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All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)
Yahoo News - The Signal ^ | August 23, 2012 | David Rothschild

Posted on 08/23/2012 12:05:04 PM PDT by QT3.14

When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.

Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes. This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures. If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; elections; obama; romney
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To: Marcella

Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!


41 posted on 08/23/2012 2:24:51 PM PDT by thefactor (yes, as a matter of fact, i DID only read the excerpt)
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To: QT3.14

I only want to see slow, steady increases in Romney’s favor. I do not want one of us to get even a little bit complacent.

SOOOoooo much can and likely will happen between now and Election Day I don’t care what the polls say (although I study them every day!)


42 posted on 08/23/2012 2:24:58 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: justiceseeker93

I am signed up to be on “Lawyers for Romney” to do vote fraud monitoring.

still waiting for my assignment.


43 posted on 08/23/2012 2:28:49 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

He likes to be jammed, too.


44 posted on 08/23/2012 2:30:32 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Yehuda; Political Junkie Too; Impy; InterceptPoint; fieldmarshaldj
I disagree with your map as follows:

States that you have GOP that will go Dem: Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14). Total = 21 EVs.

States that you have Dem that will go GOP: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). Total = 66 EVs.

Final Total: Romney 315 EVs, Obama 223 EVs.

Warning: Subject to change between now and Election Day.

45 posted on 08/23/2012 2:30:32 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Yehuda

Uh, Obama ain’t takin’ Virgina. Them’s fight’n words.


46 posted on 08/23/2012 2:34:13 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: fwdude
I know, I know!!! Freudian slip!

VIRGINIA

(kind of like Pubic service announcement.)

47 posted on 08/23/2012 2:37:25 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Mr. Bird
To your point:

Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability,

Yet, the most reliable polls currently available -- the The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls -- have Obama trailing Romney by 47-45 and 47-43, respectively.

There are those 2-3 percentage points you're referring to --people who will admit to "liking" President Obama, to avoid a charge of racism...but won't vote for him.

And I'd wager there are 2-3 percentage points more who claim they're going to vote for Obama on the phone...but, once inside the privacy of a voting booth, will do otherwise.

48 posted on 08/23/2012 2:38:35 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: thefactor
Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!

Not pansies, that's for sure.

But it looks like another storm is brewing that's aiming at the East Coast. Wouldn't THAT be something?!

49 posted on 08/23/2012 2:40:27 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: HamiltonJay

Hey, FDR got reelected in ‘36, so anything’s possible.


50 posted on 08/23/2012 2:42:57 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: thefactor

“Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!”

Someone who hasn’t been through one. I also heard Tampa hasn’t had a hit from one in several years, so I guess they were feeling their luck would hold.

If a hurricane comes in at Galveston, it’s coming through my area and I go on “watch” mode from about the middle of June through October, and September is usually the worst month and the convention starts on Aug. 27. It was a roll of the dice and they lost.


51 posted on 08/23/2012 2:53:11 PM PDT by Marcella (Conservatism is dead. PREPARE)
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To: DPMD

You probably won’t have massive voter fraud in any one state, just enough to make a difference in a close state.

In 1960, Texas and Illinois had highly suspicious results and probable cause to believe that there was massive voter fraud. But Nixon refused to demand a recount.

In 2000, there was a lot of voter fraud in Florida, but not quite enough to counteract the POd Cuban voters going overwhelmingly for Bush.


52 posted on 08/23/2012 2:55:18 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: Cyber Liberty; All
Hey, FDR got reelected in ‘36, so anything’s possible.

Yes, there are a lot of parallels between Obama's MO and Roosevelt's, including government redistribution of wealth and publicly proclaimed class warfare. In addition, government welfare programs were commonly used to buy votes. Yet, in both instances, general economic conditions remained poor.

But Romney, no matter what you think of him, is a much more effective campaigner than Alf Landon, the 1936 GOP nominee who carried only Maine and Vermont for a grand total of 8 electoral votes.

53 posted on 08/23/2012 2:56:13 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: OrangeHoof; onyx; SE Mom; penelopesire; LucyT

No one has figured the race card in the “like” element. If one claims no to like BO they are endanger of being called a racist.....mmm mmm mmmm


54 posted on 08/23/2012 2:58:02 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: QT3.14
The "favorability" issue is why the Dems are going to frantically try to co-opt the GOP convention this time around.

They are desperate to define Romney instead of having him define himself.

They defined George Bush for 8 years...now they are trying the same thing with Romney although it's not working as well.

The debates will tell the story. When people see Romney for who he is in the debates they will see he is not the demon these leftists creeps are trying to make him out to be. And these screaming banshees are going to be defeated.

55 posted on 08/23/2012 2:59:07 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Eleutheria5
In 1960, Texas and Illinois had highly suspicious results and probable cause to believe that there was massive voter fraud. But Nixon refused to demand a recount.

An acquaintance originally from the Chicago area, told me about coming home from college for Xmas that year. Ran into an old HS buddy (19 years old) who told him he had voted 18 times in the November election. Apparently he was paid so much per vote ... said it was easy money. Multiply that by several hundred people doing the same thing and you understand why there were voter irregularities in the Chicago area.

56 posted on 08/23/2012 3:07:34 PM PDT by BluH2o
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To: DPMD
or the fact that a Spanish company will be counting them...
57 posted on 08/23/2012 3:13:54 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: QT3.14
Romney's consistent negative favorability to unfavorability split is unprecedented in American politics.

OK, so will Romney PLEASE step down for the good of the party and the country? Too much is at stake in this election! Someone tell him to stop being so selfish. And cut off all his funding NOW.

58 posted on 08/23/2012 3:20:22 PM PDT by JediJones (Too Hot for GOP TV: Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Allen West and Donald Trump)
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To: Marcella
Would the Hurricane hitting mean the convention would be rescheduled for after the DNC? A hurricane is never a good thing, but I'd love the convention to be after Obama’s.
59 posted on 08/23/2012 4:19:20 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: Tallguy
Obama is going to give away the keys to the treasury in the waning days of the campaign in naked transactional campaigning.

When George W. Bush came into office, the Clintons stole everything that wasn't nailed down. And yet Rove et al. gave us this crap about "we can't let Bill Clinton suck all the air out of the room by prosecuting him for his numerous felonies ..... we have to concentrate on the Bush agenda, and not get distracted".

Yeah, like Lyndon Johnson didn't let Vietnam distract him from trying to use the Treasury to lock up the Government forever for the Democrats.

Just once, I wish an incoming GOP president would prosecute the living hell out of his felonious predecessor and throw his ass in Leavenworth. You'd see an end of that kind of behavior, like the last-minute Clinton pardons-for-cash.

60 posted on 08/23/2012 4:33:47 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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