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U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won (Dems can stay home)
Washington Examiner ^ | 09/27/2012 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 09/27/2012 4:20:58 PM PDT by nhwingut

They won't officially declare the election over, but the experts at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Thursday declared that President Obama's surge in key battleground state polls has pushed him well over the magic mark of 270 Electoral College votes, meaning his reelection is all but a lock.

"We are not calling the race," said the experts, but the polls currently show "a decisive Obama victory."

The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.

Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: academicbias; mediabias; polls; taxdollarsatwork; youpayforthis; zogbyism
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To: nhwingut

These idiots are simply setting up a scenario where they can present a case of massive voter fraud after Romney wins the Presidency.


21 posted on 09/27/2012 4:38:55 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: blueyon

Im all for that. Conservatives should moan and groan about the helplessness of the situation, then go out in droves to vote for Romney.

I’ll start. “Oh Woe is me, it looks like Obama is going to win. I may as well stay home.”


22 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:33 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: blueyon
Please let’s push this...Democrats CAN stay home, Yes They Can LOL

I like it. If, by some chance, their votes are actually needed, they can go to the polls on Wednesday to vote. :=)

23 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:45 PM PDT by Bob
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To: blueyon

This is the Trojan horse. I honestly think democrats are so over playing their hand that most democrats will stay home because they have it in the bag!


24 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:59 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: nhwingut
"Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today"

That's the key element. I'll concede that Obama probably has an electoral edge at this point. Even with oversamping in the polls, we knew going into this race that the GOP path to 270 was a lot more linear than Obama's. That's the case simply because of the deathgrip his side has on California, New York, and a few other EV-rich states. There are several things to take heart in, though.

1)Most polls show Obama's lead in these states as close and something that can be overcome. We haven't had the debates yet, nor has Romney fully unleashed his ad campaign for the final stretch.

2)Six weeks is a long time in politics. Romney has to continue to be more aggressive, but it's time enough to get 270 EV's in the red column.

3)The media and Obama have thrown everything they possibly could at Romney, and he's still hanging in there. That's a marked contrast from McCain who never seemed to be able to find the bottom. Admittedly that's not the strongest selling point for a Romney win, but after being smeared with everything imaginable, that he's still very much within striking distance in the must-win states suggests that Obama hasn't closed the deal yet and his support may be softer than is being reported.

BTW, I do agree that it is confounding that Obama isn't down by double digits. The economic numbers are terrible, his foreign policy has been largely unsuccessful, and so on. It's a crazy scenario quite unlike any I have seen either.

25 posted on 09/27/2012 4:40:47 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: nhwingut

Cool. Obama has won. He can go back to golfing now.

What the hell has happened to Sabato?


26 posted on 09/27/2012 4:42:11 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: MissMagnolia

He called the election for Kerry in August of 2004.


27 posted on 09/27/2012 4:45:23 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: Starboard

Check this out

Gallup Poll: Dems Long For The Days Of Communist Dictatorships, Almost Half Want One-Party Rule In America…

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/09/27/gallup-poll-dems-long-for-the-days-of-communist-dictatorships-almost-half-want-one-party-rule-in-america/

And your right..maybe I just never paid much attention before but I have never seen anything like this..people actually EMBRACING Communism..what the hell has happened to my country!!


28 posted on 09/27/2012 4:45:38 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

If I didn’t fear the pergola from UVA then this malarkey from them isn’t going to upset me.


29 posted on 09/27/2012 4:48:57 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: nhwingut

If I didn’t fear the pergola from UVA then this malarkey from them isn’t going to upset me.


30 posted on 09/27/2012 4:48:57 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: rushmom

Good ol’ Larry - hope his recent prognostication is as accurate as the one in 2004 :-)


31 posted on 09/27/2012 4:49:06 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: nhwingut

LMAO that guy couldn’t get laid in a Nevada Whorehouse with a thousand dollars in his hand.


32 posted on 09/27/2012 4:53:19 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: nhwingut

Information warfare at its best. Kind of makes one wonder why we ever play the game in the first place.

As always folks, let’s play the game....and win!

JoMa


33 posted on 09/27/2012 4:56:32 PM PDT by joma89
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To: nhwingut
I have never seen anything like this. It's bizarre. It does not make any sense, historically or statistically.

You're absolutely right. It's unprecedented. But if it happens (a decisive Obama victory)it will mean the country, and by that I means its people, will have gone beyond the point of no return. But we will have to wait until November 6th to know.

34 posted on 09/27/2012 5:02:46 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: nhwingut
Of course this "conservative" journalist inside Washington D.C did not find a space in his article to mention that these polls are insanely oversampling democrats or way undersampling Republicans and Independents...

I really despise the so called conservative media inside Washington D.C....

35 posted on 09/27/2012 5:03:59 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: Starboard; Sarah Barracuda

America as it was envisioned by the founders was finished the day the Confederates fired on Ft. Sumpter. When Truman initiated the “National Security State” in 1947, that was the second to last nail - Johnsons “Great Society” was the final nail. IMO


36 posted on 09/27/2012 5:07:18 PM PDT by atc23 (The Confederacy was the single greatest conservative resistance to federal authority ever.u)
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To: nhwingut

sabato is a gay progressive obamabot.

LLS


37 posted on 09/27/2012 5:09:03 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: nhwingut

I honestly believe that obama is losing so bad that the media and liberals have gone stark raving mad, foaming at the mouth, and baying at the moon. I don’t believe for even a millsecond that obama is even close in this race. I think it is going to be a landslide for Romney/Ryan and the tingle running down Matthews leg will be him pissing himself. People, quit believing the spin and the bogus polls. STOP IT!


38 posted on 09/27/2012 5:20:23 PM PDT by lwoodham (I am Andrew Breitbart. Don't doubt me on this.)
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To: blueyon

“Please let’s push this...Democrats CAN stay home, “

Better, since the turnout is going to be so big this year, Republicans vote on tuesday and all democrats vote on wednesday


39 posted on 09/27/2012 5:21:08 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: nhwingut

Poor choice of haircut, I deem, even for the 70s.

Cheers!

40 posted on 09/27/2012 5:26:43 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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