Posted on 05/16/2012 5:35:58 PM PDT by kristinn
From May 5-11, 2012, I conducted a survey of 6,000 likely voters. On such a mammoth sample, the margin of error is less than 1 percent. I found that Romney has amassed a sizable lead over Obama of 51-42, far in excess of what published polling and surveys of registered — as opposed to likely — voters are indicating.
If Romney were to win 51 percent of the vote, the election would, of course, be very close. But if he could hold Obama to 42 percent, it would be a landslide. So the obvious question is how Romney should go about winning the voters in between.
To answer this question, I drilled down in my sample to these undecided voters, none of whom voted for Romney in the survey. I added to their ranks those who voted for Obama but indicated that they only “somewhat” approved of his performance in office. This left me with a sample of 1,500 likely voters who are in play. The data in this column reflects their views. If Romney can win a quarter or a third of their votes, he will win by a landslide margin of 10 points.
On the economy, 46 percent of these swing voters do not believe that there is any recovery. Twenty-three percent say the economy is the same as when Obama took office and an additional 23 percent say it is worse. Thirty-nine percent say the jobs situation has not improved. Twenty-five percent say it is the same and 14 percent say it is worse. And 37 percent agree with the statement that “if we look around, there isn’t real evidence that we are actually making progress.”
Specifically, swing voters do not believe that the unemployment rate drop Obama heralds is real.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
No wonder Obama's campaign is already in panic mode. Romney hasn't closed the sale yet, but Obama is being soundly rejected by voters six months out from the election with no good economic news on the horizon to save the day.
The sad thing is, if elected, Romney won’t fix Social Security, lower the debt limit, cut useless departments like DHS, EPA and the DOEs . He won’t undo homos in the military, or the federal land grab.
He won’t eliminate capital gains, either. If any of these are proposed by a conservative congress, he’ll fight them.
Romney will kick the can down the road like every other liberal.
Just my 2 cents.
The only ones saying that Barry is creaming Romney is FOX news. I don’t know who those morons are polling but it sure as hell isn’t Americans.
More important than voter reaction is what is happening on the national stage. Obama is imploding. His budget was unanimously rejected by both houses. He’s gone public on supporting gay marriages and repeal of DOMA, which, not surprisingly, is proving to be political suicide. As he implodes, his base is panicking. He’s done. Stick a fork in him. Even Romney can beat him.
Well, answering such a poll can be a bit confusing for even the most politically minded "undecideds".
I'll vote ABO in November if it comes to that, but in the mean time I'll look into alternatives.
I think they are still going to use that Electoral College system this year...
Racists!
OK so much for MSM, universities, and Hollywood analysis.
I actually turned FNC on and saw that - WTH?
Are they polling in the English language?
Yes, and Morris pointed out to O’Reilly that Romney will lose California and New York.
The ONLY show on FNC worth a crap is Redeye.
I don't believe ANY Republican could win in those states and Illinois.
I don't think Reagan could win in California as it is constituted today (with the swarm of illegals).
I’ve never seen that.
I offer that the only Fox “news” channel that’s good is FBN.
Commie Obammie will manufacture the economic data “in a nick of time”
We need DIRT, we need the truth about his College years.
Commie Obammie will manufacture the economic data “in a nick of time”
We need DIRT, we need the truth about his College years.
I predict Obama will win Hi, Il, and Ca. After that, all blue states are a toss up.
The Fox News poll is Crap. There, I’ve said it. (In my best Mark Levin Voice).
I’m confused by whiplash.
Got a post on the FAUX Wednesday polling that puts Obamao “UP” by 7, and now Morris, on FAUX, stands by Romney at the 51-42 proposal. Yikes.
This is the reason why Rasmussen is reliable, who poll only “likely voters”.
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