Obama 47% Romney 46% (Reg. Voters / Dems sampled +6)

Monmouth College ^ | 8/20/2012 | Patrick Murray

[GlockThe Vote]

In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time. In June, Obama’s lead in the Monmouth University Poll was 46% to 42% among registered voters and 47% to 46% among likely voters. Independent voters are split – 40% for Romney to 37% for Obama. Obama claims 87% support among Democrats and Romney has 87% of the Republican vote.

[GlockThe Vote]

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

27% Rep 48% Male 23% 18-34 73% White

33% Dem 52% Female 39% 35-54 10% Black

40% Ind 38% 55+ 11

[GlockThe Vote]

Obama is in DDDEEEEEP trouble.

Over sampling Democrats by 6 and using registered voters and the best they can do is Obama +1?

[South40]

A poll of ‘registered voters’ means nothing.

[newzjunkey]

This is before the Todd Akin fallout. Obama can easily still sweep.

[GlockThe Vote]

Correct - but if its only got obama at 46% w 6% RAT over sample - its no wonder why he is freaking out daily.

[Shadow44]

How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?

[GlockThe Vote]

The freak show better drop out or it will an albatross until November.

[RayChuang88]

Remember, Reagan didn't get his landslide winning factor until the last month of the campaign in 1980. As such, we could see a gigantic political bloodbath against Obama, and even the Democratic National Committee after this election may gang up against the Chicago Democratic Party "mob."

Don't even be surprised at all if either Romney or Ryan makes a surprise appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. If that happens, it will be officially all over for President Obama.

[GlockThe Vote]

Ryan will definately do Stewart.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

More crap poles... garbage!

[South40]

Point taken.

I just did some research and on average, only 55% of registered voters vote in presidential elections.

National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960–2010

[Crucial]

What does vote fraud add to Obama’s total? I’d say that it cancels out oversampling by probably five points.

[italianquaker]

Is this before the biden fallout also? Mitt could easily still sweep also

[Tea Party Terrorist]

Dems were +7 in 2008, so +6 today isn’t too much of a stretch.

Romney needs to play like he’s 7 points down.

[jersey117]

That jerk will drop out by tomorrow. And it doesn’t trump the economy.
Y.

[GlockThe Vote]

2008 was the high water mark for democrats. No way they turn out +6.

Four years ago remember the speeches the massive rallies on campuses, the hype, the hysteria?

Where I live in NYC and lower Westchester, there is NOTHING.

No stickers, no yard signs, nothing. You would not even know an election were happening here.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

The excerpt contradicts the title.

In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time.

[Cyber Liberty]

I thought it was just me.

[GlockThe Vote]

Saw that - maybe the mods can change it

[1035rep]

Only if you forget the 2010 election ever happened.