Posted on 09/16/2012 1:34:46 AM PDT by tsowellfan
Republican activists are incredulous: Why can't Republican Mitt Romney seem to break open a tight race with President Barack Obama given the nation's sluggish economy and conservative enthusiasm to beat the Democrat?
"He ought to be killing Obama, and he's clearly not doing that," said 32-year-old R.J. Robinson, one of the thousands of activists attending the annual Values Voters Summit this weekend. "He should be doing better."
Added Mike Garner, a 27-year-old hawking "Reagan was right" buttons at the meeting: "If Romney loses this election, the party really needs to do some soul-searching."
Their sentiments were echoed in interviews with more than a dozen GOP activists and social conservative leaders who attended the annual gathering focused on social and cultural issues and sponsored by the Family Research Council.
The summit was filled with rhetoric meant to fire up the party's base voters. Romney needs them to turn out in force at the polls in November and, between now and then, to convince others to do the same through extensive get-out-the-vote grassroots canvassing in swing-voting states...
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Top 10 reasons Freepers dismiss polls they don't like: 10. It's a weekend poll. 9. Most conservatives lie to pollsters. 8. Most Republicans I know only have cell phones. 7. I've never gotten called once for a poll. 6. A friend who works for the Democrats say their internal polling looks awful. 5. The media is trying to help the Democrats. 4. It's registered voters, not likely voters. 3. The Wilder/Bradley effect. 2. The internals are all wrong! 1. Our guy isn't leading so it can't be right.
I also think that he isn’t out there as much as you’d expect. Most people don’t really have any impression of him or think he’s OK. The lousy timing of the convention with the hurricane hurt more than most people will admit. That mushy “undecided” crowd at least knows Obama and generally like him. They won’t chance a vote on someone they don’t really know.
Dems are frequently oversampled because they tend to turn out in higher numbers, even if they’re dead.
Agreed. Also, there's not excitement for Romney for a whole host of reasons but if they could fabricate excitement for Obama, we should be up to the task for Romney.
I didn't want Romney either but I have signs in my yard and I'm talking to as many people who will listen. This is it, our last chance, please don't blow it. Get to work for Republicans no matter how you feel about Romney. Obama is hoping to finish the country off this time, please help stop him.
But, but...that's what Ryan's on the ticket for - to appease those unwashed tea party people and sway them to vote for Mitt.
...which is both sad and scary as they basing their vote on personal likability and not on who is better for the nation.
Apparently he has no great interest in doing that. In fact, I thought that was the whole point of nominating him: Give Obama his second term and then maybe the GOP can come up with a 2-termer in 2016.
No way black turnout will increase this year.
I live in Atlanta and the only Obama yard signs I’ve seen are in white neighborhoods.
I work in a large government office building with majority black co-workers. Last Friday I walked around the parking lot during lunch to check bumper stickers. I passed by hundreds of cars and the only Obama sticker was on a white guy’s car—next to his I Support Gay Marriage bumper sticker.
In 2008 there were a lot of Obama stickers.
Why? The polls are slanted, the media are working double time against him, everything he says is called a Gaff, The Unions are doing what they can to poison the well. Just wait till the Debates! Obama without a teleprompter—armed with just talking points—look to see Media hacks try to ambush Romney and toss soft balls to Obama—BUT it will not work. The wheels are coming off the Obama/Socialist wagon.
I pay no attention to polls, of course I’ll vote for him. It’s just that to say he will produce 12m jobs was just so political it was ridiculous.
Right it is the voters fault the GOP gave them someone they can not vote for....what a stupid argument. The party did not want those voters and now you cry about it????
Romney will in this election without them...he just will not win a second term because by then the dems will have someone they can vote for.
““crisis” a day, “
to keep everyone from talking about how bad the ECONOMY is
I go by the Diogenesis Poll. Once I see Diogenesis post a Romney/Ryan2012 bumper sticker somewhere on FR, it will be then and only then that I know Obama is toast.
The key is understanding the turnout model the poll is using. In 2008 the turnout was +7.6% dem, in 2010 it was +1.3% R. In the last Rasmussen survey 8/2012 the party affiliation is +4.3% R.
Most polls are using turnout models that vary from +6 to +10% D. This is why Obama is leading in most polls.
The latest NYT/CBS poll has Obama +3 among likely voters 49-46%. Their turnout model is +6% D close to the 2008 turnout model. 35D/39R/32I for their likely voters in this poll.
I have a spreadsheet I use to see the results if the 2010 turnout model is used or any other model.
Below is the CBS NYT poll 'normalized' to reflect both the 2010 turnout model and the current Rasmussen party id.
<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->
| Poll Normalizer | ||||||
| Media Poll results | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Romney | 5.0% | 90.0% | 51.0% | |||
| Obama | 92.0% | 7.0% | 40.0% | |||
| Other | 2.0% | .0% | 2.0% | |||
| Undecided | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | |||
| Poll Sample | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Corrected turnout model | 34.7% | 36.0% | 29.3% | |||
| Corrected Results | Inc Undecideds 3/2 challenger | |||||
| Romney | 48.6% | 51.21% | ||||
| Obama | 46.7% | 47.54% | ||||
| Other | 1.3% | |||||
| Undecided | 3.6% |
So using the 2919 turnout model Romney instead of being behind 3% is up by 2%, if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger Romney is up almost 4% and 'wins' 51.2 to 47.5.
Let's look at the result if the current party affiliation is applied to the CBS/NYT numbers
<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->
| Poll Normalizer | ||||||
| Media Poll results | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
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| Romney | 5.0% | 90.0% | 51.0% | |||
| Obama | 92.0% | 7.0% | 40.0% | |||
| Other | 2.0% | .0% | 2.0% | |||
| Undecided | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | |||
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| Poll Sample | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Corrected turnout model | 33.30% | 37.60% | 29.20% | |||
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Corrected Results | W Undecideds 3/1 to challenger | ||||
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| Romney | 50.4% | 53.1% | ||||
| Obama | 44.9% | 45.8% | ||||
| Other | 1.3% | |||||
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| Undecided | 3.5% |
We see in this case Romney is up by 5.5% not including undecided voters and 7.3% if undecided voters break 3/1 for the challenger.
This result is very close to the projection of the Univ of Colorado economic prediction from a few weeks ago, which has been correct since 1980.
Using this spreadsheet with a variety of polls from the CNN to ARG to Reuters the results have been very similar, WHEN THE SAME TURNOUT MODEL IS APPLIED TO THE RESULTS.
That is almost all these polls, have the candidate winning their party supporters by ~90 to 5%, the independents are going anywhere from +10-+15% for Romney over Obama.
The media gets the narrative they desire by using the turnout model that fits their narrative.
Having trouble with the preview
It doesn’t really matter if Mitt is winning in the polls or not; I expect there will be no election.
Obama’s Muslim outreach fails! The Arab world is ablaze with anti-American riots! US diplomats are slaughtered! And they are calling Romney the foreign policy bungler?
What Conservative could beat Obama? Why couldn’t he beat Romney?
Mike Rowe gave Romney some top notch advice but it appears that Romney only saw an opportunity for a photo op of himself reading the advice before moving on. Romney would be well served by bringing Rowe in, having a sit down and listen with the guy and maybe taking him along on some of the factory appearances.
http://www.mikeroweworks.com/2012/09/the-first-four-years-are-the-hardest/
Rowe runs counter to every elitist academic in the country and says that a college education for all isn’t the salvation our political class would like us to believe.
Mike Rowe Speaks To Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee [05-11-11]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h_pp8CHEQ0
A great thread with a speech by Rowe on his realization that groups like PETA, and OSHA get it wrong a lot.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2650612/posts
You are correct. I had an anti Obama sticker on my car. When I came back from a business trip I had 2 flat tires and my car keyed with — I got hope—
Because of the economy I can’t have can’t have my cars destroyed. I have to keep them running.
Well, how many mass rallies has Mitt actually done? The answer is very few, and here's the reason why (from back in February):
Romney lays out economic vision - in mostly empty stadium
Mitt Romney Rents Out Football Stadium for Speech to Handful of People
After this, Team Romney made a conscious decision to NOT engage with the mass public.
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