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U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won (Dems can stay home)
Washington Examiner ^ | 09/27/2012 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 09/27/2012 4:20:58 PM PDT by nhwingut

They won't officially declare the election over, but the experts at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Thursday declared that President Obama's surge in key battleground state polls has pushed him well over the magic mark of 270 Electoral College votes, meaning his reelection is all but a lock.

"We are not calling the race," said the experts, but the polls currently show "a decisive Obama victory."

The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.

Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: academicbias; mediabias; polls; taxdollarsatwork; youpayforthis; zogbyism
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This is getting ridiculous... We have had 4 years of economic malaise not seen since the Carter days. It looks like we're on the verge of another recession. And yet Obama is going to win in a landslide?

I have never seen anything like this. It's bizarre. It does not make any sense, historically or statistically.

I need to call it a day.

1 posted on 09/27/2012 4:21:04 PM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

Please let’s push this...Democrats CAN stay home, Yes They Can LOL


2 posted on 09/27/2012 4:22:33 PM PDT by blueyon (The U. S. Constitution - read it and weep)
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To: nhwingut

And the Mets could never win the World Series in 1969, despite the media.


3 posted on 09/27/2012 4:23:36 PM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: nhwingut

Larry Sabato aka Larry Sabotage .....


4 posted on 09/27/2012 4:23:44 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: nhwingut

Larry Sabato aka Larry Sabotage .....


5 posted on 09/27/2012 4:23:56 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: nhwingut

May they have a Harry Truman moment.


6 posted on 09/27/2012 4:24:53 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: nhwingut

Give enough people free Obamaphones and Obama money and that is pretty much all it takes. If Obama wins re-election America as we know it is finished


7 posted on 09/27/2012 4:24:58 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

We are bound to hear a few progressive pundits say that to cut spending we should cancel the election.


8 posted on 09/27/2012 4:25:09 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: nhwingut

bullsh!t


9 posted on 09/27/2012 4:25:18 PM PDT by tgusa (gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .......)
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To: MissMagnolia

Isn’t that the guy who looks like Mr. Creosote?


10 posted on 09/27/2012 4:27:05 PM PDT by null and void (Day 1346 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Obama, a queer and present danger)
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To: nhwingut

BTW, how much wealth has toupee Larry Sabato created while he sucks and lives on on the VA taxpayer teet?


11 posted on 09/27/2012 4:27:12 PM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: nhwingut
Can we hack those 12 million Obamaphones and remind them to vote on the 7th? :-)>

Just kidding!!!!

12 posted on 09/27/2012 4:27:19 PM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: nhwingut

And the University of Colorado says Romney will win:

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says


13 posted on 09/27/2012 4:28:28 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: nhwingut
Good, remember this. Cause when election day turns out quite different we are going to go back and tuck these predictions so far up their backsides their names and professional reputations will be the punchline of political jokes for at least a decade. They don't seem to realize that they are going WAY WAY out on a limb with these predictions. This time we aren't going to simply forgive and forget after the election There is going to be a reckoning after election day with these propagandists. Photobucket
14 posted on 09/27/2012 4:28:53 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Signalman

And unlike Larry Sabato, their predictions have been correct in every presidential election since 1980.


15 posted on 09/27/2012 4:30:08 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: null and void

LOL - that would be correct!


16 posted on 09/27/2012 4:30:47 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: DallasBiff
Larry Sabato at UVA in 1974, a student politico pundit.


17 posted on 09/27/2012 4:32:24 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut
It was predicted when LBJ implemented the "Great Society" programs.

Ain't it great!

18 posted on 09/27/2012 4:34:33 PM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

If Obama wins re-election America as we know it is finished
*******
This is no longer the America I grew up in. Secular America has lost its way. Sadly, it’s going to take a major and painful crisis to wake people up if we are ever to reverse course.


19 posted on 09/27/2012 4:38:21 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: nhwingut

I picked a bad day to give smoking crack


20 posted on 09/27/2012 4:38:51 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: nhwingut

These idiots are simply setting up a scenario where they can present a case of massive voter fraud after Romney wins the Presidency.


21 posted on 09/27/2012 4:38:55 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: blueyon

Im all for that. Conservatives should moan and groan about the helplessness of the situation, then go out in droves to vote for Romney.

I’ll start. “Oh Woe is me, it looks like Obama is going to win. I may as well stay home.”


22 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:33 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: blueyon
Please let’s push this...Democrats CAN stay home, Yes They Can LOL

I like it. If, by some chance, their votes are actually needed, they can go to the polls on Wednesday to vote. :=)

23 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:45 PM PDT by Bob
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To: blueyon

This is the Trojan horse. I honestly think democrats are so over playing their hand that most democrats will stay home because they have it in the bag!


24 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:59 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: nhwingut
"Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today"

That's the key element. I'll concede that Obama probably has an electoral edge at this point. Even with oversamping in the polls, we knew going into this race that the GOP path to 270 was a lot more linear than Obama's. That's the case simply because of the deathgrip his side has on California, New York, and a few other EV-rich states. There are several things to take heart in, though.

1)Most polls show Obama's lead in these states as close and something that can be overcome. We haven't had the debates yet, nor has Romney fully unleashed his ad campaign for the final stretch.

2)Six weeks is a long time in politics. Romney has to continue to be more aggressive, but it's time enough to get 270 EV's in the red column.

3)The media and Obama have thrown everything they possibly could at Romney, and he's still hanging in there. That's a marked contrast from McCain who never seemed to be able to find the bottom. Admittedly that's not the strongest selling point for a Romney win, but after being smeared with everything imaginable, that he's still very much within striking distance in the must-win states suggests that Obama hasn't closed the deal yet and his support may be softer than is being reported.

BTW, I do agree that it is confounding that Obama isn't down by double digits. The economic numbers are terrible, his foreign policy has been largely unsuccessful, and so on. It's a crazy scenario quite unlike any I have seen either.

25 posted on 09/27/2012 4:40:47 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: nhwingut

Cool. Obama has won. He can go back to golfing now.

What the hell has happened to Sabato?


26 posted on 09/27/2012 4:42:11 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: MissMagnolia

He called the election for Kerry in August of 2004.


27 posted on 09/27/2012 4:45:23 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: Starboard

Check this out

Gallup Poll: Dems Long For The Days Of Communist Dictatorships, Almost Half Want One-Party Rule In America…

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/09/27/gallup-poll-dems-long-for-the-days-of-communist-dictatorships-almost-half-want-one-party-rule-in-america/

And your right..maybe I just never paid much attention before but I have never seen anything like this..people actually EMBRACING Communism..what the hell has happened to my country!!


28 posted on 09/27/2012 4:45:38 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

If I didn’t fear the pergola from UVA then this malarkey from them isn’t going to upset me.


29 posted on 09/27/2012 4:48:57 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: nhwingut

If I didn’t fear the pergola from UVA then this malarkey from them isn’t going to upset me.


30 posted on 09/27/2012 4:48:57 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: rushmom

Good ol’ Larry - hope his recent prognostication is as accurate as the one in 2004 :-)


31 posted on 09/27/2012 4:49:06 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: nhwingut

LMAO that guy couldn’t get laid in a Nevada Whorehouse with a thousand dollars in his hand.


32 posted on 09/27/2012 4:53:19 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: nhwingut

Information warfare at its best. Kind of makes one wonder why we ever play the game in the first place.

As always folks, let’s play the game....and win!

JoMa


33 posted on 09/27/2012 4:56:32 PM PDT by joma89
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To: nhwingut
I have never seen anything like this. It's bizarre. It does not make any sense, historically or statistically.

You're absolutely right. It's unprecedented. But if it happens (a decisive Obama victory)it will mean the country, and by that I means its people, will have gone beyond the point of no return. But we will have to wait until November 6th to know.

34 posted on 09/27/2012 5:02:46 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: nhwingut
Of course this "conservative" journalist inside Washington D.C did not find a space in his article to mention that these polls are insanely oversampling democrats or way undersampling Republicans and Independents...

I really despise the so called conservative media inside Washington D.C....

35 posted on 09/27/2012 5:03:59 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: Starboard; Sarah Barracuda

America as it was envisioned by the founders was finished the day the Confederates fired on Ft. Sumpter. When Truman initiated the “National Security State” in 1947, that was the second to last nail - Johnsons “Great Society” was the final nail. IMO


36 posted on 09/27/2012 5:07:18 PM PDT by atc23 (The Confederacy was the single greatest conservative resistance to federal authority ever.u)
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To: nhwingut

sabato is a gay progressive obamabot.

LLS


37 posted on 09/27/2012 5:09:03 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: nhwingut

I honestly believe that obama is losing so bad that the media and liberals have gone stark raving mad, foaming at the mouth, and baying at the moon. I don’t believe for even a millsecond that obama is even close in this race. I think it is going to be a landslide for Romney/Ryan and the tingle running down Matthews leg will be him pissing himself. People, quit believing the spin and the bogus polls. STOP IT!


38 posted on 09/27/2012 5:20:23 PM PDT by lwoodham (I am Andrew Breitbart. Don't doubt me on this.)
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To: blueyon

“Please let’s push this...Democrats CAN stay home, “

Better, since the turnout is going to be so big this year, Republicans vote on tuesday and all democrats vote on wednesday


39 posted on 09/27/2012 5:21:08 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: nhwingut

Poor choice of haircut, I deem, even for the 70s.

Cheers!

40 posted on 09/27/2012 5:26:43 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda
“If Obama wins re-election America as we know it is finished.”

I agree. But I don't think he's going to win. I think what we are seeing is psy-ops from the propaganda wing of the DNC (i.e., the MSM).

41 posted on 09/27/2012 5:35:28 PM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: nhwingut
I have a great idea.

Let's make every polling organization have some skin in the game.

First rule - you cannot change the projected out comes by more than 5 % over the life time of your polling. If you do your organization is barred from conducting polling for the next two national races (4 years). This would prevent the over sampling that we see today. It would also cost organizations more money than they could expect to gain from liberals. Second rule - if your final prediction is off by more than your poll's margin of error you are likewise barred from conducting polling for the next two national races. Again, make the polling organizations pay for playing with the numbers. If your business or mine plays with numbers the way the various polling organizations do we would be out of business in a heart beat. Why should they be any different? IMHO polling has become nothing more than the extension of the liberals.

Unless there is a penalty for being drastically wrong organizations conducting polls will continue to manipulate the results to please their political masters.

42 posted on 09/27/2012 5:35:51 PM PDT by Nip (TANSTAAFL and BOHICA)
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To: ought-six

I agree, I see it going either way..If Obama wins I wouldn’t be shocked, knowing that so many people in this country want Communism..but if Romney wins I wouldn’t be surprised either because I see what the media is doing as a typical leftist tactic..and that if Romney does win they can scream RACISM and demand that the election goes to the Supreme Court and Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will call for mass riots, I can see it all happening. I just wish I were a fly on the wall in the Romney campaign so that I knew what polls they have


43 posted on 09/27/2012 5:38:47 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“Dems Long For The Days Of Communist Dictatorships, Almost Half Want One-Party Rule In America...”

This is the 1/2 taking from the rest of us...OF COURSE they want “One Party” rule!!!!


44 posted on 09/27/2012 5:41:19 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: nhwingut

nobody seems to want to mash here for some reason...

http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm


45 posted on 09/27/2012 5:42:14 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: nhwingut

Lets see I haven’t met 1 McCain Voter changin allegiance and Voting Obama I have heard Hundreds of people Not Voting O In Pa a 2nd time and Givin Romney a shot. University Kids are apathetic , Blacks are a little disillusioned, the energy factor is in Republican Favor. I can’t believe Unemployed are Gonna want to Vote Obama This is ridiculous a Journalism Malpractice


46 posted on 09/27/2012 5:42:52 PM PDT by philly-d-kidder (AB-Sheen"The truth is the truth if nobody believes it,a lie is still a lie, everybody believes it")
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To: nhwingut

more Democrat push marketing through “polls” - they, working together with the WH, are using polls to convince people to vote in the direction of the polls they are reporting, particularly working on anyone who, as much as they may not like Obama, is “not convinced”; trying to convince the unconvinced to side with who the polls want them to side with - on the psychology that the polls are telling them that’s the way so many of their friends and neighbors are voting

many of the sheeple ARE influenced by polls


47 posted on 09/27/2012 5:44:06 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: mo

In the article it states that a few Republicans polled want the same thing..the second I read that I said “Where, find me one Republican who wants Communism!”
The Democrat Party HAS turned into the Communist Party, they have actually been that way for a while but we are seeing them ALL come out of the woodwork now, they dont have to hide it anymore, being a Communist is not something for them to be ashamed of anymore, especially with a Communist being in the White House


48 posted on 09/27/2012 5:44:26 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda
"If Obama wins re-election America as we know it is finished."

If he wins, I don't think that is what finishes us off. I think it just shows that we were already finished. A diagnostics tool. Patient has been dead for a while.

I pray that there is still a pulse.

49 posted on 09/27/2012 6:01:24 PM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: philly-d-kidder

It’s certainly NOT over...but...with Obama having the Northeast and the far West...and Romney having the South...if Obama can checkerboard the Midwest...it’s over :^(


50 posted on 09/27/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by DJlaysitup
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