Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Dick Morris: Romney Pulls Ahead
dickmorris.com ^ | 26 September 2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:31 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men.

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: morris; obama; polling; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-71 next last
To: Hojczyk

Nineteen eighty was the first presidential election I voted in. It was a landslide. Romney is not going to win by a landslide.


21 posted on 09/26/2012 9:40:38 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

These polls are simply campaign fundraising for their messiah.

Pray for America


22 posted on 09/26/2012 9:41:58 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Kay
On Oct 24th 2008 he wrote

For those who would rather not find out, it is particularly important to redouble our efforts for John McCain and to battle for each Senate seat. McCain is only seven points behind – not an insurmountable margin. A good final week could save the free enterprise system. We owe it to our future to try.

He had the 7 point right. The rest was cheerleading.

23 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:00 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: piasa; ncalburt

I am in Hollywood. And I base my expertise here on the fact that I lived here for several years.


24 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:10 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: malkee

where are you again Fl expert ????

Maybe Chicago ??????


25 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:30 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: ncalburt

I have a hard time believing you have relatives in Pennsylvania. They must live somewhere in the middle of the state. Otherwise they would feel the Obama influence.
And once again, I am in Hollywood, FL. Not Chicago.


26 posted on 09/26/2012 9:45:45 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: bigbob
The NYTimes polling analyst meanwhile tweeting up a storm of propaganda tonight: Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight The polls could definitely be overestimating Democratic turnout. However, just as likely, they could be underestimating it. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight What's turnout going to be like? WHY DON'T WE TAKE A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY AND FIND OUT! Not up to the pollster to decide for the voters. 12h Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight I trust pollsters more when they show an OCCASIONAL outlier. It shows you that they're not cheating. 12h Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Once pollsters start to act like turnout is a matter of subjective opinion, the whole point of polling is defeated. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Thinking every poll but Rasmussen is skewed is literally as delusional as believing that 9/11 was a conspiracy.
27 posted on 09/26/2012 9:46:25 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: malkee
Broward county the most left wing county in FL ???

Its the center of left wing hell in the state .

28 posted on 09/26/2012 9:46:31 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: malkee

Nothing but Communists in Hollywood! And Clint Eastwood. And you, of course.


29 posted on 09/26/2012 9:48:52 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: malkee
You are surrounded in Hollywood Fl .
Its the most corrupt Dem party cesspool in FL.
NO wonder you feel that way .
My family is from Sarasota.
30 posted on 09/26/2012 9:49:51 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Senator Goldwater

Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.

He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.


31 posted on 09/26/2012 9:50:04 PM PDT by untwist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Senator Goldwater

Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.

He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.


32 posted on 09/26/2012 9:50:45 PM PDT by untwist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ncalburt

Yes, tell me about it. Why do you think I left. (Only part of the reason,actually.) I don’t miss the political aspects of that. But it kills me about free republic. I haven’t been on here in a while, and every time you express an opinion that doesn’t tow the party line you get jumped on. I’m not saying I wish Obama would win. I hope he doesn’t. I hope Dick Morris is right. But I remember when Dick Morris guaranteed Hillary Clinton would become president in 2009. (That was in 2007). He’s been wrong before, and I think there’s a likelihood he’ll be wrong agin.


33 posted on 09/26/2012 9:51:02 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: malkee

This election will be decided in the first 15 minutes, of the first debate.

Unfortunately, all the big media stories about how amazingly Obama did in the debate will be written by close of business tomorrow.


34 posted on 09/26/2012 9:52:02 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 9YearLurker
Nate Silver formerly employee at Daily KOZ !
The brilliant one that predicted the Dems would keep the House in 2010.
The all knowing one that predicted Gov Scott was in big trouble in the WI recall ? What is the story with Jewish Leftists pushing a Marxist Muslim ??
35 posted on 09/26/2012 9:56:02 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: malkee
That's a good point about Hillary.
Where are you in PA ?
36 posted on 09/26/2012 9:58:18 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: MacMattico

Correct. Fox had better sever all ties with him if Romney loses...Morris is going all out and all in on this one. The best night of Dick Morris on television was when Alan Colmes called him out on how much he is wrong and how many times he has been wrong and put out a long list and Morris was ready to walk off set.


37 posted on 09/26/2012 10:00:55 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (In a world where I feel so small, I can't stop thinking big.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Senator Goldwater
I wish the Romney-Ryan team was not so far behind in the polls in OHIO, but then I realized that we have the Three C's, Cincinnati, Columbus and Cincinnati with their big inner city Democrap voting blocs. Add those to the big voting blocs of inner city Toledo,Dayton,Youngstown, and the whole Northern Ohio area, and all the college student Obobo lovers, white guilt people, and you will see that we (Conservatives,Republicans) are outnumbered. I wish it wasn't true, but wishing isn't going to help. Too many people getting the freebies! I'm not giving up, just stating my opinion.
38 posted on 09/26/2012 10:01:06 PM PDT by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: timestax
We are dissing the facts of the adviser's of two Presidents Bill Clinton who won two elections and GW Bush.

I see the lack of support of people who in 08 would debate you on Obama

I am not seeing it in 2012

39 posted on 09/26/2012 10:11:03 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: Jim from C-Town
No Way O’Bumbler walks away with this election. Name ONE, JUST ONE, person who voted for McCain that has decided that O’Bumbler has done such a good job

True but irrelevant. A fair number of elderly voters from four years ago are dead. Four new years of younger voters are eligible to vote. The voting age population has grown and shifted in demographics. Obama will lose a lot of his supporters. But he has to lose an awful lot before Romney wins. I think that will happen but it's an uphill struggle.

40 posted on 09/26/2012 10:11:22 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-71 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson