Politico-GWU poll: Race still a virtual dead heat (D-43/R- 40/I-15 with leaners among likely voters)

Hotair ^ | 09/24/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[scbison]

Still think you need take 2 to 3 points way from Obama and give to Romeny because people are lying to Pollsters and don’t want to admit they are not voting for Obama.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

I realize there are a lot of stupid people in America but I refuse to believe there are that many stupid enough to re-elect someone whose first term has been such a spectacular failure.

[JerseyDvl]

Yeah right PoliticHOES!

“Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events”.....

Sliding where??? From down 6 after the convention to TIED?!
These people are so ridiculous.

[nhwingut]

Note the latest trick now with pollsters. While they reduce the bogus skewed partisan splits (here it is a reasonable D+3 - although I still say they are in for a shock that will show R+3)). They now reduce Independents (who are breaking for Romney) to give Obama the lead.

A Democrat POTUS nominee cannot lose indies and win the election.

2000 Gore (Indies +1) (Popular Vote Margin E) (Diff -1)
2004 Kerry (Indies +2) (Popular Vote Margin -3) (Diff -5)
2008 Obama (Indies +8) (Popular Vote Margin +7) (Diff -1)

TIP: Take a look at independent margin, add 1-2 for GOP. And that is your margin of victory, either way.

Example here: Obama is down 2 with indies. He will lose by 3-4 points.

Example B: If Obama were up 5 with indies. He would win by 3-4.

Keep eye on the Indies. Ignore everything else. No matter what they do, they cannot impact how a certain demo will vote.

[ConservativeStatement]

The sad thing is that some people feel more secure around a less intelligent person (Obama) because it makes them feel better about themselves. Same rules applies with trashy Bill Clinton being President. the sensation is “if the Pres is a dirtball, then what I do is OK, too.” As Rush LImbaugh said many years ago: “It is easy being a liberal, it is tough being a Conservative.”

[nhwingut]

And, BTW, Romney, who supposedly hates the middle class, is up by 15 points with middle class in this poll. LOL!

[GilGil]

www.unskewedpolls.com has Romney up 7.8%

[pgkdan]

Looks to me like they’re under sampling Independents.

[SeekAndFind]

Here’s the assumption the site you mentioned : www.unskewedpolls.com makes:

The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.

SO, THEY WORK WITH THE ASSUMPTIONS THAT THERE ARE 4.3% MORE REPUBLICANS WHO WILL VOTE THAN DEMOCRATS, WHILE MOST OTHER POLLS ASSUME THE OPPOSITE.

The all important question then is this -— WHOSE ASSUMPTIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY?

We might WISH that www.unskewedpolls.com is correct, but wishing does not necessarily make it so.

What GOOD REASONS are there to believe that www.unskewedpolls.com weighing assumptions are correct?

[KeyLargo]

Paradoxical Quote of the Day from Ben Stein:

“Fathom the hypocrisy of a government

that requires every citizen to prove they

are insured. . . but not everyone must

prove they are a citizen.”

Now add this, “Many of those who refuse,

or are unable, to prove they are citizens

will receive free insurance paid for by

those who are forced to buy insurance

because they are citizens.”

[mkboyce]

“I-15”

So independents don’t count? What a sham of a poll.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Anything coming out of Politico is skewed left. Romney is leading by 14 pts in the middle class. Thats very telling of what the likely truth is.

[InterceptPoint]

They now reduce Independents (who are breaking for Romney) to give Obama the lead.

I have noticed that as well. It's been going on for about 2 weeks now.

And your analysis of the Independent vote is right on. It is the key to this election. So expect the MSM to start lying more and more about it as we move into the final weeks of the election cycle.

[Nervous Tick]

>> this survey shows Romney winning the Catholic vote by eight points, 51/43, but the Baptist vote by only one point, 49/48

Hmmm... I could *understand* 43% cluelessness from the Catholics, who like the Jews have a soft spot for marxists...

, but what kind of idiot Baptist would give Barack Obama the time of day? 48%?? I’m not sure I believe that.

Unless it’s skewed by BLACK baptists, but there aren’t THAT many of those — are there?

[Adriatic Cons]

Still think you need take 2 to 3 points way from Obama and give to Romeny because people are lying to Pollsters and don’t want to admit they are not voting for Obama

I hear that a lot... but why would they even take the poll, if they don't want to be honest? Why not just refuse/hang up? Sorry, I'm not convinced.

[SeekAndFind]

Baptists are the largest Protestant grouping in the United States, and the Southern Baptist Convention is the largest Protestant denomination in the U.S., with 16 million members.

The largest denomination among African Americans is the National Baptist Convention, with 7.5 million members, along with the smaller but more liberal Progressive National Baptist Convention (PNBC), with over 2000 churches and a total membership of 2.5 million.

I have spoken to a lot of Southern Baptists and I am quite certain that only a HANDFUL will vote for Obama. Their main concern with Romney is his MORMON faith.

Black Baptists are turned off by Obama’s stance on gay marriage and his extreme stance on partial birth abortion ( where he would not even support a bill protecting an infant surviving a botched abortion ). However, they still feel some kinship with him based on skin color ( no getting away from that ).

As for the progressive baptists, there is no doubt that they will go with Obama.

It remains to be seen if Southern Baptists can overcome their concern with a Mormon president and turn out in huge numbers and if Black Baptists are sufficiently turned off by Obama’s liberal stance on social issues to either vote Romney or stay home.

[LibLieSlayer]

November 6th we shall see who lies for a living and who does not lie... and you lying MF’ers had best understand... we will never forget who lied to us and we will get justice.

LLS

[MNJohnnie]

Looks to me like they’re under sampling Independents.

Yeah I cannot understand why the supposed "Republican" pollster allowed this sample. This is the third poll I have seen doing this. They know the bloggers watch the samples so they have started oversampling Dems and Republicans and under-sampling Independents. The only justification for this sample is to get Obama to the magic 50% number.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: “I-15”

So independents don’t count? What a sham of a poll.

___________________________

Your concern is VERY PLAUSIBLE and LIKELY CORRECT.

According to Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

As of 2010, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents.[3] By 2011 Gallup found that Americans identifying as independents had risen to 40 percent. Gallup’s historical data show that the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in 60 years. This increase came at the expense of Republican identification, which dropped to 27%, while Democratic identification held steady from 2011. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party’s core identifiers, for 2011 the parties ended up tied at 45 percent.

TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT — THERE ARE MORE REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS IN AMERICA THAN DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS.