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Where’s the ‘Probable Cause’?
national review ^ | 4-13-12 | John Lott

Posted on 04/13/2012 7:05:10 PM PDT by doug from upland

The charges brought against George Zimmerman sure look like prosecutorial misconduct. The case as put forward by the prosecutor in the “affidavit of probable cause” is startlingly weak. As a former chief economist at the U.S. Sentencing Commission, I have read a number of such affidavits, and cannot recall one lacking so much relevant information. The prosecutor has most likely deliberately overcharged, hoping to intimidate Zimmerman into agreeing to a plea bargain. If this case goes to trial, Zimmerman will almost definitely be found “not guilty” on the charge of second-degree murder.

The prosecutor wasn’t required to go to the grand jury for the indictment, but the fact that she didn’t in such a high-profile case is troubling. Everyone knows how easy it is for a prosecutor to get a grand jury to indict, because only the prosecutor presents evidence. A grand-jury indictment would have provided political cover; that charges were brought without one means that the prosecutor was worried that a grand jury would not give her the indictment.

Advertisement The affidavit consists of six main points:

● Zimmerman was upset about all “the break-ins in his neighborhood” and expressed anger at how criminals “always get away.”

● According to a discussion with Trayvon Martin’s girlfriend, who said that she was talking to Martin before the attack, Zimmerman followed Martin. He did so despite the police operator’s saying “we don’t need you to do that.”

● Zimmerman “confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” though no evidence is cited on this point.

● Trayvon Martin’s mother identified the voice crying for help on a 9-1-1 call as her son’s.

● Zimmerman shot Martin in the chest, and this is confirmed by both Zimmerman’s statement and ballistics tests.

● Martin died from the gunshot wound.

Note some of the points that are missing. The prosecution doesn’t claim Zimmerman had racial animus against blacks. There was no “f***ing coons” on the police call. Some extremely relevant information from the police report is completely excluded: There is no mention of the grass and wetness found on the back of Zimmerman’s shirt, the gashes on the back of his head, the bloody nose, or the other witnesses who saw Martin on top of Zimmerman, beating him, before the shot was fired. There is not even an attempt to say that the police report was in error; instead the affidavit just disregards it.

Even if everything in the affidavit is correct, it does not even begin to deal with the most crucial question: Who attacked whom? Even if it is true that “Zimmerman confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” there may have been no wrongdoing on Zimmerman’s part. “Confronted” does not mean “provoked” or “assaulted.” It could simply mean that Zimmerman followed Martin and asked him what he was doing in the neighborhood. Surely Zimmerman had the right to investigate a strange person in his neighborhood. The police operator’s advice that “we don’t need you to do that” was merely suggestive, not an order to stop. Indeed, the police had no authority to give Zimmerman such an order.

Now take the charge of “second degree” murder. There is no way that the affidavit justifies such a charge. In Florida, second-degree murder is defined as “the unlawful killing of a human being, when perpetrated by any act imminently dangerous to another and evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life, although without any premeditated design to effect the death of any particular individual.” But if Zimmerman was being beaten, there was no “depraved mind regardless of human life,” and the act “imminently dangerous to another” would be justified as self-defense.

Angela Corey, the special prosecutor who filed charges, claimed multiple times on Wednesday that the prosecutors “are seekers of the truth.” In our legal system, grand juries can sometimes provide a check on prosecutors who indict based on political pressure or the desire to seek the limelight. It is no surprise that Corey avoided the grand jury.

— John R. Lott Jr. is a FoxNews.com contributor and a co-author of the just-released Debacle: Obama’s War on Jobs and Growth and What We Can Do Now to Regain Our Future (John Wiley & Sons, March 2012).


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: blackkk; florida; georgezimmerman; johnlott; lott; marktwain; trayvon; trayvonmartin; z911calltranscript; zimmerman; zimmermancharged
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To: moehoward
I had wondered if GZ did take the route in pink, and came upon Martin, around F.

It makes perfect sense if Trayvon also took the pink route... not saying that's what happened, but it would account for the altercation happening at "F" as Z was returning to his truck. Z's actual statements (as opposed to the hearsay interviews given by his family) should all come out in the trial, if things get that far.

181 posted on 04/14/2012 3:25:19 PM PDT by Aunt Polgara
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To: samtheman; TigersEye; doug from upland
This is High Communism in action, with the full pressure of a Thugocracy in the White House backed up by the threat of large numbers of anonymous murders roaming the streets seeking revenge. No jury will acquit this man.

We'll find out about the last part, but I agree, this is thug law and a thug regime, and yes, they are acting exactly like Communists seeking to prove to the world that |Party > People| and also |Party > State > Individual|, so that there is no situation in which the interests of the Party will fail to prevail over the rights of the person.

It's a direct repudiation and refutation (they hope) of the entire history of U.S. law and the Constitution's guarantees of life and liberty.

I think that is, at base, why Obama has been engaging the Supreme Court directly and trying to bully them, from his SOTU lie-challenge last year right up to this moment.

The Regime's animating actors really, truly are reconstituted and "de-named" Communists in action.

182 posted on 04/14/2012 3:33:27 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus
100% agreed! 0baMao is a consummate "community organizer" (AKA "street agitator") and he has adapted those skills to the national politics level. He plants seeds (criticize SCOTUS in SOTU speech) lets others water them (Pelosi, Reid et al) encourages street level agitators to cultivate his plantings (Sharpton, NBPP etc.) and directs his minions to harvest the fruit. (Holder and the DoJ)

He is working on dominating every facet of government and society.

His Wookie plants seeds about following social controls. (dietary restrictions, "food deserts") There is no force of law in what she says but her words are conditioning the populace to be obedient to "Federal guidelines." Of course guidelines have a way of morphing into regulations which do have the force of law.

183 posted on 04/14/2012 3:46:31 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: TigersEye
As it says above at the end Tracy Martin himself hasn't told the press that.

Yes, he has.

Tracy Martin Interview


184 posted on 04/14/2012 3:52:31 PM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: Alice in Wonderland
I stand corrected. I misread the article which actually does attribute the quotes to Tracy Martin. It's still third-hand info and makes no sense when juxtaposed with known facts.

Hey, nice picture of Trayvon when he was 12. LOL Nothing like some good propaganda to go with your post.

185 posted on 04/14/2012 4:02:08 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Aunt Polgara

I question everything George’s father said. I wasn’t there and neither was he. He was trying to retell the story George told him ... and did so in a confusing manner.

Many people here look at this as right vs left.

A few look at it as right vs wrong. I’m one of those. I believe George was wrong when he turned ‘neighborhood watch’ into ‘neighborhood follow’.


186 posted on 04/14/2012 4:04:45 PM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: Alice in Wonderland; Aunt Polgara

Now that you’re back you can answer Aunt Polgara’s question in post #173.


187 posted on 04/14/2012 4:05:13 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Many people here look at this as right vs left.

Not me. It's about facts vs speculation.

188 posted on 04/14/2012 4:06:10 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: TigersEye

If Tracy Martin’s info is third-hand, wouldn’t Robert Zimmerman’s info be at least second-hand?

The date on the photo is 2009 ... Trayvon would have been 15. I wonder if he was in the AFJROTC.


189 posted on 04/14/2012 4:12:35 PM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: Aunt Polgara

If Treyvon took that route too, then any notion of fear has to be dismissed. It would seem had he gone through there, he’d have turned right to go towards “home”, not turn left to circle back towards the ‘weird guy’ watching him. Also he was relatively new to the area. Zimmerman would be more likely to know he could cut through there and maybe get a fix on Martin again.

Alternatively, if George had done as he says and followed the maps direct route from C to E, then Treyvon jumping him on his way back to C, there’d be a lot of backpedaling and dancing away from Martin to get to F.


190 posted on 04/14/2012 4:13:31 PM PDT by moehoward
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To: Alice in Wonderland
If Tracy Martin’s info is third-hand, wouldn’t Robert Zimmerman’s info be at least second-hand?

Yes. Have I ever said otherwise?

The date on the photo is 2009 ... Trayvon would have been 15.

Nice propaganda. Two year old photo of a much smaller kid.

I wonder if he was in the AFJROTC.

Is that your unsubstantiated speculation?

191 posted on 04/14/2012 4:15:41 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: TigersEye

Just to be clear ... what are the “facts”?


192 posted on 04/14/2012 4:21:41 PM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: TigersEye

I wondered if he was in the AFJROTC because my grandson is in the AFJROTC. He and the other cadets have similar coveralls.


193 posted on 04/14/2012 4:24:21 PM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: Aunt Polgara; Cboldt; PhatHead

Cboldt and PhatHead are my go to guys. I can’t keep up with the daily developments, and they have always seemed to know their stuff.


194 posted on 04/14/2012 4:38:02 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Alice in Wonderland
Just to be clear ... what are the “facts”?

The things you rigorously ignore.

195 posted on 04/14/2012 4:38:22 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Alice in Wonderland
I wondered if he was in the AFJROTC because my grandson is in the AFJROTC. He and the other cadets have similar coveralls.

I see. Just random brain-farts you're having that are irrelevant to the subject and of no interest to anyone.

196 posted on 04/14/2012 4:39:56 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

TigersEye is good too.


197 posted on 04/14/2012 4:49:14 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: TigersEye

Thanks.

Words have meaning...


198 posted on 04/14/2012 4:49:59 PM PDT by Paisan
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Thank you. I’m trying to keep up with this story but those other guys you mentioned are doing better than I am. You’re doing pretty good yourself as a matter of fact.


199 posted on 04/14/2012 5:03:30 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: RIghtwardHo
25 years of Prosecution here.

It is spelled prostitution.

200 posted on 04/14/2012 5:03:42 PM PDT by Eaker (When somebody hands you your arse, don't give it back saying "This needs a little more tenderizing.")
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