Posted on 10/19/2011 7:12:16 PM PDT by neverdem
War with China?
Illusions about the pacifying effects of trade go back more than a century.
‘The two economies [the United States and China] are linked with each other and with the rest of the world in a manner unparalleled in history. This mutual dependence can be an immensely powerful deterrent, in effect a form of mutually assured economic destruction.” So concluded the RAND Corporation in a study released last week.
A hundred years ago Norman Angell came to precisely the same conclusion. In his 1910 book The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage, Angell outlined a world where the profitable pursuit of war is impossible because of the interdependence of national economies and the means of modern quick communications. Therefore, war had become “economically and socially futile.” Angell’s book was a tremendous bestseller and fed a widespread turn-of-the-century belief that growing world trade — it was the first era of globalization — would clearly lead to a hundred-year extension of the Pax Britannica.
Angell’s utopian dream of universal peace through greater economic integration took hold in both Britain and the United States, despite the obvious evidence that the world was becoming progressively more dangerous. Growing global tensions were a result of the diplomatic failure of the established powers to make room at the table for two burgeoning new powers — Germany and Japan — that were pushing themselves onto the global stage. Japan, for instance, announced its arrival as a world power by annihilating the Russian navy. In fact it did so a few years before Mr. Angell published The Great Illusion. Germany, in an eerie similarity to what we are witnessing with the rapid growth of the Chinese navy, challenged the continuance of the general peace at the beginning of the 20th century by driving forward with a naval program aimed at contesting Britain’s command of the seas, something Britain naturally viewed as a mortal threat.
In the end, Angell’s theory of “peace through economic integration” was exploded by Europe’s first suicide attempt in 1914. Still, utopian hopes and myths die hard. The dramatic evidence provided by the millions killed in World War I that Angell’s theory was a complete and utter failure did not stop him from releasing a new version of The Great Illusion in 1933, just in time for Hitler’s rise. Another version was published in 1938, on the very eve of World War II. Despite Angell’s unbelievably bad timing and the vacuity of his theories on political economy, he was still awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1933, primarily because of The Great Illusion.
RAND’s study concludes: “We do not believe a China–U.S. military conflict to be probable.” Possibly cognizant of how economic integration has disastrously failed to stop previous conflicts, RAND qualifies its belief in a lasting peace built on overlapping economic interests by stating that its view is based on the judgment that the “United States will retain the capacity to deter behavior that could lead to a clash.” In other words, shared economic interests will guarantee the peace just as long as they are backed up by America’s overwhelming military might.
Granted, a war with China does not appear on the immediate horizon. Unfortunately, there are too many possible flashpoints for the United States to become complacent. A nuclear-armed North Korea could collapse, or it could lash out so as to create a regional apocalypse before its final demise. Either event would draw both the United States and China into an unpredictable dynamic in which having a powerful American military force on hand remains the best guarantee of keeping or rebuilding the peace. Moreover, despite decades of walking a diplomatic tightrope, the Taiwan situation remains unstable and dangerous, as do increasing Sino-Japanese tensions over resource rights, increased military activity in the South China Sea, and a growing strategic rivalry with India.
The rise of new powers always leads to a dangerous time in international politics. It does not necessarily have to lead to violence. For instance, the dominant power of the 19th century, Britain, was able to make room for America’s post–Civil War expansion without a major shooting war between the two. Still, throughout this time Britain maintained an unrivaled military supremacy.
With a little luck and a lot of skill, Chinese and American diplomats will peacefully navigate the predictably treacherous waters ahead. In doing so, however, we must avoid putting too much faith in the chimera of an enduring peace built solely on ever greater economic integration. Economic contacts will, in time, help build the common bonds of trust that will allow disputes to be handled peacefully. In the meantime, it is worth remembering that the Pax Americana was not kept for five decades through our economic integration with the Soviets. It was kept by maintaining a powerful military that forced the Soviets to take a long contemplative pause before engaging in any military action.
— Jim Lacey is professor of strategic studies at the Marine Corps War College. He is the author of the recently released The First Clash and Keep from All Thoughtful Men. The opinions in this article are entirely his own and do not represent those of the Department of Defense or any of its members.
The exercise involves about 3,000 Russian and Chinese servicemen, nearly 300 units of army military equipment and over 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Photo: BMP-86A infantry fighting vehicles of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China.
http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20090724/155604547.html
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[2009] Russia, China plan new joint military exercises
By MARTIN SIEFF, UPI Senior News Analyst
Published: March 26, 2009
WASHINGTON, March 26 (UPI) -- The continuing tensions over Russia's refusal to sell its state-of-the-art land warfare advanced weapons systems to China hasn't interrupted the rhythm of major joint military exercises between the two major land powers on the Eurasian landmass. The latest in the regular, biennial series of exercises between the two nations has been confirmed for this summer.
The next in the now well-established series of exercises called Peace Mission 2009 will be carried out in northeastern China, the Russian Defense Ministry announced March 18, according to a report carried by the RIA Novosti news agency.
The first bilateral Peace Mission maneuvers -- described at the time as counter-terrorism exercises -- were held in Russia and the eastern Chinese province of Shandong in August 2005. As we reported at that time, they were a lot bigger than mere counter-terrorism exercises. Warships, squadrons of combat aircraft and more than 10,000 troops were involved carrying out landings against hypothetically hostile shores. The maneuvers also involved large-scale paratroops drops. The scale and nature of those exercises suggested a trial run for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan with Russian support. ..."
http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2009/03/26/Russia_China_plan_new_joint_military_exercises/UPI-25021238094858/
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Russia, China flex muscles in joint war games
August 17, 2007
CHEBARKUL, Russia (Reuters) - Russia and China staged their biggest joint exercises on Friday but denied this show of military prowess could lead to the formation of a counterweight to NATO.
"Today's exercises are another step towards strengthening the relations between our countries, a step towards strengthening international peace and security, and first and foremost, the security of our peoples," Putin said.
Fighter jets swooped overhead, commandos jumped from helicopters on to rooftops and the boom of artillery shells shook the firing range in Russia's Ural mountains as two of the largest armies in the world were put through their paces.
The exercises take place against a backdrop of mounting rivalry between the West, and Russia and China for influence over Central Asia, a strategic region that has huge oil, gas and mineral resources.
Russia's growing assertiveness is also causing jitters in the West. Putin announced at the firing range that Russia was resuming Soviet-era sorties by its strategic bomber aircraft near NATO airspace.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-29030120070817?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
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War Games: Russia, China Grow Alliance
September 23, 2005
In foreign policy it’s critical to “know thine enemy.” So American policymakers should be aware that Russia and China are inching closer to identifying a common enemy — the United States.
The two would-be superpowers held unprecedented joint military exercises Aug. 18-25. Soothingly named “Peace Mission 2005,” the drills took place on the Shandong peninsula on the Yellow Sea, and included nearly 10,000 troops. Russian long-range bombers, the army, navy, air force, marine, airborne and logistics units from both countries were also involved.
Moscow and Beijing claim the maneuvers were aimed at combating terrorism, extremism and separatism (the last a veiled reference to Taiwan), but it’s clear they were an attempt to counter-balance American military might.
Joint war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty signed in 2001, and reflect the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two Eastern Hemisphere giants."
Thanks neverdem.
U.S. Solar Panel Makers Say China Violated Trade Rules (What rules?)
ny times | 10/19/2011 | keith bradsher
Posted on 10/19/2011 7:06:53 PM PDT by tobyhill
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2795303/posts
Competitive Trade is just another form of war.
Like strategic terrorism is another form of war.
Like pushing drugs into our country is another form of warfare.
Like sick popular music, movies, TV, etc. Is another for of warfare.
Like pushing Illegal immigrants up across the border is another form of war.
Think of Castro's 125,000 Marielitos pushed into Miami in 2 weeks.
We are at war with China now!
“Free” trade is the Nuke of Economic Warfare.
When Nixon went to China, William Buckley went along and noticed that everyone went around smiling all day.
What the Chinese people think about doing business is of no account to Peking who massacred the 60 million of their citizens who failed to smile all day..
Remember what happened to the Dodo birds that couldn't figure out that those sailors with clubs were their enemies.
They had lived in peace on their remote island so long they had lost their fear. Extinction came quickly.
Even Jim Lacey that wrote this article says,”With a little luck and a lot of skill, Chinese and American diplomats will peacefully navigate the predictably treacherous waters ahead.”
To the contrary, China is pursuing hegemony!
Backed by what will soon be the greatest military on earth, China is buying us.
Ol’ Scratch likes to mess round that kind o thinking.
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