Posted on 09/24/2012 6:06:42 AM PDT by blam
BOB JANJUAH: The S&P 500 Will Collapse To 800
Sam Ro
September 24, 2012
Bob Janjuah, the bearish contributing strategist at Nomura, just provided an update to his September 18 note.
In a nutshell, Janjuah has pulled the plug on his bearish tactical call that stocks would fall 20% to 25% this year.
From his note today:
"As discussed in that note, based on weekly closing levels at the end of last week, my stop loss on my risk-off "short S&P500‟ trade, initiated last month on 21 August at an S&P500 level of 1425, has been triggered."
Nevertheless, Janjuah remains extremely negative on stocks, but he cautions investors about going short right now.
"From here, I would currently be flat or neutrally positioned. On a multi-month timeframe – and before the next major multi-quarter bear market phase starts and which I still expect to result in an 800 S&P - the upside in global equities is in my view pretty modest, around 10 %, based on underlying growth, debt and policymaker credibility concerns. However, until and unless the S&P index demonstrates a weekly close below 1450, I believe it is premature to go aggressively short risk – tactically at least – at this precise moment. That opportunity is unlikely to be more than a few months away, and could even present itself in the next fortnight or so. Data, news flow, price action/volumes/market leadership and abrupt changes in market sentiment and belief in policy/policymakers will be the drivers."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
he needs to fire his hairdresser and open up a fortune telling booth with his little crystal ball
Never trust a Paki.......
Dear Bob,
Go home and get some rest. You look terrible.
Best wishes,
Rex
I honestly think no one knows what is going to happen.
Bob who ?
He looks like a smarmy pedophile.
You must make a lot of money in the markets, if you know what is going to happen in the future....right?
I did it in 2003 and the average annual return over that period of time has been 20%+ (was higher up to the soft spot the last year in the metals that looks to be ending.)
>> I honestly think no one knows what is going to happen.
LOL!
I hold a variant of that view. I think they ALL make a lot of sense! EVERY ONE of them knows what is going to happen! Inflation, deflation, stagflation, noflation, they are ALL going to happen, as predicted!
...problem is, they can’t pin down WHEN what they think is going to happen is going to happen. :-)
Well, this guy is saying stock prices will collapse.
But if stocks represent real companies with physical assets like buildings, plants, goods in warehouses, then if the government prints money they will be worth more in nominal terms, not less. Every time a new QE is announced, the market does go up.
As does commodity prices/inflation. The Average Joe-six-pack is getting hammered.
Insurance and property taxes in my county shot up, grocery bill has gone up, energy, gasoline....
Consumers are deleveraging debt and trenching in as the cost of living increases and unemployment rises.
Not saying this guy is right or wrong, but the markets will see a pullback due to the lack of true organic growth in the economy.
Our country is shifting dollars around from one market to another, one asset class to another and the fed/treasury are printing and pumping dollars into the market.
Looks like a bubble to me.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.