(RCP) Battle for White House: 253 Obama, Toss Ups 115, Romney 170 (Obama only 17 Short)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 3 May 12 | RCP

[xzins]

Leans Obama

Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Toss Up

Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)

Leans Romney

Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)

[ScottinVA]

Obama 253
Romney 170

The “lean Obama” and “lean Romney” states likely will stay there (no data shows otherwise). I predict the “undecideds” will go as follows:

Obama:

Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Florida (29)

Romney:

Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)

Obama total: 319
Romney total: 219

Better than McCain’s 2008 numbers, but still well short.

[ScottinVA]

Nobody who is undecided is going to break for Obama.

One wave of the magic "0bama Munny" wand will entrance many of those "undecideds."

[Josh Painter]

It’s not for nothing GOP is called The Stupid Party.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

No doubt about it. Obama will lose big time. Any poll taken now is totally useless. Romney is going to come like gangbusters, once he gets his VP choice and voters really start pay attention after Labor Day. Obama is in deep trouble, and...he knows it. He is throwing everything at the wall, hoping some of it will stick. Going to Afghanistan was the joke of the century.

Take my word for it, any POTUS candidate that runs at or below 50% is in deep trouble, especially when the gent running against him is not widely known as of yet. My predication, regardless of the Obama media bias, is that Obama will carry between on eight to twelve states. And....the Democrat Party will suffers losses that they will not recover from for at least twenty years.

My predictions for 2010 were the Pubbies would win between 60-70 seats. the actual turnover was eighty-seven, with 63 new members.

[Carry_Okie]

He can WIN!!!

See tag line.

[Jim from C-Town]

Probably not.

Anubody that will be swayed by an Obama money wand is already in his camp.

It may cause more of them to come out to vote, which isn’t good either.

[mojitojoe]

Florida is NOT a tossup. o bama stands ZER0 chance in Florida.

[Jim from C-Town]

Excellent analysis.

Obama has yet to get the treatment that Romney gave to Santorum and Gingrich. If nothing else it is easy to find things to beat Obama with. 17 vacations, strange back ground, and aloofness coupled with an economy that is in the tank and sinking is a death sentence for an incumbent president.

Also remember, Obama has told the House and Senate members that he & the party will NOT be giving them any monetary help for their campaign. This is a first ever for any political party and shows how desperate Obama is!

[Longbow1969]

If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention.

That time has passed. This is what primaries are for and Willard the chameleon won more votes and more delegates than any other candidate. I wish we all could have agreed on an actual conservative, but too many people either refused to consider a consensus candidate or were/are still hopelessly waiting on Palin.

then that convention would have to hari-kari or SWITCH.

Please stop with the fantasies. I know some people don't want to accept it, but it really is time to face reality. There is no mechanism to switch candidates when Romney will have all the delegates he needs to be the official nominee.

Thanks for the circular firing squad GOP-e.

The vast majority of conservative leaders and conservative voters detest Obama and are going to vote for the GOP nominee. You are part of a small minority that claim to refuse. Isn't is really you that is keeping the circular firing squad going?

[Leto]

Obama will lose due to his approval numbers who the pubs run is almost irrelevant. 70% of the people in todays quinnipiac poll (Oh, Pa & Fl) feel we are in a recession. Obama loses period the polls are bs, oversampling dems based on 2008 exit poll data and not the 2010 data.

[grumpygresh]

Carter was way ahead of Reagan for most of 1980.

[unkus]

Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t decide to be president for life because the GOP would let him.

---

Yep.

This time the revolution will look like the French Revolution.

[unkus]

I like your analysis.

[Jim from C-Town]

AHHH< Nobody outside of those tuned into politics knows who Mitt Romney is. He is not a known quantity. He simply has to be scene as palatable to beat Obama.

ALL REELECTIONS ARE ABOUT THE INCUMBENT! And Obama is a stinker polling well below 50% in practically every state.

[xzins]

Arizona: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (92,96,2000,2004,2008)(2/5th Democrat)

Colorado: Clinton, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5th Dem)

Florida: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5 Dem)

Iowa: Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Bush, Obama (4/5 Dem)

Missouri: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, McCain (2/5 Dem)

New Hampshire: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Kerry, Obama (4/5 Dem)

North Carolina: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)

Ohio: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (3/5 Dem)

Virginia: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)

1/5 Dem: NCarolina, Virginia,
2/5 Dem: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri
3/5 Dem: Ohio
4/5 Dem: New Hampshire, Iowa

[HOYA97]

You are exactly right. I beleive the polls will show Obama leading right up to the GOP convention. When people actually to start to think about the election, around Labor Day, you will start to see a shift. Small at first. I am convinced that most folks even some left of centers are going to look at Obama and his administration and say enough is enough. Obama is worried.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“Obama will lose due to his approval numbers who the pubs run is almost irrelevant. 70% of the people in todays quinnipiac poll (Oh, Pa & Fl) feel we are in a recession. Obama loses period the polls are bs, oversampling dems based on 2008 exit poll data and not the 2010 data.”

I agree with you.

I have deep respect for Jim Robinson, am very grateful he put this site together, and feel that he is one of those people who has made a significant positive impact in the world. That said, I personally feel that it is imperative that we win this election, even with Romney. Romney would not have made it on my list of preferred candidates, and his Romneycare is against what I believe is best for American health care, but I strongly believe that he is immensely preferable to the composite politically correct ideologically driven and possibly Manchurian current U.S. President.

This is a Republican election to lose, but unfortunately the R's have proved time and again that they are capable of being boneheaded losers.

[StAnDeliver]

RCP? Really? I'll play along, briefly...

Likely States
O/161 - R/131

That is the full measure of anything definitive before Labor Day.

[Andrei Bulba]

Let’s face it, we live under the electoral tyranny of New York and California.

[StAnDeliver]

Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)

I find the inclusion of these two as "Toss-ups", hilariously absurd.

RCP can call a poll a ham sandwich because they know no one (except me and a very few other Freepers) will ever hold them accountable ... further RCP knows people will repost their polls without any critical faculty applied ...