Strassel: Mr. Romney, Trust Your Pants

WSJ ^ | 7-13-12 | Kim Strassel

[Dysart]

In the classic 1968 film "Once Upon a Time in the West," a villainous Henry Fonda shoots one of his lackeys, in part for the sin of wearing both a belt and suspenders. How do you trust a man, muses Fonda, who "can't even trust his own pants?"

Mitt Romney is slipping in the polls because, when it comes to his own policies, he is once again wearing a belt, suspenders, and even some elasticized waistbands. The bold Romney who picked Paul Ryan as a catalyst to run on ideas has been ousted by the return of the careful Romney who wants this race to be about Barack Obama. And America is unwilling to trust a man who seems unwilling to trust his own agenda.

BREAK

Americans respond well to A-B-C explanations of valuable reform. (Here is what is wrong. Here is my policy to fix it. Here is how it works, with three examples. Here is the good that comes of it.) Were Mr. Romney to apply this formula to health care, entitlements, food stamps and college loans, he'd be winning.

The press embarrassed itself this week by flaying Mr. Romney's criticism of the State Department while giving a pass to the policies of a president who, after announcing the death of four diplomats, flew to a campaign event in Las Vegas. The press doesn't care. Its goal was to let Mr. Romney know what's in store for him should he consider mounting more than a mediocre campaign. If he gets spooked by that, he's done.

America isn't going to trust a candidate who doesn't trust his own pants. Unhitch, Mr. Romney, and earn the votes.

[MNJohnnie]

Only problem is this "Slippage in the polls is a media manfucatured myth. Perhaps you can explain to me why an NBC/Marist poll that ranks 15 in accuracy historically is to be considered accurate when it is 7 points in 0 favor while the poll that has been constantly number 1 in the ranking shows 0 only up 1 in Ohio? Polls by the way, released on the very same day.

They both cannot be right. ONE of them has to be wrong. So who am I to believe the number 1 ranked or the number 15 ranked pollster?

[DoughtyOne]

Romney slipping in the polls? Really?

Here’s a link to the Huntington Post electoral map projection.

A little background first.

About a month ago, I bookmarked this web page, and I’ve been visiting it frequently. I know, I know, it’s the Huntington Post. I expect it to be biased. Knowing that, if Romney’s numbers look anything near normal, that has to mean he’s much more competitive than we think.

When I started visiting the site, Obama was rated at about 310 electoral votes, and Romney about 140, the rest leaning Obama.

Since that time, there has been a marked slide of Obama’s numbers. Obama is now at 243 electoral votes, and for the first time Romney is shown to be above 200 at 206 electoral votes.

In the last 48 hours, Obama’s numbers dropped again from 247 to 243 votes. Romney’s went from a little above 190 to 206.

So I find it interesting that people like Kim Strassel are trying their best to convey the idea that the Romney Campaign is flagging. It isn’t.

It’s Obama that can’t fill campaign stops with supporters, and it’s Romney and Ryan that are being enthusiastically supported with overflowing crowds.

There are other related polls linked at the bottom of the Huntington Post projection page.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

[Dysart]

I'm broadly skeptical of polls this far out, but there is some— I think justifiable— concern over the tenor and strategy of Romney's campaign. Both are correctable. The first step in solving a problem is identifying it, and I fully agree with the view he needs to step up his game a good deal. Be bold, passionate, and forthright about his political objectives or go the hell home! This is not in his nature, I get that, but he will need to extend himself beyond his comfort zone and he would also be well-served to reevaluate current prevailing, lackluster guiding opinions on how he should conduct his campaign. I'd pull John Sununu up from attack dog to lead adviser.

At some point denying all polls we don't like and ignoring our senses about the overall state of the race becomes foolish. My gut tells me Romney will not win if he doesn't decisively recommit himself to winning this thing.

[MNJohnnie]

Ok, so I should ignore my analysis of the available data and trust “gut instinct”. The only problem with that is if the available data is correct the gut instinct advice probably is bad advice

[Dysart]

Let me try again. The battleground states are close by their nature. We know that. And I believe the Rasmussen poll is far more reflective of the current state of the race in Ohio than other dubious polling rackets, for example, which shows a 1 pt margin as you say. My assertion is that Romney needs to launch himself over Obama, and he can do this by strengthening his campaign with a full court press and strong inside game...that's my point. Playing it safe ( which few insiders/outsiders would argue) is too risky and places the ball in Obama's court to win with the last shot. Hope you liked the basketball analogy! I suspect Zero's basketball skills are something of a myth but one should never underestimate his opponent-- esp in warfare.

I'd also like to remind you the politics is a highly emotional concern most notably for the electorate. Don't discount it.

[matginzac]

Thanks for this...I’ll watch it too.
Only probs I have with it...in my probably delusional way...is FL leaning Obutta as well as WI ...don’t think so.
Also, VA a toss up ...don’t think so.
NM is a quandary...if Martinez is so popular and really campaigns for Mitts in NM, she might make the diff.
Not scientific but just my hopes....

[matginzac]

Thanks for this...I’ll watch it too.
Only probs I have with it...in my probably delusional way...is FL leaning Obutta as well as WI ...don’t think so.
Also, VA a toss up ...don’t think so.
NM is a quandary...if Martinez is so popular and really campaigns for Mitts in NM, she might make the diff.
Not scientific but just my hopes....

[LibLieSlayer]

strassel... it is your gay kenyan fudge packer that is slipping in the polls and in world opinion. FU strassel.

LLS

[DoughtyOne]

I disagree with parts of it too. Still, it is what it is coming from HufPo.

[DoughtyOne]

BTW: Glad the link is helpful to you. Enjoy...

[matginzac]

Great to be a part of the FReeper Nation!
And, though it’s from Huff Po, it looks a lot like Rove/Trippi crap on Fox...
For the longest time, they’d give SC to Obutthead without there being a poll since last fall!
Every time I see them with the electoral college map, I turn the TV off.

[DoughtyOne]

The very next morning after I gave you this link, the HufPo projection changed radically in favor of Obama. I don’t know what they’re smoking over there, but I don’t believe anything near this radical has actually taken place in the political universe. It’s more or less an unintended joke at the expense of their credibility. And then there’s the real possibility that this was at the demand of the DNC. Check it out for a good laugh.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

[matginzac]

Thanks...
HuffPo drives me insane...won’t read it usually.

[DoughtyOne]

Same here. I do pay attention to certain things, like polls to see how they are gaming us. This one just went crazy the morning after we talked. Almost makes you think someone saw our conversation.

[matginzac]

*big smile*
If only!

[Teacher317]

I worry about th fraud far more than the polls.

Just think about this. Those who voted for Obama in 2008 and won't in 2012... that's a really big group.
Those who did not vote for him in 2008, but will in 2012... that's a really small group (gotta be mostly new-voting kids 18-21 who were too young in '08).
Everyone else will stay the mostly the same. Any who voted for McCain will vote for Mitt. Few additions or subtractions there.

Obama has to either import or manufacture the votes to make up for the millions who no longer are voting by racial guilt, those millions who see what his version of Hope and Change actually brings, and those millions who are no longer moved by the "historic" vote for someone with a higher melanin content in their epidermis. They'll try, of course... but I don't see it going well for them.

[DoughtyOne]

Agreed.