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My take on the polls.

Posted on 08/08/2012 6:01:38 PM PDT by Jaguarmike

Rassmussen and Gallup national polls show a close race between Romney and Obama. Yet most swing state polls show Obama with a sizable lead.

Why the disparity?

We all know that many of the polls oversample Democrats. But I still believe Obama has a slight lead in most of those states. Obama has been bombarding airwaves in Ohio, FL, VA, CO, etc, with commercials, while Romney has been relatively quiet. Obviously Romney is going to spend most of his money after the convention. My question is, will those ads slam Obama, or will they lay out Romney's agenda?

I think it would be smarter to go the latter route.

Peoples' reaction to Obama is baked by now. I don't think even the most negative ads will change their minds. The best way to reach independents is to explain to them how Romney would be different. This is what I think Romney needs to do.

One key factor in our favor: it does seem as if Republicans are more motivated to come out and vote than Democrats. There won't be any +7 Democrat advantage. But Romney still has a lot of work to do.

We all need to get out and vote. We need to get our conservative friends out to vote.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; elections; politics; vanity

1 posted on 08/08/2012 6:01:44 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: Jaguarmike
Why the disparity?

...because the libtard media can't fix all the numbers

2 posted on 08/08/2012 6:03:57 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: Jaguarmike

I can only hope Romney takes the gloves off and to coin a phrase”calls a spade a spade” and tells the people just what a POS the POTUS is.


3 posted on 08/08/2012 6:11:13 PM PDT by CGASMIA68
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To: Jaguarmike

Here in Colorado the ads on TV seem to be pretty even.
Just my subjective view.


4 posted on 08/08/2012 6:12:18 PM PDT by cruise_missile
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To: cruise_missile

Interesting.

I do know, overall Romney has been outspent in the swing states.


5 posted on 08/08/2012 6:13:26 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: Doogle

Can you fathom the mindless retard that would actually tell a pollster how she would vote on a secret ballot. Have we not learned these polls are worthless? Did you know that Carter was beating Reagan by 6 points the day before the election? This is because people with brains tell pollsters to go to hell. Don’t talk about polls any more . Only weak minded participate. I tell pollsters if you will pay me $600 ,I will answer— how much are you making?


6 posted on 08/08/2012 6:16:49 PM PDT by marygonzo
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To: Jaguarmike
Yet most swing state polls show Obama with a sizable lead.

Those are the garbage (gigo) polls put out for public consumption. The real insider polls show Romney leading in most swing states.
7 posted on 08/08/2012 6:22:40 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Doogle

I have a hard time believing all of the poll numbers that come out now, especially those from CBS and the hardcore lib media. They could fake Pintos exploding. They could fake Texas Air National Guard memos. What makes you think that they couldn’t fake something as simple as an opinion poll? They are NOT journalists, they are propagandists. And they are spinning hard for the Boy Genius. A poll comes out with Obama in the lead in a swing state and they come out all breathless in their newscast. Obama is NOT as popular as they claim. How could he be? He hasn’t accomplished ANYTHING. Think about that. Four years and no accompishments. And don’t give me killing bin Laden. Obama wanted no part of that, until it was explained to him that he would be dead in the water if he DIDN’T kill him. Bailing out GM was not a success either. Anyway, the mere fact that they are breathless about reporting on THEIR OWN polls, means that they are scared shirtless.


8 posted on 08/08/2012 6:24:12 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: marygonzo

I told this story a few years ago while Bubba was testifying...
My phone rang and after the initial intro, I asked the “pollster” how long this would take...she said about 7 mins
The first question asked, Do you believe the impeachment of President Clinton will hurt the country?...I said No, they hung up....so the poll lasted about 23 seconds depending on the first question....*smiles*


9 posted on 08/08/2012 6:28:29 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: cruise_missile

Here in Wyoming Obama is toast.


10 posted on 08/08/2012 7:24:35 PM PDT by Big Horn (Rebuild the GOP to a conservative party)
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To: Big Horn

Got to love Wyoming!


11 posted on 08/08/2012 7:31:46 PM PDT by cruise_missile
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To: marygonzo

But you are missing soooooooo much fun. We get polling calls about every other week because we live in a swing area of a swing state. I tell them I used to be a black woman who’s had a male sex change operation and I despise Obama because he throws like a girl.


12 posted on 08/08/2012 7:37:44 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Jaguarmike

Bad idea. Negative ads work and they work best on middle of the road morons who say they hate negative ads.


13 posted on 08/08/2012 7:40:20 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Jaguarmike
Agree.

After 4 years of nobama over exposure, constantly “in our face”, blame everyone else and clear lack of competence, Romney's being practically the opposite gives voters a refreshing contrast with a reassurance that he knows how to “manage” us out of this mess.

14 posted on 08/08/2012 8:14:00 PM PDT by X-spurt (It is truly time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
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To: Jaguarmike

I do know, overall Romney has been outspent in the swing states.

-

So far.

Romney has a huge war chest building up.

With the right VP nominee, he’ll go far.


15 posted on 08/08/2012 8:23:30 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Jaguarmike

The lib-tard media polls are ALL faked. The VAST MAJORITY of real American, legit voters are appalled by the Democrat/ Communist Party and have been for decades. The elite media turds have to pad the polls to cover up the impact of the MILLIONS of illegals who march to the polls to vote for the open-border libs. Add to that all the inner-city welfare bloodsucker who vote 10 to 20 times each, and the libs can sometimes sneak into office.


16 posted on 08/08/2012 8:46:38 PM PDT by GodAndCountryFirst
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To: jwalsh07
Dewhurst in Tx put out an ad that had a woman blaming Cruz for her son's suicide. People thought it was disgusting. Didn't turn out to well for Dewhurst I think everyone but hardcore BO fans see those types of ads as desperation.
17 posted on 08/08/2012 9:30:25 PM PDT by dandiegirl
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To: Jaguarmike

Question: We don’t have a television at my home.

I wonder how many people have given up network or cable tv and only see ads that they choose on YouTube?


18 posted on 08/08/2012 9:35:47 PM PDT by garjog
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To: marygonzo

Polls immediately before an election are anything but worthless

not since Dewey

1980 race had tightened in October and was nearly even till the debate

you are right though...polls this early out are just a snapshot of today

and heavily Democrat weighed...weighed for Democrat turnout in 2008 which was 10-15 points higher than in 2010

where it is now is speculative

but the polls immediately before an election are indicative..not worthless

Reagan surged the last week after the one and only debate one week before the elction.....

.http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf

we do this every election here...discount polls that aren’t what we want

but those that are we treat as gold


19 posted on 08/09/2012 2:02:48 AM PDT by wardaddy (this white hair don't cover up my redneck......)
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To: Vigilanteman

That is funny. Maybe I AM missing something!!


20 posted on 08/09/2012 8:52:58 PM PDT by marygonzo
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