I’m nervous. We lost a point. Could be statistical noise. Maybe not.
The events in the Middle East should have hurt Obama. Doesn’t look like that is happening. Maybe the opposite, the rally ‘round flag phenomenon, is the reality. We will know for sure in a few days. Expect major phony polls supporting the “Is Obama Getting a Boost from the Mideast Crisis” meme.
“One of the proudest things of my three years in office is helping to restore a sense of respect for America around the world, a belief that we are not just defined by the size of our military.” Barack Hussein Obama
The real key is what occurs in the 11 swing states that Rasmussen tracks but is only available via subscription. Those states have 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
“If I don’t have this done (economy fixed) in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Barack Hussein Obama
I’d bet they’re being forced to show R in the lead, though not nearly as much as reality, given that there are still no internals listed for these numbers.
This shows the effectiveness of the media undermining Romney with such a vengeance. They have to work so hard at it now, their slip is showing. Plus, it’s having less and less effect. The events themselves are likely to play out in a way that harms Obama.
These pols prove if you only sample Black Democrats then Obama pulls ahead.
So the variance in these polls is akin to flipping a coin 1000 times every day. Sometimes you are going to get heads more often then tails. Other times you are going to come up tails more often. This is known in the statistics world as "noise" - that is to say, each particular set of data is not precise. That's why Obama comes up 46% on some days and 43% on other days. The truth is somewhere in the middle. On any given day, the luck of the draw may show Romney or Obama up or down.
My point is, there is not a significant amount of people out there who are bouncing back and forth between Obama or Romney based on the news cycle. The "rally around the flag" concept is nonsense. Obama can bomb Iran tomorrow and nobody committed to vote Obama out of office is going to suddenly support him for re-election - and vice-versa with respect to Romney. Same with the "job reports". The next job report could show a jump to 10% unemployment and Obama's supporters will still stick with him. It is laughable when the mainstream media point to a "favorable" jobs report as a reason for an Obama bump.
The only thing to take away from this flood of mostly useless polls (the only polls worth our time are state polls of likely voters and weighted according to state demographics) is the fact that they show a consistent 5-8% of voters who are either undecided or prefer another candidate.
Folks, those represent Romney votes. Let's make that perfectly clear. The Obama-loving mainstream media will use every trick in the book to show a "horse race" when in fact, the race is pretty much over and is Romney's to lose. The trick they are using right now to keep the race close is with these undecided voters. And just forget about those who "prefer another candidate." Who? We dont' have a Ross Perot as a third party choice this time. The fringe candidates out there are not even going to get 1% of the vote. So more than 99% of the voters out there are going to choose between Obama and Romney.
So why so many undecideds? This is because a good number of voters who plan to support Romney do not feel comfortable making their views known. Could be they are afraid of being considered racist or it just could be that, understanding the intolerance of the other side, they would rather just not go on the record as opposing the current administration. Like in Nazi Germany, there are a lot of people who are just afraid to speak out against the government and wish to keep their political views to themselves. But on November 6th, they will send a message with their votes.
Bottom line is you just cannot have a civil conversation about politics with your neighbors or co-workers anymore. I actually have neighbors that refuse to talk to me or associate with me because I put Republican lawn signs in my yard. I don't dare bring up politics in the workplace either. Years ago, I remember having discussions with co-workers all the time on politics. These days, it can be a career-ender so I keep my mouth shut.
Obama is consistently 42-47% in these polls. He's not going to get a significant amount of those calling themselves undecided. He's going to lose. If he was going to win, he'd be 50% or above by now.
Ras is gonna get a call from the AX man
Everyone stay strong! Good news:
1. The Marxist is sub-50% and holding steady.
2. The “bounce” is history.
3. Economic news is bad and very likely to stay that way.
4. The Middle East conflagration is, at best, a wash for the Marxist. Dead ambassadors, burning embassies, and rioting Arabs can never be spun as positive to the average American.
5. Gas prices are on an escalator up.
I’ll take a 52-48 win and squeeking out an electoral college edge. Obama is a tougher-than-average, ineffective, Dumbocrat president simply because he is black and perceived as “cool”. Many of the white soccer moms always coveted his type, and voting for them makes them feel less racist. This will be tough slog and we have to stay positive to keep our side enthusiastic.
Live by the polls DIE by the polls! I’m telling you the pollsters are NOT gauging or formulating the amount of ANGER by regular folk! Polls aren’t registering the RED HOT ANGER folks have towards this black turd, they aren’t even aware those folks are taking with them two or three people to the polls and are willing to walk through exploding dynamite to vote. The silent majority aren’t answering their phones, I’m one of them, I’m telling you OmuslimO and his pals WON’T KNOW WHAT THE HELL HIT THEM on Nov!!! TAKE HEART the Patriotic Americans WILL NOT STAY HOME come voting day.....Walker’s victory is an EXAMPLE of turnout, reason why the left communist PIGS are shaking in their loafers!!
2. Reagan won with 50.7% of the popular vote in 1980. I'd settle for that.
The most important thing is that Obama’s post-Convention bounce did not last. He’s been under 50% for most of the last 3 years. What’s going to happen in the next 6 weeks to change that?
Forget about the head to head match up with Romney. If you look at the polls over the last 3 years, there is a disconnect between Obama’s low approval ratings on the issues, and his decent personal approval ratings. This is a result of the American people suffering while the MSM buries every last piece of bad news and doesn’t lay a glove on Obama.
On election day, the American people will no longer be choosing between “how do like Obama’s policies?” and “how do you like Obama as a person?”. Instead, they’ll be choosing if they want to spend another 4 years at the mercy of Obama’s policies.
How does obama’s approval rating stay essentially constant through the whole Libya/middle east disaster (from the 12th to today?
The fact that Romney doesn’t have a huge lead over Obama makes it clear (to me at least) that there are too many Americans feeding out of the Govt trough and that majority doesn’t want it to change. One of my conservative friends was just telling me last night that Reagan was trailing Carter at this point in his campaign, but I take no comfort in that, because we are in the digital age and in the 1980s we didn’t have access to information like we do today. We all know the facts, we all know what’s at stake.
This country has too many people that want the freebie govt handouts. We have a country filled with people that do not care that we are falling behind the rest of the world.
You look at job approval numbers and basically half this country thinks Obama is doing a good job, yet an overwhelming portion thinks Congress is terrible, but not “their guy”. They keep electing the same “do-nothings”. This will not change until the weight of this burdensome portion of our population causes the total collapse of our Nation. When it returns to days that are worse than the Great Depression, then we might be able to rebuild this once great Republic.
I’ll paraphrase the same comment I made regarding the gallup poll. These are national polls that don’t matter worth a hill of beans. The president is selected by the EC, not the popular vote. Look at the Ras polls for about 6-8 states and ignore the rest.
I also think that this election will be decided in the midwest, not the south.
The beauty of 2% is that 1% of that total is in California alone, therefore many close states will flip to Republicans. It does no good to waste 10% of your total vote in Kalifornia, New Yuck, and Illy-nos....
We’re winning. Good poll.
don’t forget the house and senate.
No “D” in office. Vote them out.