Washington Compost in VA: 0bama 52% Romney 44% - No internals available

Washington Compost ^ | 9-18-12 | Laura Vozzella, Dan Balz and Jon Cohen

[ShovelThemOut]

If there are no internals available, then it is most likely a crap poll that over-samples Dems.

[napscoordinator]

This is hilarious. Obama won Virginia by 6.5 points in 2008 and that was a huge Democratic year. There is no way Obama beats Romney by 9 points, win or no win.

[napscoordinator]

I can believe those numbers.
Think about it, Virginia has how many hundreds of thousands of Gov’t jobs?
They want Zero to keep the paychecks rolling in.

I don’t know why people keep saying that government workers are in the bag for Obama. Government workers have not had a raise since Obama has taken over and not only that but they are not getting another raise for at least 2 or three more years. I think you guys over think the government worker thing.

[longtermmemmory]

we have union thuggery and multistate voting.

I one democrat politician emboldened enought is voting in two states, how about those unionistaas?

Obama is a student of “the chicago way” with fraudulent voting at the center of power.

[Yashcheritsiy]

This poll has been posted three times today. I don’t know of two other polls. This is a poll of ADULTS and without knowing anything else you need to adjust it by 4. Then, on top of that, they OVERSAMPLED Dems to make up the difference. WaPo and WSJ have both been very poor, as they were in 2008.

The latest partisan breakdown I've seen in Virginia for voter identification has it 39% R vs. 36% D. This means that while Democrats are undersampled by 4%, Republicans are undersampled by 15%. Hence, an 11% net deficit for the GOP. Indies are thus oversampled by 10%. Given that Indies are leaning slightly Romney, but not enough to overtake an 11% deficit among the total electorate, oversampling them seems to be a new way that the MSM pollsters have cooked up to try to get around the charge of straight-up Dem oversampling (have noticed this in a few other polls the past few days).

Adjusted, I'd guesstimate that the actual lie of the land in VA is closer to a 49%-47% lead for Romney.

[1035rep]

Democrat 32

Republican 24

Independent 35

No Pref./Other 5

Don’t know 4

[LS]

Thank you. That was my intuition, but honestly I’m getting punchy trying to keep these lying POSes straight.

[ScottinVA]

The ComPost sampled D+8. Virginia`s registration is R+2. This “poll” was not even in the ballpark of reality. The accompanying story read like a breathless brag piece we see with PPP polls. The “media” polls should be tagged with a (D) before inclusion onto RCP.

[AdamBomb]

IT is bad for the Kenyen when pollsters are still at this late date not switching to the likely voter model....

1) sleestack creatures
2) adults
3) registered voters
4) likely voters

Compost still stuck on #2

[PA Engineer]

Compost still stuck on #2

Agreed. The 10% not voting (internals) in the last election was very revealing.

I wonder if this polling manipulation could backfire and suppress democrat turnout instead. Heck, if Obama is way ahead why bother voting?

[matginzac]

Yes we can...
Same here in Hampton Roads...
More Romney signs though not a lot...
And one Obummer sign seen...hmmmm...gay marriage?

[jmaroneps37]

No internals means a fake poll but, this is excellent news since the REAL voter break down is 37.6% Republican, 33.3% Democrat and 30% Independent.
As per Carville poll Romney leads Independents by 15 and CNN has it at 14 (54/40).
CNN also has Republican enthusiasm 6 points higher than Dems enthusiasm.
Right now Obama is NOT winning any group he lost in 2008; not doing better with any group he did win ( including Jews, women, young, Blacks and Hispanics) nor is he closing with veterans which he lost last time and will lose even bigger this time.

[stratman1969]

They caught on and won’t publish the interals. That’s why we call them the ComPost.