family for itself and those without family will go. “

I agree that they will default...but I’m not as sure that they MUST default. But it doesn’t matter - they cannot change. And yes, it will be an interesting case-study to see what happens after they default.


30 posted on 10/03/2011 8:10:17 PM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

Behold the consequences of SOCIALISM...

As Welfare State Collapses, Greeks Suffer and Fear Future: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/25/world/europe/as-welfare-state-collapses-greeks-suffer-and-fear-future.html?pagewanted=all

Thatcher was 100% right. In the end, you run out of other people’s money.


31 posted on 10/03/2011 8:12:20 PM PDT by TruthHound ("He who does not punish evil commands it to be done." --Leonardo da Vinci)
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To: ClearCase_guy

I remember when Glenn Beck said that Greece would be the first domino to tip.


32 posted on 10/03/2011 8:12:20 PM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

They’ve mortgaged their lives for womb to tomb govt. assistance, and wound up with neither. Good going, Greek Lefties.


33 posted on 10/03/2011 8:22:34 PM PDT by Post Toasties (Leftists give insanity a bad name.)
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To: ctdonath2

I can afford $23,000, barely. In return, I would insist that I never pay another Federal tax again in my life.


34 posted on 10/03/2011 8:25:58 PM PDT by Post Toasties (Leftists give insanity a bad name.)
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To: ctdonath2
Here's a rhetorical question: Why are those who conceived, designed and executed such a perfect system of enslavement not accorded any recognition of their genius?

I mean, one would think that amongst those, including yourself, who understand what has occurred, that some acknowledgement, if only grudging respect, might be granted.

So many appear to believe that we somehow just stumbled towards our collective debasement. However, the practice of usury and the inevitable outcome of exponents has a very long history. What is happening today has already occurred countless times throughout the ages.

So who pushed us forward into the trap? What powers did they possess to ensure certain legislation? Why did Wilson sign the Fed act? Why did FDR allow Ts to be used as assets to back the dollar? Who foresaw the effect of attaching the income tax (on those both living and yet to born) to bond guarantees?

I would think the objective of any adequate preparation is not only to survive the coming CWII, but to make sure the culprits who murdered this country are apprehended before they make good their escape.

35 posted on 10/03/2011 8:42:14 PM PDT by semantic
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

Greece didn’t have to print any money, they borrowed it from the EU at firesale short term interest rates. Greece produces absolutely nothing that is worth selling, leasing or paying any kind of currency for in any way, but that doesn’t stop the government from handing out other people’s Euros hand over fist.

The Greeks think their heritage requires them to eat, drink, dance and screw, and little else. The entire country lives with their hand out and there isn’t anyone of note who is producing anything of value in Greece (with the exception of Ouzo...). The Greeks cannot even do a proper job of restoring their own ancient ruins, and in truth the best thing for the whole country would be another major eruption of Santorini, wipe the slate completely clean, and start over again.

That is all.


36 posted on 10/03/2011 8:47:59 PM PDT by Bean Counter (Obama got mostly Ds and Fs all through college and law school. Keep repeating it.....)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

It’s a southern European tourist trap with ethnic appeal to some, for cryin’ out loud. Let it go.

Listen to George Washington, our greatest president.

“Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humor or caprice?”

“Nothing is more essential, than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular Nations, and passionate attachments for others, should be excluded...The Nation, which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest.”


37 posted on 10/03/2011 8:51:43 PM PDT by familyop ("Don't worry, they'll row for a month before they figure out I'm fakin' it." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: Post Toasties

Oh, but that would mean getting something in return. Not in this case, you get nothing, not even assurance it’s over.


38 posted on 10/04/2011 3:32:44 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com/)
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To: Kartographer

I liked your post.

Anecdotally many times over the last ten or so years I have overheard people talking about how if things go into the ‘crapper’ they are going to take care of that SOB and he’ll never _________ again.

In many ways if it wasn’t for the fear of being caught and being punished this whole society would collapse into anarchy. Which brings up a major sore point with me. Holder’s “people” are losing or in some cases have lost that fear of punishment. They are acting on their basest desires and impulses. Imagine what will happen if that becomes a reality for everyone who doesn’t have a conscience that tells them “THAT’S WRONG, DON’T Do IT!”

I’m afraid that bad times are coming, and quickly too.


39 posted on 10/04/2011 5:22:51 AM PDT by The Working Man (The mantra for BO's reign...."No Child Left a Dime")
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To: The Working Man

Very bad times are coming in the shape of a world war. When things go south, governments resort to war.


40 posted on 10/04/2011 6:39:56 AM PDT by bgill (There, happy now?)
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