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New Polls Show Romney Ahead in First Four States
NationalJournal ^ | 10-26-2011 | Steven Shepard

Posted on 10/26/2011 1:43:43 PM PDT by bimboeruption

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in new CNN/Time polls of the first four states on the Republican presidential nominating calendar -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida -- though in Iowa and South Carolina, Herman Cain runs a close second.

Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, runs second in each of the four states, and in three of the four states, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, runs third.

Notably, the best that Texas Gov. Rick Perry can manage in any of the states is a tie for third.

Taken collectively, the polls show that -- despite Cain's slight lead over Romney in some recent national polling -- Romney has the advantage in the four states that will most determine the direction of the GOP nominating process:

-- In Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on Jan. 3, Romney leads Cain, 24 percent to 21 percent -- within the margin of error. Paul was third, at 12 percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Perry, who both earned 10 percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who edged Paul in August's Iowa straw poll, was at only six percent.

-- New Hampshire is expected to hold its first-in-the-nation primary on Jan. 10, and Romney has a strong lead in the poll, at 40 percent. Cain is at 13 percent, with Paul right behind him at 12 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, whose campaign is predicated on a strong performance in the Granite State, is fourth at six percent, followed closely by Gingrich, at five percent. Perry is at just four percent.

-- The first-in-the-South primary will be held in South Carolina on Jan. 21, where Romney (25 percent) and Cain (23 percent) are now in a virtual tie. Paul is third at 12 percent, and Perry is at 11 percent, his strongest performance in the four polls.

-- Romney leads Cain in vote-rich Florida, which will hold its primary on Jan. 31, 30 percent to 18 percent. Gingrich and Perry tied for third with nine percent, and Paul was fifth at six percent.

All four polls were conducted Oct. 20-25 by ORC International. The respective sample sizes and margins of error are as follows:

-- Iowa: 405 registered Republicans; margin of error +/- 4.8 percent. -- New Hampshire: 400 registered Republicans or independents who voted in the 2008 Republican primary; margin of error +/- 4.9 percent. -- South Carolina: 400 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; margin of error +/- 4.9 percent. -- Florida: 401 registered Republicans; margin of error +/- 4.9 percent.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; cain; fakepolls; fauxpolls; hermancain; iowa; paidpolls4milt; perry; polls; romney; sauce4milt
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Message to the Plaid Pants Wing of the GOP:

If you want Obama reelected, make Romney the candidate.

1 posted on 10/26/2011 1:43:50 PM PDT by bimboeruption
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To: bimboeruption

CNN/Time poll? That has real credibility (sarc).


2 posted on 10/26/2011 1:48:53 PM PDT by SailormanCGA72
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To: bimboeruption

Romney is the best alternative to the liberals, the libs want Obamacare which is the child of Romneycare, so go with the author Romney.

They will stop at nothing to destroy Cain.


3 posted on 10/26/2011 1:52:34 PM PDT by Fred (no job no house no gas no food no problem Obama 2012)
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To: bimboeruption

Too bad I have to wait till March to vote against Romney. It will all over but the crying that point.


4 posted on 10/26/2011 1:53:08 PM PDT by Sybeck1 (My opinion doesn't really matter until March 13th anyway.)
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To: SailormanCGA72

Sweet how the libs and RINOs unite to shove these big government, hands-across-the aisle, elitist, career politicians down our throats.


5 posted on 10/26/2011 1:56:26 PM PDT by bimboeruption (Clinging to my Bible and my HK.)
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To: SailormanCGA72
CNN/Time poll? That has real credibility (sarc).


Trying to fool us again!

NO SALE!

6 posted on 10/26/2011 1:57:12 PM PDT by onyx (You're here on FR, so support it! Compiling New Sarah Ping List. Let me know if you want on it.)
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To: bimboeruption

There are 57 states ... its still too early to call it. < /sarc >


7 posted on 10/26/2011 2:00:33 PM PDT by dartuser ("If you are ... what you were ... then you're not.")
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To: SailormanCGA72
What the FReep is a CNN/Time poll? (SARC)
8 posted on 10/26/2011 2:01:22 PM PDT by goodtomato (I'm really, really blessed! WWW.MIKEMcCALISTERFORSENATE.COM check him out!)
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To: Sybeck1; upchuck; seekthetruth

Keep the faith. Our Southern states of South Carolina and Florida shouldn’t go to Romney, unless the great Senator JimDeMint (SC) goes temporarily stupid and endorses him again.


9 posted on 10/26/2011 2:01:41 PM PDT by onyx (You're here on FR, so support it! Compiling New Sarah Ping List. Let me know if you want on it.)
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To: bimboeruption

I would expect Romney to take New Hampshire. It in New england and he was governor of Massachusetts. Also, New Hampshire allows cross-over votes.

As for the other three states, time will tell, but I don;t have too much confidence in CNN. They WANT Romney nominated. He’s vulnerable on so many points.

It would be REAL NICE if the conservative GOP candidates like Bachmann and Ron Paul and Gingrich PULLED OUT and endorsed the leading conservative candidate - Herman Cain. If not, there is a real chance that once again, cross-over Democrats and too many conservative candidates, will place another looser RINO in the GOP Nominee chair.

And THAT would be a catatrophy ON MANY points.


10 posted on 10/26/2011 2:01:46 PM PDT by ZULU (ANYBODY BUT ROMNEY)
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To: SailormanCGA72

CNN/Time=


11 posted on 10/26/2011 2:01:48 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: onyx

Unless it shows Cain in the lead! Then it’s highly accurate!


12 posted on 10/26/2011 2:01:56 PM PDT by magritte
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To: All

I have been tracking these polls closely...

This is the first poll I’ve seen in awhile that has Romney winning in Iowa and South Carolina.

Every poll I’ve looked at recently has Cain up big in Iowa in SCarolina.

That’s because most polls use Republican RVs or Republican Likely Voters....this poll uses GOP AND GOP leaning Independents...

A very inaccurate way to poll. They are already only using 400 Respondents which gives you a high 4.8% margin of error...and then they skew it with Independents.

Ignore it.


13 posted on 10/26/2011 2:02:28 PM PDT by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: magritte

Get a life, fool or is it troll?

I’m not wedded to any of our canidates. My choice didn’t run.

cnn/time are in the tank for a Romney/obama match.

Sure loser for our side.


14 posted on 10/26/2011 2:05:10 PM PDT by onyx (You're here on FR, so support it! Compiling New Sarah Ping List. Let me know if you want on it.)
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To: bimboeruption
Geez, first McCain. Now we're probably going to get stuck with Romney. Unless Obama becomes dictator before then. He is sure trying his hardest.
15 posted on 10/26/2011 2:07:23 PM PDT by mtg
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To: bimboeruption

I’d like to tell any Mittens Staffers forced to lurk here for news that even if your boss wins the nomination, it will be a cold day in Cowboy Hell before I vote for him. I’ll sit it out and just wait here in the North Georgia Mountains for Armageddon. I’ve been busy stockin’ up.


16 posted on 10/26/2011 2:07:35 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: bimboeruption

Oh horse whackies! This must be one of those hope and wish polls.


17 posted on 10/26/2011 2:08:44 PM PDT by pallis
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To: bimboeruption

Considering the source and the limited info on methodology and the obvious bent of the media to push Romney, I’m not going into a panic.

But this does indicate to me that the media is going to do its full court press to get Romney the spot. This is going to be McLame redux unless we rise up and stop it somehow.

I despise the Romney wing of the GOP as much as the Democrats. It is so frustrating to be repeatedly cheated by both of them.


18 posted on 10/26/2011 2:14:37 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ( If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: bimboeruption

It’s time for the Anita supporters around here to dump their slug of a candidate and rally behind Herman before Mitt gets the nomination.


19 posted on 10/26/2011 2:14:44 PM PDT by NoMitt
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To: onyx

You are right, it is a Perry Trollie.


20 posted on 10/26/2011 2:15:48 PM PDT by samantha (Sarah is our TEAple. leader for America the Beautiful...)
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