Here Are The Historical Odds Of A Deeper Pullback...

TBI - Pragmatic Capitalism ^ | 6-8-2012 | Cullen Roche

[blam]

Here Are The Historical Odds Of A Deeper Pullback...

Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
June 8, 2012

Here’s some pretty good historical data via Raymond James and Market Montage on the odds of a deeper market decline:

“Some interesting data from Jeff Saut of Raymond James if you are a data hound like I am.

Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%. Ninety four of them have been moderate (>10%), 43 have been severe (>15%) and 25 have been bear markets (>20%).

So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:

10%: 32.0%

15%: 14.6%

20%+: 8.5%”

Normally I’d say it’s unwise to data mine market facts like this and extrapolate out, but 294 data points is pretty broad as far as these kinds of statistics go…..

[broken_arrow1]

This ain’t the past anymore. We were on a gold standard prior to 1971. There is no historical equivalent to project from when the Fed prints money at will and we are at 100% GDP and top it off with the worst president in American history and it is a bad mix!

[PowderMonkey]

"Pullback." With all the descriptors employed of necessity these days, the way things are going there should soon be college courses in Financial literature. At the very least, comedian George Carlin would have had a great routine with these.
Pullback
Hard landing
Soft landing
Retrenchment
Quantitative Easement (my personal favorite)
Inflation
Deflation
GREEN SHOOTS OF RECOVERY!
Freefalling markets
Troubled assets
Predatory lenders (Lions, tigers and bears! Oh my!)

[ex-Texan]

Facebook shares now trading downward again at $ 26.31

LOL !

Not bad for a stock offered at $ 38 in an IPO that was realistically valued at around a mere $ 11 or $ 12.

Nasdaq Chief Apologises for Facebook IPO Fiasco as Shares Continue to Slide

How many $$$$$$$$ Billions did the insiders make ____ ?