Something Strange: The Economy Is Behaving Badly In The Least Expected Way

TBI ^ | 4-3-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

Something Strange: The Economy Is Behaving Badly In The Least Expected Way

Joe Weisenthal
April 3, 2012, 8:56 PM

Looking back over the latest few weeks of economy data, something stands out: Things are playing out almost 100% different than what people expected.

Think back to mid-to-late February. There were two competing trends. Housing appeared to be creaking back to life, construction was generally jumping, and car sales were surging month after month. Basically, all the "big" animal spirits stuff seemed to be happening.

But there was a counter-force in the form of gasoline prices. They were surging, and the big fear is that just as things were creaking back to life, gasoline prices would come in and slug the consumer.

As we pointed out, the fact that there was a duel between the big stuff (cars and houses on one side) and the day-to-day stuff (gasoline prices threatening the consumer) is what made the current environment very different form 2007-2008, the last time the economy went into recession.

We thought we'd be watching closely the high-frequency indicators, like same-store sales numbers and initial claims to get the first signs of problems, but that hasn't been how things have developed at all.

The weekly retail data has been great. Today's number was one of the best in a year. We had a few dicey weeks right when the gas surged, but everything's hunky dory on this front.

On the other hand, the big stuff has been not good.

Every single piece of recent housing data has been a miss.

And then today, it came out that the March auto sales numbers dipped sharply from February.

Also, construction numbers beyond housing have been poor.

So basically, the high-frequency consumer stuff has been fine, and the big money,

(snip)

[cuban leaf]

Hey, the movie industry exploded during the depression. Everybody had a nickel...

Also, credit drove the big stuff. If there was no such thing as credit, how many motorcycles, snowmobiles, boats and motorhomes (not to mention “expensive” cars) would be sold?

If people can’t get credit, and there is no money in saving, they just blow their money on little stuff. I suppose restaurants are booming. I’ll have to check.

[cuban leaf]

Hamburger over $3 a pound? No inflation? HAHAHAHAHAHA!

It’s all about hedonics. Watch and learn:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPkTItOXuN0

[jdsteel]

Well done. Thanks for saving me the effort!

[blam]

"Hamburger over $3 a pound? No inflation? HAHAHAHAHAHA! "

I paid $4.38 a pound for lean ground hamburger Monday night at Wal-Mart. The same a couple years ago was $2.78.

[Graewoulf]

Republican Candidates could improve their Primary vote count by campaigning with the following idea:

Due to the FHA, Fannie and Freddie Bankruptcies of September, 2008, American home owners lost 30 % of the value of their homes. That is a 30 % cut in just one month. Home values are still down 30 %.

Thus, let us cut the total compensation to all elected Federal politicians, and their staffs by 30 %, and an additional 10 % cut to elected Federal politicians each year until Federal Spending is LESS THAN the average of the previous 2 years of Federal income.

BTW, since slightly less than half of the US House, and 2/3 of the US Senate are Millionaires, it will be a great opportunity for Congress to lead by example that EVERYONE should give up their “fair” share of the American Dream.

What better way can there be to demonstrate that Federal politicians are on the same page as the voters?

[cynwoody]

It's in the SECOND table (Revenue by Source). They're down -15.27% Year-To-Date in Federal Income Tax collection over last fiscal year.

That's Texas's revenue from the federal government. Federal aid, in other words.

[kiryandil]

Thanks! That was unclear to me.

[Right Wing Assault]

When I was a kid, regular size was 16 oz for a bag of chips. Now they’re down to 10.

I notice recently event he facial tissues are smaller. My wife get Puffs. The sheets are about 1/2” or more shorter on each side.

[Deagle]

Actually, I think you are right on! I do believe that the Federal Government is looking for ways to reduce costs for retirement. Expansion of the dollar and inflation is the easiest way it seems.

[kearnyirish2]

The inflation helps the government as long as it isn’t factored into those payments; it is supposed to be, but by constantly understating inflation the gov’t. is short-changing all of those people.