9 for 9?: Economic model correctly picks last 8 presidents, predicts Romney win

Washington Times ^ | 08/22/2012 | By Valerie Richardson

[SeekAndFind]

DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.

Ken Bickers, professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Michael Berry, political science professor at the University of Colorado Denver, announced Wednesday that their state-by-state analysis shows the Republican capturing a majority of electoral votes.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Mr. Bickers, who also serves as director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties. The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.

"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Mr. Bickers said.

While noneconomic factors such as incumbency can play a role in the election's outcome, the professors found that there was no statistical advantage conferred by the location of the party's national convention, the home state of the vice-presidential candidate, or the party affiliation of state governors.

[RightFighter]

47.1 percent...... Where have I heard that number?

[C210N]

On the one hand, this corroborates all the polls that are special-sauced with overly high ‘rat sampling.

On the other hand, if one were to graph over the 8, now 9 predictions, over time of the growth of the welfare state, from about 25 $billion to 700% higher today (see some FR thread earlier today), you’d see a line going up and up and see us reaching the 50% point. Above 50% is uncharted territory, beyond which is Greece, beyond which is fundamental transformation, beyond which is financial collapse, beyond which is a new country no longer having ANY semblance to a constitution, individual liberty, property rights.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SeekAndFind.

The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties.

Heh heh... great comment too. 47 percente ping!

[SeekAndFind]

RE: 47.1 percent...... Where have I heard that number?

You’re right my friend. That is the number TODAY. Four more years of Obama and that will be 4 percentage points higher, by which we shall have reached a point of no return.

[Emperor Palpatine]

I think I’ll play 471 tonight.......

[Leaning Right]

Well, the economic model is probably going to get this one wrong. Why? It's because the model assumes that the majority of voters will blame their economic problems on Obama.

IMHO, that ain't gonna happen. Put Obama cultists together with the independents who will be swayed by the lying MSM, and you've got a Democratic win come November.

[upchuck]

Is there an update to this month old story?

[itsahoot]

Why? It's because the model assumes that the majority of voters will blame their economic problems on Obama.

Bob Dole redux. Vote for me, I am not the other guy.

I was disgusted when every candidate and talking head all agreed ABO, which in my opinion was an implied endorsement of Romney, go ahead GOPe and push him to the front, we will be on board. AArrgghhhh.

[ModelBreaker]

So was the model developed on existing data up to 2012? If so, unless it was very carefully developed, it is worthless.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Is there an update to this month old story?

______________________

It says -— The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.

Unless there is any MAJOR improvement in the above factors between last month and this month, I don’t see any significant changes in the model’s prediction at all.

[hawaiianninja]

Thanks for the re-visit, SeekAndFind. Provided that Conservatives come out in droves to the point where the 0 and his communist comrades can’t win by cheating (I’m already convinced they will cheat, anyway), I’m hoping for a Romney landslide.