Skip to comments.Minnesota in play? (Obama's lead cut in half since February)
Posted on 07/23/2012 11:08:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could Mitt Romney become the first Republican presidential nominee to win Minnesota since … Richard Nixon? Local ABC affiliate KSTP and Survey USA conducted a new poll this past week, and it shows that Barack Obama's lead has been cut in half, and that he's well below the 50% mark. Has presidential politics returned to the Land of 10,000 Lakes? (via Gary Gross)
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In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 07/20/12, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.
Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.
Interestingly, the likely-voter breakout may undersample Republicans just a bit. The D/R/I on the sample is 38/32/28, with a D+6. In the big Democratic wave of 2008, when Obama won Minnesota by double digits, the exit polls showed a D+4 advantage, 40/36/25. (There are no exit polls for MN from 2010.) Democrats may well be slightly less inclined to turn out in 2012, but I’d guess that Republicans are more charged up in Minnesota than they were in 2008, and that the 32% is too low.
Obama’s performance is certainly one reason why Democrats might be less inclined to turn out, but the Senate race is another. It’s not that they’re at risk of losing Amy Klobuchar’s grip on the seat; she leads GOP nominee Kurt Bills by 24 points, about the same gap by which she beat Mark Kennedy in the Democratic wave election of 2006. If Bills doesn’t do something to get engaged in the media and the race, Klobuchar will win this one in a sleeper — which will not exactly fire up Democrats to run to the polls.
Republicans have two key referendums on the ballot this year, too. Voters will choose whether to amend the state constitution to require photo-ID for voting, and whether to move the current statutory language defining marriage into a constitutional amendment. Conservatives expect a strong turnout for support of both, and the poll shows both look likely to pass. The marriage amendment is ahead 52/37, with majorities of both men (53/39) and women (52/36) in favor. The voter-ID bill looks even stronger, with almost two-thirds supporting the change (65/28) and even a narrow plurality of Democrats favoring it (48/45).
If Obama can’t get to 50% in Minnesota against Romney this early in the general-election cycle, then it may be a very long election — especially when the voter turnout model has to be shaped by a non-competitive race (so far) for the US Senate seat held by a Democratic incumbent and two popular conservative referendums.
If Minnesota is this close, Wisconsin has to be looking good too.
To keep Minnesota Obama just needs to dump Biden and pick up Mondale.
Survey USA Poll: Obama’s Lead Cut in Half Since Last Poll (Could Obama actually lose Minnesota?)
It also means Iowa and Missouri are sure things for the GOP.
Obama is so Obysmal that states nobody dreamed would be in play, will be. While the political cognoscenti are aware of enough issues with Mitt Romney that they may well vote for nobody or a protest candidate for president, they aren’t all that characteristic a segment of greater America. Most of greater America knows Mitt mainly from his current campaigns, if at all (and others simply see Mitt as the un-Obama). And Barack Obama will never accuse Mitt of being too liberal.
Bottom line, all this yack about Mitt having to win traditional swing states is likely to prove meaningless. Mitt will probably walk away with several historically Democrat strongholds. It couldn’t happen to a nicer Democrat president. Really.
The latest poll shows that those calling themselves Republicans actually outnumber those calling themselves Democrats. Now, of course, to the “purer than the driven snow” around here 90% of those calling themselves Republicans in this poll are RINOs but whatever.
unless Romney wins 60% to 35, the recount will go to obama.
sad to say the elections in MN have been corrupted.
And don’t forget the Bradley Effect and snow on Election Day (two factors we hoped for in 2008 but didn’t materialize enough to make a difference).
Minnesota, which has voted for the dems in every election since going for Nixon in 1972, preferring Carter (2), Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton (2), Gore, Kerry and Obama; and elected nutcases like Jesse Ventura and Al Franken?
Obama would have to embrace unabashed capitalism before he loses there. Romney is right not to spend any appreciable amount$ in that state.
Actually, the Minnesota Supreme Court has a rightward tilt, thanks to Tim Pawlenty’s appointments.
I find it odd that northeastern MN is showing a Romney advantage, while the rest of the state is for Obama.
NE Minnesota is a Democrat-Farmer-Labor stronghold - or at least it has been in the past. In 2010, however, Chip Cravaak (R) defeated Jim Oberstar for the US Congress seat. The reason was not only the surge in GOP voters that year, but disgust among the labor workers over the relentless, environmental obstuctionism against mining in areas with high unemployment. These folks need and want jobs. For them the issue is the economy, stupid, and Obama’s and the DFL’s abysmal record in opposition to their aspirations for honest work.
We’ve been told that the amount of copper and nickel to be mined in NE MN is considerable, but our DMwits in St. Paul and our Governor always obstruct it.
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WI is Romney’s to loose. As long as he keeps Walker on his side he should carry the state. The local unions blew their wad (of cash) on the recall and the people in WI are fired up.
MN is most defiantly in play.. 2010 Republicans did very well in this state (Dayton being the exception)
My liberal family members use to drone on and on about dem crap.. They are unusually quiet these days. Yard signs are starting to go up but even those are few and far between. I still see some Zero stickers from 08 on smoke belching Toyotas and other common lib cars but not many new Zero stickers.
Not sure who the idiot was that chose the R to run against Amy. I would have liked to see Rod Grams run again. He likely could have beat her.
During the Independence Day parades the Klobuchar people went by and and the crowd was silent (until my group started chanting “where's the jobs?”)