Jay Cost: Why Obama Is in Trouble

Weekly Standard ^ | 07/11/2012 | Jay Cost

[SeekAndFind]

When you see a new poll, what do you look at first? With the general election campaign nominally underway, most people would say that they look at the head-to-head matchup between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

But I’m still intensely focused on the president’s job approval numbers.

The reason has to do with my view of a presidential campaign when an incumbent is on the ballot. Based on my read of the history and the political science research on the subject, I’ve put together a rough outline of how the average voter makes up his mind. It looks something like this:

Basically, the vote choice begins with the broadest consideration of American politics – i.e. which party you affiliate with – and then on to how you think the country is doing. Together, those two factors likely determine whether you think the incumbent president has done a good job.

All of that happens before the campaign has even begun. This serves as the backdrop for how you respond to the campaign. If, for instance, you are a Democrat who thinks the country is on the right track and Obama has done a good job, the hurdle Mitt Romney will have to jump is, for all intents and purposes, insuperable. If, on the other hand, you’re a partisan Republican who thinks the country is in terrible shape and Obama is awful, then the GOP already has your vote in the bag.

[SeekAndFind]

The following chart compares Obama’s job approval among whites, African Americans, and Hispanics (averaged over the last four weeks) against the performance of the Democratic candidate for president in 1988, 2004, and 2008.



The last Democrat to win a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Obviously, Democrats do not need to win a majority of whites to win the White House, but they need more than 37 percent.

Note as well that Obama's numbers with African Americans and Hispanics are off their highs, at least at the moment.

[SeekAndFind]

What about partisan identification?

[SeekAndFind]

Finally, what about geographical regions?



This is very bad news for President Obama. Most of the swing states are in the Midwest, and he is doing quite badly there at the moment, with approval numbers that correspond roughly to what Dukakis pulled in 1988.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST OF THE ANALYSIS...

[reefdiver]

The leftest democrat party was handed it’s walking papers two years ago November. A major defeat, Kicked Nancy in the ass, Had zer0 been part of that ticket He would of been gone.

He goes this November

So do more Leftest democrats

But the damage is done. Cities shutting down cause they are broke, the ex cops, they and the firefighters will want the money, its not there. Big battles on the horizon.

[reefdiver]

The leftest democrat party was handed it’s walking papers two years ago November. A major defeat, Kicked Nancy in the ass, Had zer0 been part of that ticket He would of been gone.

He goes this November

So do more Leftest democrats

But the damage is done. Cities shutting down cause they are broke, the ex cops, they and the firefighters will want the money, its not there. Big battles on the horizon.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

We’ve turned a corner:

America must start making things again.

Soon. Now. And big.

Not someday. Not eventually. NOW.

[Tennessean4Bush]

With Romney raising money at a much higher clip and virtually even to a tick or two higher in LV polls, Obama is toast. Factor in the groups like American Crossroads and Chamber of Commerce, etc., that are spending big in swing states right now, Romney can continue to build his war chest and bring it to bear in Sep and Oct. The big fear I had was Romney being out of cash and Obama just burying him with ads defining him and nothing on air to rebut and strike back at those ads during late Spring and early Summer. Clinton buried Dole in late Spring and early Summer. Dole was out of money after a fairly long primary, and there was no ability for super PACs to come to his rescue. He was completely defined by the time the conventions happened and Dole got matching funds. Of course, Dole was an uninspiring speaker and leader. That did not help.

[Roscoe Karns]

The Obama campaign has already posted a point by point rebuttal here

[Gay State Conservative]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

[Josa]

A good place to start would be the Space Program.

[nascarnation]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

Just the number of Mitty haters on FR is enough to tweak that stat upwards, no?

[MNDude]

Wait, he went from 9% to 11% with republicans?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Roscoe, that is perfect. LOL!!

[Gay State Conservative]

Just the number of Mitty haters on FR is enough to tweak that stat upwards, no?

I thought the Mitt haters were planning to vote for some reincarnation of Ronald Reagan or write in Palin.If they're actually gonna *vote* for Osama then they're sicker than I imagined.

[Signalman]

11% of “Republicans” are voting for Obama. And about half of them are right here posting on FR.

[DNME]

I’m just terrified at what Obummer will do if/when he realizes he’s toast.

He will NOT go quietly.

And we might want to plan a gathering of patriots — a real BIG gathering — to keep the coming Lame Duck session from turning into a genuine nightmare.

[reed13k]

it’ll take more than the repeal of obamacare. regulations of every kind are killing industry.

[skeama]

Not sure why I typed 'deepness' ... too late now ...

This is the absolute worst case scenario I can see. This election is over.

Time to focus on the senate races.

[neverdem]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

You're talking about 9 versus 11 percent. The sampling error for those small percentages is probably much larger than you appreciate. Do you think there are more RINO voters now? I doubt it. It's about 10 percent plus or minus X. For all intents and purposes, they are the same number.