Posted on 09/20/2012 1:55:49 PM PDT by upchuck
There’s been a lot of debate about just how much Jewish support Barack Obama is going to lose this year. But other than some truth-challenged blind partisans like Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, few have challenged the assertion that the president is likely to get fewer Jewish votes in November than he did in 2008. The only question his how much of a drop off can we expect?
The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life gave us another clue today when it released a graphic showing a marked decline in Jews identifying as Democrats over the past four years. In 2008, 72 percent of Jews identified themselves as Democrats or as leaning toward the party while only 20 percent were linked to the GOP. In 2012, those numbers have gone to 66 percent for the Democrats and 28 percent for the Republicans. If the presidential vote reflected party affiliation, that would mean the president is certain to lose significant ground from 2008, when his share of the Jewish group has been estimated to be from 74-78 percent (Democrats claimed 78 percent four years ago but now say the number was smaller)–though not as big a drop as some surveys have seemed to indicate. Nevertheless, this is important since it is likely that many voters, especially Jews who have historic ties to the party, might be willing to vote against President Obama while still calling themselves Democrats. But no matter how you slice it, this seems to set Democrats up for their worst showing among Jews since 1988.
There are a couple of interesting points to be gleaned from the Pew survey.
The first is something that has been noted about other polls that break down the potential presidential vote by ethnicity and religion. Though the president seems likely to lose ground from the better than 53 percent of the total vote he received in 2008, his losses among Jews are greater than those in any other group. Given that it is impossible to argue that Jews are more likely to dislike his economic policies or his health care bill more than any other religious or ethnic groups, the only possible explanation for this decline is his policy toward Israel. Dissatisfaction with the president’s problematic relationship with Israel — highlighted again last week as he snubbed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and refused to set red lines about Iran’s nuclear program — is the most likely explanation for an otherwise puzzlingly high rate of disaffection on the part of Jewish Democrats.
The other is that the current numbers actually show a slight improvement for the president since 2010 when the margin between the two parties was actually smaller, with a 63-31 percent gap between Democrats and the GOP. Clearly, Democrats have gained ground all across the board since their midterm debacle. The boost for the Democrats could also reflect some minimal success for the administration’s Jewish charm offensive that seemed to have affected their Middle East policies until the latest dustup between Obama and Netanyahu.
These numbers are by no means conclusive, and there’s no telling whether the president might continue to gain ground among wavering Democrats and independents in the coming weeks. But these results also show that it is entirely possible that the president’s share of the Jewish vote may turn out to be on the low end of the range of possible outcomes rather than, as Democrats have argued, on the high side.
Indeed, since there is still a stigma in some Jewish quarters about openly expressing support for conservatism or the Republican Party, it may be that the Jewish vote for Obama may turn out to be much lower than the figure for affiliation. If so, that will be a signal victory for the GOP and help change the outcome of the election in closely fought states like Florida or Ohio.
...down from 75% (D) all the way to 73%, likely.
Their liberalism will, when push comes to shove, continue to trump both religion and common sense.
Keep dreaming.
Thank God !
Almost ever Jew I know has been a big Obama supporter .
They claim t not worry about Israel . I heard one say that “it is impossible for any Jew to ever vote for a Republican”
Why !? I ask....Jews have for centuries been referred to as a ‘stiff necked people “ The condemnation of God through the Prophets themselves . Time and again . And these days so many try to still prove that to be true .
I offer that if any American Jew supports Barack Obama , they no longer should call themselves , or be considered as Jews . They are traitors to both the Jewish people and the State of Israel . They are part of the problem and the threat and thus joined with the enemies of America and Israel . Wake up ! wake up now...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJdH-PgmeK8&feature=plcp
Just remember, this poll is all in the name. Pew polls are disparaged when they are against what we want. We need to remember how bad they are when we want the results they show as well.
Meaningless, even if true. What that particular secular, self-loathing 2% of the country does at the ballot box is insignificant — even in Florida — compared to what they do 24/7 in the ‘mainstream’ media.
Been hearing this for years. The Jewish population votes their majority with the Dems.
Jews Identifying Less With Democrats...
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That will happen when Hell freezes over and I don’t see any ice yet.
Never forget, the ACLU was founded by Jews.
simple reason: Joel Pollak types have many Jewish kids,
DWS types dont.
My MIL lives with us. She plays in several mahj groups. The majority of the players are Jewish. They are about 3 to 2 Dem to Repub. There is a decided lack of enthusiasm for Obama this time around. No bumper stickers no yard signs.
If they just stay home that will be good enough.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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If Breitbart succeeds in getting its hands on the khalidi tape, that is all she wrote.
Never forget, the ACLU was founded by Jews.
Per Wikipedia, the ACLU was founded in 1920 by Crystal Eastman, Roger Baldwin and Walter Nelles. I could find no indication that any of the 3 were Jewish (Eastman’s parents were from the Congregationalist clergy).
Hey, Leo, we Jews here on FR don't fit that that template. And there are at least a couple of hundred of us.
That will happen when Hell freezes over and I don’t see any ice yet.
You'll see a little ice this year. The Jewish vote for president will be roughly 60% for Zero, 40% for Mitten.
Actually, I think it might be closer to 55% this time around. I don’t necessarily see that many more Jews voting Pub; rather I see a whole lot less voting for Obama, either not voting the top of the ticket, or just staying home, especially if they are elderly, such as down in Florida. At least that is my fervent hope.
Actually, I think it might be closer to 55% this time around. I don’t necessarily see that many more Jews voting Pub; rather I see a whole lot less voting for Obama, either not voting the top of the ticket, or just staying home, especially if they are elderly, such as down in Florida. At least that is my fervent hope.
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