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Could New Hampshire decide the election?
New York Times ^ | 30 June 2012 | Election staff analysis

Posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:27 PM PDT by Vigilanteman

The New York Times has updated their electoral map, moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the toss-up category.

Unlike the Huffington Post which shows Obama has 254 electoral votes locked down, the Times shows him with just 185 plus 32 leaning for a total of 217. He needs 53 among the toss-up states to put him over 270, still less than Romney, who needs 64 with solid states and leaners included.

I've therefore listed the 9 states and electoral votes of each in the toss-up category in order of likelihood to vote GOP:

  1. Virginia - 13
  2. Florida - 29
  3. Ohio - 18
  4. New Hampshire - 4
  5. Iowa - 6
  6. Nevada - 6
  7. Colorado - 9
  8. Pennsylvania - 20
  9. Wisconsin - 10

(Excerpt) Read more at elections.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; obama; romney
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To: bill1952
You did not get the message, RomneyBOT.

Mr. ROMNEYCARE was put there TO LOSE.

BEHOLD YOUR MASTER IMPOSING OBAMACARE AND RomneyDEATHPANELS.


21 posted on 06/30/2012 5:28:28 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Thanks.

I think Romney has Florida in the bag. If Obama could only win it by <3% in a great year like 2008, I feel like there’s no way he could have a realistic shot now. Plus, Obamacare is toxic there. Ohio is more sketchy, but it should almost surely go to Romney if the election is close. Like your analysis, I think NH and VA are the lynchpins.


22 posted on 06/30/2012 5:29:54 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: Diogenesis

It’s OK. Willard’s gonna save the Republic. Just like John Roberts.


23 posted on 06/30/2012 5:32:24 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: bill1952

Nh over rode the Gov veto of voter ID last week.


24 posted on 06/30/2012 5:33:42 PM PDT by UB355 (Slower traffic keep right)
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To: fortheDeclaration
The Times moved North Carolina into the GOP leaning camp several months ago. Obama won it by less than 0.4% in 2008.

The Huffington Post still has it in the toss-up category, JFYI.

Disclosure: I was an early supporter of Rick Santorum and a reluctant Romney voter only because I live in a toss-up state. My interest in this thread is not in promoting his candidacy, but in using my professional and numerical analytical skills to show just how far we have declined as a country.

As I've said before, if this country had the degree of sanity left now which we did a generation ago, Obama would be a laughing stock on the order of Lyndon LaRouche, Romney would be the Democrat nominee and a solid conservative would be the GOP nominee. That not being the case, I will still vote for a JFK style Democrat any time over a naked Marxist.

25 posted on 06/30/2012 5:33:42 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I have no illusions that Romney will lead us to prosperity. But I’d rather have a 1% chance of this country surviving the next 4 years than a 0% chance.


26 posted on 06/30/2012 5:37:58 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: Vigilanteman
We're the home state of Betty and Barney Hill, first people to publicly claim abduction by aliens.

You don't want us deciding anything.

27 posted on 06/30/2012 5:40:24 PM PDT by Aglooka ("I was out numbered 5-to-1, I got 4.")
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To: Aglooka
LOL! You've got that right.

But now we have a country which has been abducted by aliens.

So we may very well be stuck with New Hampshire deciding. Scary thought, indeed!

28 posted on 06/30/2012 5:47:19 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman
In 2000 it could be argued that NH (4 Electoral votes) *did* decide the election.In 2010 NH booted out both their Congresscritters (both of them far left moonbats) and elected a Republican to the Senate.Just a few days ago the NH legislature overrode the Rat Governor's veto of a voter ID law.Seems to me that NH is Romney's to lose.
29 posted on 06/30/2012 5:59:31 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Vigilanteman

Even with a milk dud like Romney.....The Marxist Muslim America Hating Faggot illegal alien will be lucky to take his ‘home’ state of Hawaii.

This is going to be a landslide for Romney.


30 posted on 06/30/2012 5:59:50 PM PDT by Electric Graffiti (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their Moonbats)
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To: Gay State Conservative
If NH is important, Mr. RomneyCARE should pull out ...NOW!!!!

Bad Gov. Romney, in another of his “hit and runs”
managed to even raise taxes on New Hampshire residents
while Gov. of Massachusetts.
Believe it or not.


31 posted on 06/30/2012 6:03:33 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

No.


32 posted on 06/30/2012 6:14:04 PM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag (Boiling tea makes it stronger. I'm a Tea Party Patriot...and I AM BOILING!!!)
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To: Electric Graffiti
This is going to be a landslide for Romney.

It's complacency like that that can get Osama Obama four more years in which to twist the knife that he's already stuck in this nation's back.

This one's gonna be close...."2000 close"!

33 posted on 06/30/2012 6:14:04 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Diogenesis

its YOU who aren’t “getting the message!”

Your cut & paste childishness is not getting respect here on FR - We have a JOB to do, not be bothered with your 12 year old ranting against the only person in the country, who, at this time, can beat obama.

I couldn’t care less about your silly images anymore because they are not the POINT.

The point - one that you simply cannot understand - is that Obama must go.
Stop boring us - you have nothing pertinent or new to bring to the fight to kick obama out, just your opinions of Mitt

When you can bring forth a clear alternative - and you can’t - and a better way to beat obama, in this election, then post it.
Until then just know that your posts have descended into monotony. Boring.
The adult voters will ignore you until then.


34 posted on 06/30/2012 6:17:55 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: Diogenesis

35 posted on 06/30/2012 6:20:36 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Gay State Conservative

36 posted on 06/30/2012 6:31:51 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Unfortunately, I think you can completely remove PA from the list; it’s full of liberals.


37 posted on 06/30/2012 6:51:40 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: Vigilanteman

“If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn’t need a single state above it. Romney doesn’t need a single state below it.”

Nice work, but I predicted as much months ago:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2872829/posts?page=50#50

New Hampshire may indeed play a pivotal role this time around, as may Nebraska and/or Maine. The reason for the latter is because both NE and ME are “split states”, that do not assign electors by “winner take all”. I’m guessing that Obama will win ME in its entirety, but that NE may “split”, giving Obama 1 electoral vote and giving Romney the rest. If so, it could throw the election into the House. Or perhaps it will be ME that splits, giving Romney one or two votes extra...

One thing of which I’m absolutely certain: this is NOT going to be “a landslide” for Romney. He will either win with a small but respectable margin, or, it will be as squeaky a squeaker as was 2000.

Prediction:
The era of “landslides”, at least conservative ones, is over for a while. For the next couple of decades, the trend will be towards close, bitter contests. In order to have “landslides”, you need a large enough cohort of voters willing to join together to create one. The only demographic group capable of producing such numbers are the Euro-Americans, and they have been shrinking as an overall percentage of the population for some time now. Couple this with the reality that the Euro-Americans are bitterly divided amongst themselves politically, and also that their “middle” is shrinking as the left and right become more polarized. This makes it challenging for Republicans to persuade a sufficient number of “the white middle” to come to their side to achieve a “landslide win”. It’s all they can do just to win, period.

It’s a matter of changing demographics, as much as anything else.

The demographic “America” that gave landslide victories to Ronald Reagan simply doesn’t exist any more. It won’t be coming back.

I’d enjoy being proven wrong come November, but that’s the way I see it….


38 posted on 06/30/2012 6:59:31 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Vigilanteman

There is also a remote chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. In which case, the likely Republican congress would pick the winner (there might even be a two party split between the President and Vice-president, something not seen since the 19th century).


39 posted on 06/30/2012 7:51:24 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
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To: Vigilanteman
Huffington is on drugs!

Last I saw they had Obama at 270 electorial votes.

I don't think he will get 170.

40 posted on 06/30/2012 8:29:25 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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